It should have been a velvet divorce, like the Czech-Slovak split; East Ukraine and West Ukraine; referendum and no death. But no, TPTB wanted war, mass death, graft, and to break the EU-RU economic integration. Nothing more than murder for power and money at a national scale. Do they imagine that Eastern Europe can’t see this for what it is?
"Do they imagine that Eastern Europe can’t see this for what it is?"
They do not. Rather, eastern europeans and especially their rulers know where power, money and status lie and they will do whatever they needs must to do remain aligned with such things.
problem here in eastern europe is that in most cases after 89-90 the supression apparatus of the fallen communist regime came to power and consolidated their positions by letting westerners to spoliate the population while getting rich from intermediating this.
there isn't not even one democracy in east europe; nevermind that this is true for the western part, the reasons are different.
You appear to be conflating two separate issues. One is whether eastern europeans crave western status, money and prestige - they do, as you admit.
The other is whether they want to die in Ukraine, when they don't actually like Ukrainians much, anyway.
Anyway, as Goering said, it is the elites and not the people who decide policy. It's not as if polish or romanian units just decide to go join the war.
"We got around to the subject of war again and I said that, contrary to his attitude, I did not think that the common people are very thankful for leaders who bring them war and destruction.
'Why, of course, the people don't want war,' Goering shrugged. "Why would some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best that he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece. Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship.'
'There is one difference,' I pointed out. 'In a democracy the people have some say in the matter through their elected representatives, and in the United States only Congress can declare wars.'
'Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country.'"
thing is goering was a stupid fuck, why don`t you take advice from budanov or other mystic warlord wannabe.
i`m not conflating anything, the reality is that nothing short of forced mobilization could make romanians to fight for ukraine and the 'pro-western' faction is just an oligharchy supported by a tiny but vocal minority of useful idiots.
and this makes all the difference, ukraine main problem is manpower and they won`t get it from here; also they went as far as to annul the elections bc the guy who would have probably won them made it clear that he will end ALL kind of support for ukraine including the logistics corridor.
tl;dr if eastern europeans had really supported ukraine you would have saw a lot of them at the front; instead you see shit bought from americans with money forced from the pockets of an unwilling population which starts to grumble more and more.
It does not matter what Eastern Europe sees. They have no agency in this matter, only to submit to the genocide that is currently underway. The oven doors have been closed and sealed shut. The fires are about to be ignited. Eastern Europe's only protection is the casket they are trapped inside of. Proxy wars are usually like this, willingly complicit acts of suicide.
Finaly someone that have seen the same example from history on how things are done ! Or at least let it in limbo for eternity like Transnistria - but no , some clowns thinked they will outdo Napoleon with the help of other clowns .
Q - do you really think AFU KIA are only 150k or so? Dynamics on battlefield & effects in Ukrainian society suggest a total casualty figure of well over 1mn. Wartears has KIA at ~750k, for whatever thats worth
I would have thought KIA closer to 1.5m and injured 1m. Modern weaponry (drones, flame throwers on trenches) is particularly lethat. Russia out fires Ukraine in shells by 10:1 and more in bombs.
But the biggest 2 factors are a) medical - poorly trained men, not very fit trying to save each other and with limited mobility back to hospitals - many WIA will turn quickly into KIA
and b) tactics - if you fight to the end for every village town or city you lose and throw in more reserves you will lose large numbers of men. In contrast Russia, fighting the war properly, have abandoned every town or city within hours, leaving Ukrainians only able to laugh at how they ran (but no victims to show off - Kherson, Izium etc).
What do you know about Ukrainian society? I live in Ukraine. Most of the people don't notice war. If casualties were like you saying people would panic. It's nothing like that. Casualties are way lower on both sides that people would like to imagine
I think Serge here knows that the Ukr casualties are higher, but wants to avoid being blamed a pro-Russian propagandist. It is a tight rope you have to walk nowadays if you write about anything that is controversial.
New EU law for example allows journalists or basically anyone who writes public articles to be jailed for 'misinformation' , if the information is basically something that the EU dislikes their subjects reading.
There was a group who earlier in 2025 estimated AFU losses via Ukr graveyard expansions and they got the figure 700 000. Don't know if that is accurate or not. Of course how many additional bodies still lie in the ground on the battlefield or mister Z has not bothered to accept in exchange is another question.
New document leak has surfaced yesterday : supposedly multiple hacker groups worked together and hacked Ukrainian general staff network and digital record servers, according to the leak there is 1,72 M Ukr soldiers KIA total. 625 K so far this year alone.
If true, no wonder that the pint-sized cocaine pianist Z is trying everything he can to give fake numbers and euro idiots like Von Lying & co are seemingly in panic.
Ukulele can claim anything they want - as the saying goes, the first casualty in war is truth But how could Russia's KIA possibly be 3-4x higher than Ukulele's? It's just not realistically possible, given Russia's overwhelming advantage in firepower, manpower, logistics, medical, support, etc.
