1. The US/Israeli goal in Iran is to turn Iran into a failed state, much like what was done to Iraq, Libya and Syria. Israel in particular saw its window of opportunity closing and sought to drag the Americans into their war.
I don't know why you think that it is absurd that Israel is using Epstein (or others like him) to get leverage over Trump. Trump hardly acts like a man who has nothing to hide here. Epstein's connections with the Israeli security establishment are pretty hard to ignore, even from the limited and bowdlerized documents that have been made public.
Even Joe Kent alluded to this, when he commented on the subservience of the Administration to Israel. This raises the question - why?
If the United States truly did not want to be dragged into its ostensible client's war, Trump need simply tell the Israelis, loudly and publicly, that if they persist in starting a fight, they are on their own. The United States will not ride to the rescue. Netanyahu can cry, he can throw a tantrum, but what? Trump is no longer up for re-election.
Unless, of course, there is a reason that Trump, Epstein's one-time BFF, cannot do so.
2. More likely than Option 3 - the United States and/or Israel resort to nuclear weapons.
Along those lines, Iran was foolish not to have gotten The Bomb when they could have. The Americans respect only force.
When did air superiority win any US wars? Bribery is more successful than air superiority.
lmao
Also, there was no need of "establishing" air dominance, Iran's air force is obsolete and degraded. "Establishing" air dominance over Iran by Israel and US is no brainer.
That's not the point. Israel lost 1300 men and women on October 7, 2023, and another 800+ in the following war. Compared to that, the couple of drones and missiles from Lebanon and Iran now are two orders of magnitude lower events.
Not to mention, Israel is now low on interceptor missiles. If Iran were as evil and had as much "nuclear material" as claimed, there's nothing stopping them from making a dirty bomb or hitting the Dimona reactor.
Haaretz is located in Israel but it's funded by former German you know what from the Dumont Press. It's worse than Jacobin in the US. You can just as well read Unz Review. Same for Wikipedia.
Nonsense, the US has already lost 30+ airframes and dares not traverse Iranian airspace. The navy has fled and the Iranians are striking targets at will.This will be another catastrophic defeat for the US.
They’re striking from Iraq, they dare not enter closer.
Iran has already destroyed all the air defence systems and radars in the region hence the decrease in their fire rate. They no longer need to saturate AD and can just strike targets at will.
Only retards and neophytes think the US is winning this war, which one are you?
zionist idiots always respond to informative and referenced posts with stupid personal attacks simply because there is no other way to argue against the truth. At the end of 2026 when the west which is almost entirely dependent on food imports will be on the bones of their arses, let's see who still reckons this unprovoked attack on Iran was a great idea.
All of europe and north amerika have switched from once feeding themselves by producing stuff, now only provide 'services' ie delivering pizzas, driving lyft, or aiding the computer systems which order humans to their next job & how much to charge, are about to discover why smart countries still have a substantial agricultural sector. The stupid countries in the west who have imported more people to 'make more money' are about to discover the disadvantages of having too many mouths to feed. Sure the elites will try to profit but that may not be possible for them.
Food harvests will be smaller this year, most nations will do as they did in wars past, that is, reserve sufficient produce for their people before they export for profit. Governments do this not because they want to, but because they have learned over the centuries that not feeding the people means an almost inevitable revolution from the hoi polloi. A few will acquiesce to amerikan demands but most will rationalise that amerika can pound its chest to buggery but since it already has more conflict going down than it can successfully deal with is unlikely to start another despite the certain threats, bribes, blackmail & bullying they make.
Then you wouldn't be here. That's so damn transparent even an utter fool like yourself should be able to comprehend it. Go somewhere else and STFU. You're boring and predictable. Oh look.....68-8 now. You actually got some more likes from the cohort of nitwits joining you in your dumbfuckery.
‘They don’t need to,’ in order for what exactly? I agree the likelihood of nukes being used is rather small. However, the decision to forego the use of nukes won’t be because they are crushing it conventionally. The more likely outcome is quagmire and then deal. This IS a marathon and the US doesn’t have the industry to outlast it.