I know that’s what I argued. The person in question argued he based it off memorials and never really gave the source. He said Russian Kia is 250k-400k with 1m total casualties and Ukraine was around 120k Kia etc. I mentioned Russian superiority in x amount of fields such as artillery and fabs. But his argument was Ukraine is defensive and has the drone superiority. I argued it’s probably the only field they may be equal but Russia has an advantage etc. Being defensive can also be bad if you’re sitting in a known location that can get fabbed down before a Russian even shows up lol. I don’t think he really thought it through and claimed Ukrainian artillery is better, they have himars, and he gave up that Russians have the fabs advantage after claiming both sides have them which somehow equaled out(dude was dumb). It was a tiresome debate ngl
Western sources frequently quote the fake numbers because they really don't want to admit that Ukraine is close to collapse. Fxxx they don't even want to admit the Ukraine could possibly lose.
Sounds like they were a pro-Ukulele propagandist. Maybe one of those “NAFO” retards. The same type of people who will tell you to not trust your lying eyes and believe a man can become a woman, a woman can become a man, men can give birth, an untested “vaccine” is “safe and effective,” etc. All they do is lie and gaslight, figuring if they lie and gaslight enough, people will start to believe their lies are truth.
Yeah it was strange to me because Russia basically has the advantage in an almost all major relative fields in war. I even used Mediazona as a baseline but I don’t even take their number serious it’s just a middle ground for an idea.
It shouldn't be strange to you. You're trying to make a rational argument against a propagandist. Why bother? Just state the facts and call them out for being a lying propagandist. I add insults, but that's just a personal preference. (They deserve it.)
There are ways of squaring this circle: we’ve all heard about massive desertion rates. But how do we know, really? A guy disappeared, did he go AWOL; or is he pushing up sunflowers somewhere in the field? If desertion rates were as high as claimed, we’d see military police combing cities looking for the scofflaws. All is not well in okraina
The desertion rate is too high to go after all of them. In current Ukrainian law, a first-tome desertion is not a criminal offense, so they just desert and go home.
There's quite widespread half-a-joke that everything bad Ukraine claims for Russia - is actually true for Ukraine (with quite a lot of real life examples). So probably 250-400k kia and 1M casualities is the number for Ukraine, and 3x-4x also real, but for the other side too..
reality is that given the training , the bizarre defend at all costs Ukraine approach, the 10x shelling capacity, the manouvrability and the simple concern for their own troops, that Russian KIA at one tenth of Ukrainian levels is precisely what one would predict.
Idk I’m just a little skeptical that the numbers are that far apart in terms of Russian casualties to Ukrainian casualties. Russian assaults are still getting swarmed with drones. Mines are still present and Ukrainian artillery is still present. I’m comfortable with a 1 to 2 ratio at best. If it’s 4-5 or higher I’d be shocked. Now I could see it being higher if you account for deserters then 3-5 to 1 makes sense.
Remember that the massive meat attacks by Russia are claimed by Ukraine, not substantiated by Russian reports. Ukrainians drones are successful only in killing made up attackers.
More likely it is 4 Russians on motor bikes followed up by 30 or so FABs - huge great bombs with accurate steering which if they hit the right targets kill dozens at a time.
Deserters.
I'm sure plenty want to desert. It isn't that easy though. You could risk goig through the frontline to become a POW, but I would imagine we would have seen Russia bragging of 10s of thousands of POWs if they actually existed. 100s of thousands even.
On the other hand anyone getting leave would surely make a break for a European border (Romania, Poland, Hungary, even Belarus or Russia). And I the first of those 3 countries would surely downplay the numbers.
So AWOL rather than outright desertion.
There are 2 simple back of envlope checks.
Ukraine started with 600k (some say 700k) troops, And while many then wer not trained as front line infantry, all are expected to do that role or drone steering now. They have added surely 2 million, maybe more. They admit to being outnumbered by Russians now and likely only have 3-400k.
Where have that 2-3m gone?
(While it is often claimed that there are 3 WIA to 1 KIA, historical data suggests that 2 out of 3 WIA are back in service within 20 days.)
The second is grave yards, and remember many dead bodies are not recovered. Google Ukrainian cemetaries.
“…the Alaska meetings are being decried by the Europeans and the Professional Fascism Noticers as a redux of Chamberlain’s Munich Agreement with Hitler, but this does not really matter. In the same sense that, for the alcoholic it is always five o’clock somewhere, for a certain type of person it is always 1938. ”
You write beautifully (e.g. your sentence and paragraph structure and word choice and pacing), and your grasp of both the big picture (e.g. military operations and general military science) and technical detail (e.g. tactical innovations in this war and the current territorial adjustments on the ground) are substantial, relevant, and much appreciated.
You avoid the 'sensationalism of events' and unsupportable 'extrapolation' (political and military and cultural) that so often mar commentary on this war. You are not 'over-excited' about 'what is transpiring' militarily or politically and are careful to state what is known (to date), how that might change (in either direction giving recent trends), and what the implications of those events might be for the future of military operations and the overall war effort for both sides.
You are 'balanced' in your coverage (militarily & politically). You caution against unlikely predictions for the immediate future (e.g. an imminent Russian advance to the the Dnieper), while still noting that such things are not entirely out of the realm of possibility (although unlikely) -- thus helping your audience understand the severity and implications of the current Ukrainian operational crisis (and future next steps). You also put this current Ukrainian operational crisis in the context of prior operational contexts in this (and other) wars, further enhancing the 'educational' effect.
Your concise (but accurate) discussion of how 'atttrition' 'eats away' at an army is outstanding and is relevant to many other historical time periods and militaries as well. People with experience in military service (or in other large, complex organizations) can relate and understand what you are describing (although sadly many, with that background, will not), and 'new-be's' without such context will learn about this relevant and important topic from your solid and short, yet insightful, description of this phenomenon.
Embedded in your writing is a continuous 'thread' of historical context (which relates this war to prior wars and this article to your prior articles about war and conflict) which is noteworthy (because it speaks well of your overall body of work and of you intellectual thesis about warfare) and because it makes this article about history and warfare itself (and not just about this week's events in Ukraine).
Clearly I am a fan of your efforts -- but if someone is doing something right, I believe it is 'ok' to 'call them out' on that matter. Thank you for your accurate reporting, sound analysis, and worthwhile commentary.
Martin, let me second your arguments. I come away from each Big Serge contribution with a deep sense of satiety. By that I mean I don’t feel the need to ask one hundred and one follow up questions for the sake of clarity and comprehensiveness. It’s all there: complete, concise, conclusions reached with faultless logic; far superior to the drivel I’ve read in The Economist.
The fact that Ukraine explicitly refuses to discuss handing over the Donbas a) despite it being primarily a majority pro Russian entity b) despite the obvious disintegration of what is effectively the 3rd Ukrainian army in this war, and c) despite the near drying up of Western military support equipment; suggests Zelensky is under the full control of the EU and the nationalist western Ukrainian cadre of power brokers. He cares nothing for his people. The EU care nothing for his people. The UK has wagered its international prestige on the support of Ukraine despite the obvious domestic problems now soaring out of control.
I am not a military expert. However I have been following this war for 1-2 hours a day for 3 years now. I am in no doubt that NATO expansion US CIA neocons and the pathetic EU leadership WEF cadre are responsible for this dammed war.
I started off neutral in 202 and struggled to understand why Russia would invade Ukraine. I now know why. They had to make the first step before UK sent its massive army into the Donbass. A Ukraine accession to NATO would have been just a matter of time. Given the anti Russian sentiment present in the Ukraine it would have been a clear and present danger to Russia going forward.
I am now 100% behind Russia in the war. Given I was 100% behind NATO through the 2000s, that simply shows I chose to take the red pill......
When Ukraine was neutral from 1992 to 2014, no one was killed or maimed from battle. No infrastructure, nor property was destroyed. Get out of this ruinous security competition and return to peaceful neutrality. May you be bored exquisitely by a return to peaceful neutrality and potential prosperity.
I was very disappointed when Switzerland essentially relinquished the neutrality it had held for many, many decades to effectively join the anti Russian cadre a few years ago.
The plan ever always only was for the United States to ride to the rescue, europeans being geriatric metrosexual nonces and ponces so effeminate that they make Liberace look like V.G. Zaitsev by comparison.
The europeans are working hard to bring Trump on board.
The Europeans have cultivated and groomed queers and fruitcakes for government positions for many years. The only difference between years past and now is that they pretended to be real men in years past, whereas now they openly act like faggots.
Not to mention europeans have a long tradition of groveling, bowing and scraping before incompetent and/or senile monarchs and getting them to sign off on whatever the courtiers (themselves a bunch of barely closeted queens) wanted.
Europeans don't even die well. Spectacular ski accidents? Flaming Formula One car wrecks? Fifty bike pile ups? Flying speed boats? Drowning in bath tubs filled with rose petals? Sure. But just simple, stepping off the planet deaths? No.
Obviously seems "Russia holds the cards" but there may be things in the background not yet revealed. Seems to me this would BE a fair deal.
1. All the places by virtue of referendum chose to become part of Russia or more closely in Russia's interest - whether they be "free states" of their own accord or officially deemed part of Russia, get the desires of the referendum votes.
2. The whole world acknowledges Crimea chose to be part of Russia and that is de-facto already in place.
3. Odessa, though she beckons steadfastly remains as she is - "alone and lost in confusion" - to be solved in the future one hopes when the catacombs there are more fully explored and then choices for resolution get made after proper consideration.