Iran's capacity to threaten is steadily being whittled away. The US is strangling the regime and if they seize Kharg, that's it for the mullahs. No more cash to pay the basij thugs
Please Don’t parrot propaganda at me, especially since I’ve read somewhere youre about facts and against regime regurgitation.
Yes, Irans capabilities have been reduced , but unless you can give me data that demonstrates it outpaces Irans strategic depth, or its ability to sustain losses, you’re giving me hasty conclusions that read like knee jerks.
My premise is the US cannot whittle away enough because it simply cannot sustain momentum due to the exhaustion of its own offensive and defensive weapons stocks, especially in an era where its hegemony is being challenged in a majority of the world.
The US manufactures ~40 tomahawks per year. And they don’t plan on using them all on Iran unless long term planning is outright abandoned for short term success. They’ll have to rely on GBUs and endless sorties hoping it’s enough to unseat the regime, but history proves it won’t work without ground troops, and/or an established anti-government organization willing to work with the foreign power.
Iran has decades planning for this conflict with asymmetric responses during an attrition stand off. But it also now has economic, material, and ISR backing by Russia and China. In fact I’d argue the latter two have inserted themselves in the kill chain.
Want to actually share your premise, or perhaps a specific claim rather than hide in the shadows while tossing your handkerchief at the bandwagon, lol?
You are delusional and I am glad you are delusional as you are self-destructing real time due to your boundless arrogance. I won't moarn your people when wheel of history turns again, you truly brought it upon yourself, as our ancestors warned us for thousands of years in hundreds of countries.
Mmmm Seems to me the Iranian strike rate is slowly increasing with air defenses now all but gone over Israel.
I understand why you made your comment given the news channel feeds. But I have this "feeling" things are not going well for Israel at all. The Iranian regime know they are dead ducks if they give in and being fundamentalists I suspect they will seek to take down everyone else with them since "Allah is on their side".
Maybe they are striking targets at will but Iran is obviously doing the same. And yes, Israel and the US are very likely to use the nukes. After all: if you are already a terrorist state hellbent on targeting civilians because you cannot fight in pure old-fashioned military way, as Russia does for example - then nuking innocents is a normal thing for you to do. You have never had morals, so notning will stop you now.
‘Russia targets civilians’: 15,000 dead in less than 4 years, in a conflict zone 233,000 square miles. ‘Israel doesnt’: 200,000 dead in less than 3 years, in a conflict zone 200 square miles. My god, the quality of contributors has gone off a cliff on Substack. 😂
Here’s one of my previous responses to you, so don’t go claiming Panchita also blocked you. A quick note: Slander and ad hominem has the effect of motivating me, so feel free to call me a traitor, racist, homophobe, fatphobe. Again, these baseless accusations elicit a comical reaction more than shame. Moving on…
Please Don’t parrot propaganda at me, especially since I’ve read somewhere youre about facts and against regime regurgitation.
Yes, Irans capabilities have been reduced , but unless you can give me data that demonstrates it outpaces Irans strategic depth, or its ability to sustain losses, you’re giving me hasty conclusions that read like knee jerks.
My premise is the US cannot whittle away enough because it simply cannot sustain momentum due to the exhaustion of its own offensive and defensive weapons stocks, especially in an era where its hegemony is being challenged in a majority of the world.
The US manufactures ~40 tomahawks per year. And they don’t plan on using them all on Iran unless long term planning is outright abandoned for short term success. They’ll have to rely on GBUs and endless sorties hoping it’s enough to unseat the regime, but history proves it won’t work without ground troops, and/or an established anti-government organization willing to work with the foreign power.
Iran has decades planning for this conflict with asymmetric responses during an attrition stand off. But it also now has economic, material, and ISR backing by Russia and China. In fact I’d argue the latter two have inserted themselves in the kill chain.
Joe Kent did not say that the administration is subservient to Israel. It's worth rereading what he wrote if that was your take-away. He said that people loyal to Israel are influencing Trump and the administration with bad information.