4. The place once referred to as "the *kraine" is completely emptied of military establishments be they bio-labs, bases, or otherwise - a complete removal of all the nefarious forces and verified strictly and with ruthless justice. A "no-military" zone.
5. A world-wide effort is made to return the fine soil there back to being a bread-basket it was made to be on the steppes - and that is the best use of the place - is it not? IS IT NOT?
~
If not this, then the whole of the place once referred to as "the *kraine will likely become territory on the outskirts of Russia under the control of Russia and the folks there will continue to suffer. All this suffering at the behest of a corrupt piano dick playing dictator - is that what the elitist in the "EU" desire? If so - just proves - the EU has made itself worthless. It is toast - twice cooked. The "eu" has no say in this - they are proven worthless elitist lost in 20th century ideology.
Just in case anybody thought I was "making that up about Odessa" - from the Brave ai direct:
~
Odesa Catacombs
The Odessa Catacombs are a vast, labyrinthine network of tunnels located beneath the city of Odessa and its surrounding areas in Ukraine, primarily formed from limestone quarries used for construction since the 19th century.
They are considered one of the largest urban labyrinths in the world, with an estimated length of up to 2,500 kilometers (1,600 miles), stretching over 80 to 100 kilometers along the Black Sea coast.
The system is on multiple levels, reaching depths of up to 60 meters (200 feet) below sea level, and was largely created by mining coquina, a sedimentary rock used to build the city's iconic structures.
The catacombs have served various purposes throughout history. During World War II, they were used as a hiding place and headquarters by Soviet partisans, including the squad led by Vladimir Molodtsov, and were also used as air-raid shelters.
In the Cold War, parts of the tunnels were converted into bomb shelters intended to protect civilians from nuclear strikes or gas attacks.
The area has also been associated with smugglers, outlaws, and even a secret NKVD unit sent to sabotage Romanian forces allied with the Nazis in 1941, whose fate was shrouded in secrecy until recently.
Today, only a small portion of the catacombs is officially accessible to the public, primarily through the "Museum of Partisan Glory" in Nerubaiske, north of Odessa, which commemorates the partisan resistance.
Guided tours are available, but exploration is highly discouraged without a qualified guide due to the complex, uncharted nature of the tunnels and the significant danger of getting lost, which can lead to dehydration or death.
There are over 1,000 known entrances, many of which are on privately-owned land or have been sealed off to prevent access.
The catacombs continue to expand due to ongoing limestone mining in areas like Dofinovka, Byldynka, and "Fomina Balka" near Odesa.
They have also been considered as potential shelters for civilians in the event of conflict, with local volunteers searching for Soviet-era bomb shelters to prepare for potential attacks.
Despite their historical significance and potential for tourism, the city has shown little interest in officially recognizing or funding the exploration and preservation of the catacombs, which remain largely unexplored and shrouded in mystery.
Again, sounds like you are looking for any stick to hit a dog. Putin could push The Button and you'd bitch that he should have pushed it sooner and better and that he sold out to the West by pushing it.
If the Ukrainians retreat to western Ukraine and leave Odessa, Kharkov and Kiev to the Russians. They will have something that us north Europeans wasting away under the American yoke can only dream of at this point.
It should have been a velvet divorce, like the Czech-Slovak split; East Ukraine and West Ukraine; referendum and no death. But no, TPTB wanted war, mass death, graft, and to break the EU-RU economic integration. Nothing more than murder for power and money at a national scale. Do they imagine that Eastern Europe can’t see this for what it is?
"Do they imagine that Eastern Europe can’t see this for what it is?"
They do not. Rather, eastern europeans and especially their rulers know where power, money and status lie and they will do whatever they needs must to do remain aligned with such things.
thats bullshit.
problem here in eastern europe is that in most cases after 89-90 the supression apparatus of the fallen communist regime came to power and consolidated their positions by letting westerners to spoliate the population while getting rich from intermediating this.
there isn't not even one democracy in east europe; nevermind that this is true for the western part, the reasons are different.
You're sort of proving my point. Notice how eastern europeans don't do jack about it, and they chase after western status symbols all the same.
but we do; there is 0 real support for this shit and this is why you don`t see romanian/polish/whatever troops at the front.
i mean there are some psychos, regime puppets and such but by no means real support.
le: i dont mean official troops but 'volunteers' and 'mercenaries'.
You appear to be conflating two separate issues. One is whether eastern europeans crave western status, money and prestige - they do, as you admit.
The other is whether they want to die in Ukraine, when they don't actually like Ukrainians much, anyway.
Anyway, as Goering said, it is the elites and not the people who decide policy. It's not as if polish or romanian units just decide to go join the war.
"We got around to the subject of war again and I said that, contrary to his attitude, I did not think that the common people are very thankful for leaders who bring them war and destruction.
'Why, of course, the people don't want war,' Goering shrugged. "Why would some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best that he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece. Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship.'