There's a difference between being under the control or blindly controlled by an outside party, and trusting people who are presenting you information and are loyal to that outside party.
Just because you say “certainly” doesn’t make it true. In fact, it is false. Were you around then? I was. Israel openly opposed the war and lobbied against it. This is in the public record- you can look it up. Israel’s reasons should be obvious. (A minor one, of course, was that they saw Iran as the threat. But the major ones are, as I said, much more obvious.)
I suppose you can brush that off as some sort of cover. Israel-blamers always find explanations deep in the weeds. But that doesn’t make the explanations true.
Obviously there were Jews- US neocons- who favored the war. But there are non-Jewish neocons too. And Israel generally wishes the neocons would shut up. Their ideas are just as dangerous for Israel as they are for the US, if not more so. Amazingly, not all Jews have the same opinion, and that’s especially true between American and Israeli ones.
And I know this may come as a shock to those who think the Jooooooz are behind everything and give no agency to non-Jews, but believe it or not, American gentiles are perfectly capable to doing stupid things on their own, with no nefarious Hebrew influence. Considering how much good they’ve done on their own, I give them that “credit.”
Otherwise, you argue with points I never made. Israel in it current iteration is detestable, granted. But you never will hear me blame all Jews or claim that all Jews are neocons, all neocons are Jews or that Israel represents all Jews.
And I’ll thank you not to use a phrase like “detestable, granted” in reference to my country, “current iteration” or not. Again, just because you say “granted” doesn’t make it true, and it certainly doesn’t mean I agree with you. In fact, Israel is about the opposite of “detestable.”
Well, that settles it, then! Wow, there’s nothing we Jews can’t do…starting every war in history, the Black Death, the death of JFK and Jesus…damn, are we powerful. I guess that explains why I and my family are running to a bomb shelter multiple times a day.
Or maybe most Americans are just tired of 47 years of Iranian turban head bullshit and because they are not China or Russia on a truly strategic scale, enough of all this side show quasi and full blown terror sponsor sideshow. I know this will trigger the America haters big time but in real geopolitics, Russia and China can survive just fine without the mullahs or their oil. The current Iranian regime has just been a convenient condom for the Russians and the Chinese and now it needs to be pulled off. Do you really think the Russian or Chinese civilizations give two shits about the Shias of the world..?
Why exactly do Americans care how Iranians dress? They're half a world away. Iran has very little interaction with Americans and little or no influence on it.
You should just be honest, Sodak; say "I'm tired of Iranian bullshit making noises about not selling their oil in U.S. Dollars". And "I'm an entitled American who believes I can dictate how people half a world away conduct their business".
You'd have to give some idea of what "win" means for me to agree or disagree. That's sort of the problem with the whole exercise. Trump's already declared victory a few times in the past week - so it would be nonsensical for me to agree with you when the opposite is already "facts on the ground".
Does saber rattling really hurt you that much? Should we invade NK for their saber rattling? Will you go fight for these wars you support?
To your accusations about this war, Hell yeah I want the regime to survive. Iran is fighting for the world against bumpkins obsessed with retaining hegemonic power. But you think ideological slander will curtail this fact, lol!? Call me a racist, misogynist, fatphobic, because I’ll call out your obsession with onlyfools, you’re climbing obesity rates, drug abuse, failed marriages, marriage rates, child birth rates, failing education, and the list goes on. This government must be humbled by a lesser power, so that the foundation can be reset and prosperity can return. Let it be disciplined because we discipline those we love (certainly not the so called elites).
Admit it, you’re really upset because they burned a statue of Baal
I could give a fuck what the Shias sell their oil in, make it Zimbabwe dollars if they like. You think the Chicoms don't like being part of the global "move money around the world every 24 hours" game?? So you "see me"...who cares. I don't. You probably couldn't do any real work with your hands if you tried. Come pick some heirloom corn with me bare handed and then you can "see me".
Everywhere you go in the US is a shit show. Infrastructure looks like it fell out the dogs arse. Why not just stay home and fix your own stuff? You'd be happier. We'd be happier. What's not to like?
if you are tired of 47 years of Iranian turban head bullshit leave the f.. them alone. Let them deal themselves with their turbans or their alleged bullshit. Nothing of it is you f...g business
I don't know for China but Russia reached diplomatic agreements with Iran which lasts for about 200 years. Except for brief period of WW2 when USSR and Great Brittain have to occupy Iran. For Russia it's just a neighbour which is not friendly but not hostile too. Of course 2 neigbouring states always interact with each other. But Russia and Iran not much. Even if Russia has some constructive initiative it's hard to get the support from Iran and both contries have very few common projects. Russia simply has not much to protect in Iran. Yes Russia can support Iran because in this situation having Iran is better than not having and it's good for Russia if USA will be busy for some time. Normal geoplitics if your adversary participate in a war help his enemy. Nothing personal just business.
But when Russia suggested to build Iranian air defense Iran decided to buy the components from the different countries which hard to integrate with each other. How Russian SAMs work the whole word knows. How Chinese SAMs work? Nobody knows. Now Iran has air defense problems. Muammar Gaddafi acted the same way showing Russia his middle finger. Before him Broz Tito did that too. But somehow it always turns out that these who showed Russia middle fingers are bombed by Western countries.
100% correct Feral. I just added the nuclear option as "Option 4"myself in a comment..
I find it "almost" incredible that our so called "Free Press" are not
1. Raising the argument that Israel is driving US policy
2. Not questioning the vast amount of money spent on THAAD and Patriot systems that OBVIOUSLY DO NOT WORK
3. Asking why 2 "real estate" based Jewish friends of Trump constituted the US Negotiations team. My comment is NOT antisemitic but simply factual as to how their skills and cultural background could possibly be considered suitable international political/military based negotiations experts!
Much as I dislike the Iranian theocracy I remain astounded at the seemingly lack of understanding by Israel and the US that this would not go as they "planned."
We are all go to pay for this historical mistake........ and unless Trump continues to fool most of the people most of the time; the November mid terms are going to send a clear message.
Simple - the US and Israel never intended to negotiate, as there is no negotiated agreement that would turn Iran into a failed state as demanded by Israel.
The real story is of course Iran would seek a nuclear weapon. The regime would be stupid not to. Look at Pakistan - nukes and despite their support of Islamic terrorism, no US bombing or attacks. If Trump or the US were serious about the threats of Islamic terror to the U.S., Saudi Arabia wouldn't be an ally and Pakistan would have been bombed to smithereens years ago.
Your factually unsupported notion that Epstein exerted control over Trump, and therefore Israel is dictating war policy, is a salacious legacy media myth trotted out by Trump haters. This is the same crowd that for the past 10 years have raised their voices repeatedly claiming “We’ve got him now!” -without results.
The author’s theories stand up to scrutiny far better.
Perhaps US angle was to attack Iran not because of the nuclear threat, but to provoke it in order to punish the GCC countries - for slowly abandoning the petrodollar system, over the last few years. Any oil producing country attempting to break away from petrodollar was brutally punished. Iraq. Libya. The nuance with GCC countries is that these are US allies on paper, whose interests are to be protected by US military assets. How to punish them then? An outcome of this war is a destruction of their economic output and projected security image. The deal was petrodollar oil for security and US detterence. Not working out, currently. As Big Serge mentioned - sequence of things matter. First, the US secured access to vast Venezuelan oil resources, which are now to be exploited by US oil and gas sector. Next, Iran was attacked provoking an obvious response. Cheers.
Access to vast Venezuelan reserves may be true but it needs a great amount of development - so again real estate with future potential if any oil companies are willing to risk their investment to develop it. #
Nothing forthcoming soon- pipe dream see DJT - but enough vain glory to make him willing to take on Iran for Bibi.
GCC abandonment and destruction probably will end the petro dollar agreements - talk about collateral damage for the US.