'There is one difference,' I pointed out. 'In a democracy the people have some say in the matter through their elected representatives, and in the United States only Congress can declare wars.'
'Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country.'"
thing is goering was a stupid fuck, why don`t you take advice from budanov or other mystic warlord wannabe.
i`m not conflating anything, the reality is that nothing short of forced mobilization could make romanians to fight for ukraine and the 'pro-western' faction is just an oligharchy supported by a tiny but vocal minority of useful idiots.
and this makes all the difference, ukraine main problem is manpower and they won`t get it from here; also they went as far as to annul the elections bc the guy who would have probably won them made it clear that he will end ALL kind of support for ukraine including the logistics corridor.
tl;dr if eastern europeans had really supported ukraine you would have saw a lot of them at the front; instead you see shit bought from americans with money forced from the pockets of an unwilling population which starts to grumble more and more.
It does not matter what Eastern Europe sees. They have no agency in this matter, only to submit to the genocide that is currently underway. The oven doors have been closed and sealed shut. The fires are about to be ignited. Eastern Europe's only protection is the casket they are trapped inside of. Proxy wars are usually like this, willingly complicit acts of suicide.
Finaly someone that have seen the same example from history on how things are done ! Or at least let it in limbo for eternity like Transnistria - but no , some clowns thinked they will outdo Napoleon with the help of other clowns .
Always enjoy your posts, both on X and here.
Q - do you really think AFU KIA are only 150k or so? Dynamics on battlefield & effects in Ukrainian society suggest a total casualty figure of well over 1mn. Wartears has KIA at ~750k, for whatever thats worth
I would have thought KIA closer to 1.5m and injured 1m. Modern weaponry (drones, flame throwers on trenches) is particularly lethat. Russia out fires Ukraine in shells by 10:1 and more in bombs.
But the biggest 2 factors are a) medical - poorly trained men, not very fit trying to save each other and with limited mobility back to hospitals - many WIA will turn quickly into KIA
and b) tactics - if you fight to the end for every village town or city you lose and throw in more reserves you will lose large numbers of men. In contrast Russia, fighting the war properly, have abandoned every town or city within hours, leaving Ukrainians only able to laugh at how they ran (but no victims to show off - Kherson, Izium etc).
What do you know about Ukrainian society? I live in Ukraine. Most of the people don't notice war. If casualties were like you saying people would panic. It's nothing like that. Casualties are way lower on both sides that people would like to imagine
You’re full of shit.
very constructive comment
It is very constructive because it’s true: you’re full of shit.
ты пидарок ебаный. я тоже могу так
А чому нi на мове самостийной?
Или как там это верно говориться-то на вашем суржике.
Нет, ТЫ ебучий педик, лживый кусок собачьего дерьма.
Tell that to Gonzalo Lira.
Ага, и мужики не усираются когда надо лишний раз на улицу выйти по делам.
Вобщем Вася, топим до перемогы, тильки е одын ньюанс.
But you cannot even leave Ukraine.
Interesting. How's life away from the front at the moment?
I think Serge here knows that the Ukr casualties are higher, but wants to avoid being blamed a pro-Russian propagandist. It is a tight rope you have to walk nowadays if you write about anything that is controversial.
New EU law for example allows journalists or basically anyone who writes public articles to be jailed for 'misinformation' , if the information is basically something that the EU dislikes their subjects reading.
There was a group who earlier in 2025 estimated AFU losses via Ukr graveyard expansions and they got the figure 700 000. Don't know if that is accurate or not. Of course how many additional bodies still lie in the ground on the battlefield or mister Z has not bothered to accept in exchange is another question.
New document leak has surfaced yesterday : supposedly multiple hacker groups worked together and hacked Ukrainian general staff network and digital record servers, according to the leak there is 1,72 M Ukr soldiers KIA total. 625 K so far this year alone.
If true, no wonder that the pint-sized cocaine pianist Z is trying everything he can to give fake numbers and euro idiots like Von Lying & co are seemingly in panic.
I saw that. Most Ru media doesnt believe it. 1.7mn kia would mean another 5mn WIA. There would be no AFU. I suspect its total casualties
He is reporting confirmed. Don't know who confirmed the numbers. Certainly didn't come from the UA general staff.
I suspect the KIA and badly wounded for the UA is well over 600,000.
It’s an impossible argument to quantify. I’ve seen estimates all over the place and claims Russian Kia is 3-4x higher etc.
Ukulele can claim anything they want - as the saying goes, the first casualty in war is truth But how could Russia's KIA possibly be 3-4x higher than Ukulele's? It's just not realistically possible, given Russia's overwhelming advantage in firepower, manpower, logistics, medical, support, etc.