US and GCC both took big hits- can’t believe the Secretary of War did not game plan this potential response by Iran to US infrastructure and the punishment meted out to the oil emirates. Didn’t help that US took oil countries munitions for Israel.
WSJ hates tariffs - they are adherents of the petrodollar. Anyway, if you follow the industrial vital signs in Europe, they are plunging. While in the US employment has been inching up when at the same time more than 2 Mio illegals self-deported.
There are few unbiased messengers. Like I asked you what you thought about BBC and their Ukraine war reporting. With almost any newspaper or news medium - it's propaganda first. Journalists are combatants. Like lawyers in a court.
I agree. And dismissing "red heifers" is to dismiss the very real and strong Jewish Messianic motivation to build the third temple on the ruins of al Aqsa.
No need for Epstein, both Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are Israeli assets and Trump has a long history doing whatever Jared wants. Trump has said he thinks Jared is the smartest person in the world. Jared has been shaking down the sheiks lately and, with all that insider information, is likely making a fortune on the swings in the oil matker.
Ok. What was the Israel lobby's power before Epstein? How is it different now than before? What political faction with any power in America ever, ever said ....just let Israel get conquered, destroyed and knocked out of existence and do absolutely nothing to stop its enemies from taking over the Middle East? When has Israel not used that American commitment to its own advantage?
I'm not asking what you think should happen with Israel. I am talking about the political reality of the last fifty years of American foreign policy.
So this is pretty good, and I mean not to quibble, but I think most people are operating with limited information when it comes to the missile launches.
For one thing, Iran is huge and mountainous, so it was never possible with the assets available to cover Iran sufficiently to seriously degrade the TELs. Hundreds of fighters even with isr are not going to be able to meaningfully attrit the amount of launchers claimed, especially in the mountains as the geographic area is just too enormous.
It must also be noted that a TEL is not super complicated to build, and no doubt Iran probably has closer to thousands than hundreds.
There are also numerous videos now showing many launches being carried out from random spots on the ground where the missile is covered only by a small amount of soil. How many of these are there? No way to tell.
Finally, the eastern missile bases and the eastern region has hardly launched anything. Mostly it is the western and central commanders firing off mrbms. Of the active ones Israel has constantly claimed to take them out, only for launches to resume later.
Israel and the united states do not, and did not have the ability to degrade the strike systems of Iran, and basically have not made any more a meaningful dent in the Iranian strike capacity than they did in the 12 day war.
Now why was there a large spread of strikes during the first two days that quickly fell off? Well as everyone is well aware, Iran's isr is heavily dependent on China and to a lesser extent Russia. The initial wave caused everyone to turn on their radars and reveal nearly all interception and detection systems, which usually do not move around much.
Since then, Iran has consistently launched strikes at everything that lit up during those days, and has had spectacular success. The Israelis are viciously lying and censoring everything, but even then the truth eventually comes out and all these open areas missiles are falling into coincidentally had important assets there.
The Iranians are also waging psychological warfare- the north of Israel is being evacuated, and there has hardly been an hour without the sounds of sirens and explosions everywhere in Israel.
Our force posture also suggests that we have done little of what Pete has claimed: Iran still has air defense that keeps overflights from happening - nearly all videos and pictures from the US show bombers armed with jassms because Iran still had numerous radar, including oth, that function and numerous ad batteries.
The naval forces which have been blown up 10x already have clearly had enough success to force our csgs away from the coast.
So Iran is in firm control of where the war ends, with the epstein axis committed to loud, showy spectacle that is instead turning into a slow moving slog, where the end result can only be what Iran wants, even if their visible and charismatic command structure is constantly being threatened.
And remember, Iran has hardly launched any cruise missiles or drones in proportion to their speculated inventories, and Iran's missile stockpile, if estimates are to be believed are still enormous.
(EDIT: finally got back to a desktop to fix some spelling mistakes.)
"Iran still has air defense that keeps overflights from happening - nearly all videos and pictures from the US show bombers armed with jassms because Iran still had numerous radar, including oth, that function and numerous ad batteries."