I know that’s what I argued. The person in question argued he based it off memorials and never really gave the source. He said Russian Kia is 250k-400k with 1m total casualties and Ukraine was around 120k Kia etc. I mentioned Russian superiority in x amount of fields such as artillery and fabs. But his argument was Ukraine is defensive and has the drone superiority. I argued it’s probably the only field they may be equal but Russia has an advantage etc. Being defensive can also be bad if you’re sitting in a known location that can get fabbed down before a Russian even shows up lol. I don’t think he really thought it through and claimed Ukrainian artillery is better, they have himars, and he gave up that Russians have the fabs advantage after claiming both sides have them which somehow equaled out(dude was dumb). It was a tiresome debate ngl
Western sources frequently quote the fake numbers because they really don't want to admit that Ukraine is close to collapse. Fxxx they don't even want to admit the Ukraine could possibly lose.
Sounds like they were a pro-Ukulele propagandist. Maybe one of those “NAFO” retards. The same type of people who will tell you to not trust your lying eyes and believe a man can become a woman, a woman can become a man, men can give birth, an untested “vaccine” is “safe and effective,” etc. All they do is lie and gaslight, figuring if they lie and gaslight enough, people will start to believe their lies are truth.
Yeah it was strange to me because Russia basically has the advantage in an almost all major relative fields in war. I even used Mediazona as a baseline but I don’t even take their number serious it’s just a middle ground for an idea.
It shouldn't be strange to you. You're trying to make a rational argument against a propagandist. Why bother? Just state the facts and call them out for being a lying propagandist. I add insults, but that's just a personal preference. (They deserve it.)
There are ways of squaring this circle: we’ve all heard about massive desertion rates. But how do we know, really? A guy disappeared, did he go AWOL; or is he pushing up sunflowers somewhere in the field? If desertion rates were as high as claimed, we’d see military police combing cities looking for the scofflaws. All is not well in okraina
The desertion rate is too high to go after all of them. In current Ukrainian law, a first-tome desertion is not a criminal offense, so they just desert and go home.
There's quite widespread half-a-joke that everything bad Ukraine claims for Russia - is actually true for Ukraine (with quite a lot of real life examples). So probably 250-400k kia and 1M casualities is the number for Ukraine, and 3x-4x also real, but for the other side too..
reality is that given the training , the bizarre defend at all costs Ukraine approach, the 10x shelling capacity, the manouvrability and the simple concern for their own troops, that Russian KIA at one tenth of Ukrainian levels is precisely what one would predict.
Idk I’m just a little skeptical that the numbers are that far apart in terms of Russian casualties to Ukrainian casualties. Russian assaults are still getting swarmed with drones. Mines are still present and Ukrainian artillery is still present. I’m comfortable with a 1 to 2 ratio at best. If it’s 4-5 or higher I’d be shocked. Now I could see it being higher if you account for deserters then 3-5 to 1 makes sense.
Remember that the massive meat attacks by Russia are claimed by Ukraine, not substantiated by Russian reports. Ukrainians drones are successful only in killing made up attackers.
More likely it is 4 Russians on motor bikes followed up by 30 or so FABs - huge great bombs with accurate steering which if they hit the right targets kill dozens at a time.
Deserters.
I'm sure plenty want to desert. It isn't that easy though. You could risk goig through the frontline to become a POW, but I would imagine we would have seen Russia bragging of 10s of thousands of POWs if they actually existed. 100s of thousands even.
On the other hand anyone getting leave would surely make a break for a European border (Romania, Poland, Hungary, even Belarus or Russia). And I the first of those 3 countries would surely downplay the numbers.
So AWOL rather than outright desertion.
There are 2 simple back of envlope checks.
Ukraine started with 600k (some say 700k) troops, And while many then wer not trained as front line infantry, all are expected to do that role or drone steering now. They have added surely 2 million, maybe more. They admit to being outnumbered by Russians now and likely only have 3-400k.
Where have that 2-3m gone?
(While it is often claimed that there are 3 WIA to 1 KIA, historical data suggests that 2 out of 3 WIA are back in service within 20 days.)
The second is grave yards, and remember many dead bodies are not recovered. Google Ukrainian cemetaries.
More graves
https://archive.ph/NSpHS
Touniquets and Ukraine medical training
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/terror-and-security/cult-of-tourniquets-causing-unnecessary-amputations-deaths/
Perfect 👍🏻
“…the Alaska meetings are being decried by the Europeans and the Professional Fascism Noticers as a redux of Chamberlain’s Munich Agreement with Hitler, but this does not really matter. In the same sense that, for the alcoholic it is always five o’clock somewhere, for a certain type of person it is always 1938. ”
(I thought "Douglas Murray" as soon as I read that)
"Professional Fascism Noticers"
Priceless..thanks again.
Big Serge -- another outstanding article.
You write beautifully (e.g. your sentence and paragraph structure and word choice and pacing), and your grasp of both the big picture (e.g. military operations and general military science) and technical detail (e.g. tactical innovations in this war and the current territorial adjustments on the ground) are substantial, relevant, and much appreciated.
You avoid the 'sensationalism of events' and unsupportable 'extrapolation' (political and military and cultural) that so often mar commentary on this war. You are not 'over-excited' about 'what is transpiring' militarily or politically and are careful to state what is known (to date), how that might change (in either direction giving recent trends), and what the implications of those events might be for the future of military operations and the overall war effort for both sides.
You are 'balanced' in your coverage (militarily & politically). You caution against unlikely predictions for the immediate future (e.g. an imminent Russian advance to the the Dnieper), while still noting that such things are not entirely out of the realm of possibility (although unlikely) -- thus helping your audience understand the severity and implications of the current Ukrainian operational crisis (and future next steps). You also put this current Ukrainian operational crisis in the context of prior operational contexts in this (and other) wars, further enhancing the 'educational' effect.
Your concise (but accurate) discussion of how 'atttrition' 'eats away' at an army is outstanding and is relevant to many other historical time periods and militaries as well. People with experience in military service (or in other large, complex organizations) can relate and understand what you are describing (although sadly many, with that background, will not), and 'new-be's' without such context will learn about this relevant and important topic from your solid and short, yet insightful, description of this phenomenon.
Embedded in your writing is a continuous 'thread' of historical context (which relates this war to prior wars and this article to your prior articles about war and conflict) which is noteworthy (because it speaks well of your overall body of work and of you intellectual thesis about warfare) and because it makes this article about history and warfare itself (and not just about this week's events in Ukraine).
Clearly I am a fan of your efforts -- but if someone is doing something right, I believe it is 'ok' to 'call them out' on that matter. Thank you for your accurate reporting, sound analysis, and worthwhile commentary.
Martin, let me second your arguments. I come away from each Big Serge contribution with a deep sense of satiety. By that I mean I don’t feel the need to ask one hundred and one follow up questions for the sake of clarity and comprehensiveness. It’s all there: complete, concise, conclusions reached with faultless logic; far superior to the drivel I’ve read in The Economist.
Thank you, Big Serge
Lord, have mercy.
Pray for peace and an end to this death and destruction.
No peace until the Ukrainian threat is neutralized and a Russia-friendly government is installed, with KEEEEEEEV becoming Kiev once again.
Simply excellent commentary.
The fact that Ukraine explicitly refuses to discuss handing over the Donbas a) despite it being primarily a majority pro Russian entity b) despite the obvious disintegration of what is effectively the 3rd Ukrainian army in this war, and c) despite the near drying up of Western military support equipment; suggests Zelensky is under the full control of the EU and the nationalist western Ukrainian cadre of power brokers. He cares nothing for his people. The EU care nothing for his people. The UK has wagered its international prestige on the support of Ukraine despite the obvious domestic problems now soaring out of control.
I am not a military expert. However I have been following this war for 1-2 hours a day for 3 years now. I am in no doubt that NATO expansion US CIA neocons and the pathetic EU leadership WEF cadre are responsible for this dammed war.
I started off neutral in 202 and struggled to understand why Russia would invade Ukraine. I now know why. They had to make the first step before UK sent its massive army into the Donbass. A Ukraine accession to NATO would have been just a matter of time. Given the anti Russian sentiment present in the Ukraine it would have been a clear and present danger to Russia going forward.
I am now 100% behind Russia in the war. Given I was 100% behind NATO through the 2000s, that simply shows I chose to take the red pill......
When Ukraine was neutral from 1992 to 2014, no one was killed or maimed from battle. No infrastructure, nor property was destroyed. Get out of this ruinous security competition and return to peaceful neutrality. May you be bored exquisitely by a return to peaceful neutrality and potential prosperity.
I was very disappointed when Switzerland essentially relinquished the neutrality it had held for many, many decades to effectively join the anti Russian cadre a few years ago.
Of course the United States and its catamites are responsible for this war. This war was entirely intentional on their part.
What does Russia propose to do about it?
The plan ever always only was for the United States to ride to the rescue, europeans being geriatric metrosexual nonces and ponces so effeminate that they make Liberace look like V.G. Zaitsev by comparison.
The europeans are working hard to bring Trump on board.
The Europeans have cultivated and groomed queers and fruitcakes for government positions for many years. The only difference between years past and now is that they pretended to be real men in years past, whereas now they openly act like faggots.
Not to mention europeans have a long tradition of groveling, bowing and scraping before incompetent and/or senile monarchs and getting them to sign off on whatever the courtiers (themselves a bunch of barely closeted queens) wanted.
Europeans don't even die well. Spectacular ski accidents? Flaming Formula One car wrecks? Fifty bike pile ups? Flying speed boats? Drowning in bath tubs filled with rose petals? Sure. But just simple, stepping off the planet deaths? No.
lol, good one, Feral.
Very interesting and similar to just published excellent piece by Dmitry Orlov.
One thing for certain:
US/UK war against Russia will continue…
PS: link at Busty.com
Can you geve link to piece by Dmitry Orlov?