FPRI claims that the US used >500 JDAMs and 160 SDBs in the first 96 hours of the conflict. Although these do have ranges of tens of kilometers when fired from high altitudes, this shows that the US/IDF air forces clearly believed that they had minimal long-range AA threats against them
Many thanks, you raise good points. I am quite disappointed by Serge’s analysis, tbh. IMO 90% of the talk about the TELs is pure USraeli propaganda. You can see in the picture provided in the piece that the TEL is based on a commercial truck trailer, including the canvas cover to conceal it. A Chinese dump trailer that already includes the hydraulics you need to raise an icbm costs less than 10.000$ , that’s literally a 20 second google search. You can build the rest of the electronics and extra hydraulic pump in a modular way and bolt it in place afterwards, and that’s it. No fockin rocket science. Hell, I’m pretty sure the Iranians have been outsourcing these to China and have been receiving them via railway by the hundreds…
Also, almost no discussion about the logistics and depletion of stocks of critical US munitions like AD interceptors and long range attack missiles. Poor. Very poor analysis indeed.
Iran can keep valuable air defense only in importal regions. The losses of civilians in unprotected regions are not pleasant but it's something that 90 mln Iran can tolerate for keeping it's missile production and launching ability. As I know American planes keep away from dangers zones using long range missiles. And Ukrainian example shows that bombing everything out in big country is very hard. 1000 or even 10000 cruise missiles are not enough. Of course Ukraine inherited a lot of reserves from USSR but Iran even bigger. I doubt that USA has so many bombs.
"Shahed"-like drones can be stocked by tens of thousands. And Russia can give more.
Iran can keep valuable air defense only in importal regions. The losses of civilians in unprotected regions are not pleasant but it's something that 90 mln Iran can tolerate for keeping it's missile production and launching ability. As I know American planes keep away from dangers zones using long range missiles. And Ukrainian example shows that bombing everything out in big country is very hard. 1000 or even 10000 cruise missiles are not enough. Of course Ukraine inherited a lot of reserves from USSR but Iran even bigger. I doubt that USA has so many bombs.
"Shahed"-like drones can be stocked by tens of thousands. And Russia can give more.
I don’t know where you get the idea that Iran’s capabilities are significantly degraded. You really have no idea how many missiles and drones they have or what the can continue to produce or replenish, especially vis-à-vis the depleting rate of US assets and AD in the gulf and in Isreal. You keep talking about launchers as if they can’t reproduce launchers or be resupplied in any form. More importantly, Iran has vast number of missiles and drones produced in underground factories that continue operating by all accounts. Some of these missile factories and storage depots are deeply buried and fortified with silos for launching that don’t even need ground based launchers.
On the other hand, US has lost a tremendous or obscene percentage of its military bases and ground based logistics, including its vaunted radars for early warning and missile defense. I think the sheer military damage to Iran is dwarfed by the strategic and material (trillions counting the bases just in Qatar and Bahrain) losses of the US in just two weeks.
Israel is already being decimated, and only a fool would think it would take much to pulverize it into Stone Age by targeting what’s left of its infrastructure and industry given it’s a shitty little totally dependent colony in the midst of a multi front war going into its third year. On the other hand, Iran’s allies are well activated and thriving though they were deemed significantly depleted too just six months ago. Isreal is now forced to fight on the northern front against a revamped or reawakened Hezbollah and US forces are being expelled from Iraq, Syria, Jordan, the vassal gulf states, after decades of expanded stationing and occupation.
I mostly agree with your general conclusions, but citing the above in addition to the real nuclear option of economic squeeze that Iran has inflicted and appears fully capable of continuing without the US being able to do shit about it before the shit they’re receiving literally hits the global energy and financial markets fan. I think you spent a great amount of time and thought writing this long piece, yet with some glaring omissions in tactical and military analysis!
My friend, you'd better start looking for a safe haven because you're practically begging for a pogrom, which I have a feeling will happen in the US. Their population is already eagerly searching for a scapegoat and they're looking to the jews.