Busty.com
Excellent sit-rep, possibly even better than your long articles.
The "Professional Fascism Noticers" are almost unanimous that there are "no Nazis in Ukraine". They have got cock-eyed vision.
I had no idea of the extent to which the heirs of Stephan Banderas had embedded themselves into Western Ukraine until Scott Ritter enlightened me.
"How many divisions does the Ukrainian Constitution have?"
Not sure about the number of divisions but surely a lot of clausewitz and sub-clausewitzs.
Obviously seems "Russia holds the cards" but there may be things in the background not yet revealed. Seems to me this would BE a fair deal.
1. All the places by virtue of referendum chose to become part of Russia or more closely in Russia's interest - whether they be "free states" of their own accord or officially deemed part of Russia, get the desires of the referendum votes.
2. The whole world acknowledges Crimea chose to be part of Russia and that is de-facto already in place.
3. Odessa, though she beckons steadfastly remains as she is - "alone and lost in confusion" - to be solved in the future one hopes when the catacombs there are more fully explored and then choices for resolution get made after proper consideration.
4. The place once referred to as "the *kraine" is completely emptied of military establishments be they bio-labs, bases, or otherwise - a complete removal of all the nefarious forces and verified strictly and with ruthless justice. A "no-military" zone.
5. A world-wide effort is made to return the fine soil there back to being a bread-basket it was made to be on the steppes - and that is the best use of the place - is it not? IS IT NOT?
~
If not this, then the whole of the place once referred to as "the *kraine will likely become territory on the outskirts of Russia under the control of Russia and the folks there will continue to suffer. All this suffering at the behest of a corrupt piano dick playing dictator - is that what the elitist in the "EU" desire? If so - just proves - the EU has made itself worthless. It is toast - twice cooked. The "eu" has no say in this - they are proven worthless elitist lost in 20th century ideology.
~
Regards,
BK
Just in case anybody thought I was "making that up about Odessa" - from the Brave ai direct:
~
Odesa Catacombs
The Odessa Catacombs are a vast, labyrinthine network of tunnels located beneath the city of Odessa and its surrounding areas in Ukraine, primarily formed from limestone quarries used for construction since the 19th century.
They are considered one of the largest urban labyrinths in the world, with an estimated length of up to 2,500 kilometers (1,600 miles), stretching over 80 to 100 kilometers along the Black Sea coast.
The system is on multiple levels, reaching depths of up to 60 meters (200 feet) below sea level, and was largely created by mining coquina, a sedimentary rock used to build the city's iconic structures.
The catacombs have served various purposes throughout history. During World War II, they were used as a hiding place and headquarters by Soviet partisans, including the squad led by Vladimir Molodtsov, and were also used as air-raid shelters.
In the Cold War, parts of the tunnels were converted into bomb shelters intended to protect civilians from nuclear strikes or gas attacks.
The area has also been associated with smugglers, outlaws, and even a secret NKVD unit sent to sabotage Romanian forces allied with the Nazis in 1941, whose fate was shrouded in secrecy until recently.
Today, only a small portion of the catacombs is officially accessible to the public, primarily through the "Museum of Partisan Glory" in Nerubaiske, north of Odessa, which commemorates the partisan resistance.
Guided tours are available, but exploration is highly discouraged without a qualified guide due to the complex, uncharted nature of the tunnels and the significant danger of getting lost, which can lead to dehydration or death.
There are over 1,000 known entrances, many of which are on privately-owned land or have been sealed off to prevent access.
The catacombs continue to expand due to ongoing limestone mining in areas like Dofinovka, Byldynka, and "Fomina Balka" near Odesa.
They have also been considered as potential shelters for civilians in the event of conflict, with local volunteers searching for Soviet-era bomb shelters to prepare for potential attacks.
Despite their historical significance and potential for tourism, the city has shown little interest in officially recognizing or funding the exploration and preservation of the catacombs, which remain largely unexplored and shrouded in mystery.
~
Regards,
BK
The Austrian State Treaty of 1955 may be a most useful template.
Once again, the Russians have forgotten to bolt the table that the United States (and the West) is about to overturn to the floor.
The time for something mimicking Operation Bagration is hopefully coming.
Putin is an absolute traitor if he settles now.
This is orders of magnitude worse than Minsk-1/2
I thought Russia was losing catastrophically?
Strategically it is.
Sounds like the answer of someone looking for defeat.
Tactically and operationally Russia is winning.
Strategically it is losing because it agrees on this format of the war.
Again, sounds like you are looking for any stick to hit a dog. Putin could push The Button and you'd bitch that he should have pushed it sooner and better and that he sold out to the West by pushing it.
If the Ukrainians retreat to western Ukraine and leave Odessa, Kharkov and Kiev to the Russians. They will have something that us north Europeans wasting away under the American yoke can only dream of at this point.
A nation state of their own.