Yeah nice to buy their way into any club! Does that include Epstein too? 🤣🤣🤣. He was a genius! Are you a pedophile also or just a delusional psychopath like most Zio scum?
That's not exactly the case. UN peace keepers reported US flying in ground troops in clandestine flights from 1992 to 1997. That is documented in Canadian National Achive in documents declassified in Dec 2023. No US troops were put on the ground but 1,000s of Muslim troops flown in, largely from Afghanistan were in the ground. The US also used proxies from former Yugoslavian countries. Additionally, the UK and US both positioned troops there. Thd US has a base in Kosovo. Serbia ultimately capitulated because the issue of ground forces was decided for them by Russia and the US. It was not the air campaign by itself that brought about the collapse of Yugoslavia, but various proxy ground forces on the ground combined with a lack of support from Russia or its own constant parts.
We are not talking about a few special forces. We are talking about a CIA funded Army coordinated through several US NGOs and the State Department numbering in the 1,000s over 10,000 troops altogether. The proxies, paid for by the US numbered in the 10s of thousands as well. That is a far cry above a few special forces. Isolation from Russia support and a permanent US base with US snd UK engaged in combat operations played a big factor as well. And the US flew in non-combatants as well to shift demographics particularly in Kodovo. The air campaign did not bring Yugoslavia to its knees.
The US funded KLA alone numbered over 25,000 - 30,000 by 1998. When other proxies are added US backed ground forces exceeded 40,000 troops. Their actions on the ground were essential to US victory / Yugoslavia defeat. Later action involved direct involvement of regular US troops.
Serbia was a small country, surrounded by hostile / NATO countries, without any logistic lifelines to friendly countries. OTC, short logistics for the attacker. Serbia was under siege with no relief option.
Nope. In fact after 78 days NATO pulled the plug on airstrikes because the attrition rate was so high. They lost a ton of planes. And then the Serbs rolled out all their armor which had been hidden in bunkers and caves.
During that time more civilians were murdered than military personnel.
Complete bullshit. Japan surrendered after the Soviet Union entered the war and defeated them in Manchuria and Sakhalin. You are completely brainwashed.
History books lie - winners write the history - Truman went nuclear cause he had a lethal new toy- not a truly upstanding man - being the ‘first’ was very seductive- see Hiroshima Revisited- nuclear blast may not have been nuclear at all. Lies our leaders told us - endless- just listen to Trump - continual lies and obfuscations but people so needy for a ‘leader’ they take him at his ever changing words.
"people so needy for a ‘leader’ they take him at his ever changing words." That numbers is declining every day. Before long it will be only the true cultists & zios.
Japan till the end hoped that USSR will be an umpire in the negitation. They didn't know of Soviet-American agreement that USSR will attack Japan no later than in 3 months after the end of the European war.
Three months. Just enough time to move his armies from combat on the Russian western front so as to set up against the Japanese on Russia's eastern front.
Japan surrendered because the USN destroyed their shipping assets, starving and strangling their empire of resources from the Pacific, then the Russians rolled up the majority of their Asian posessions in a few weeks, also cutting off the home islands resources from Asia.
They had too few indigenous natural resources to continue their fight, were running out of men, ships and aircraft & knew that continuing resistance to the point of facing an island invasion from combined USA + USSR with no resources to counter that would not be beneficial.
The Japanese had been trying to surrender for several weeks BEFORE the nuclear bombings, in the end they were more realistic than the German power structure.
Everything you said about shipping and strangulating natural resources is true.
I wasn’t trying to say that it was only literally airplanes that defeated Japan, but to point out that victory without boots on the ground is very possible.
Can the US, through airstrikes, sanctions and blockades bring Iran to the point of surrender? (without putting boots on the ground?)
"Can the US, through airstrikes, sanctions and blockades bring Iran to the point of surrender?"
----------
Consider that the surrender of Iran is likely not the actual ultimate objective of our oligarchy, nor is "surrender" necessary to achieve their actual goals?
You have likely noticed by now that the sequential and contradictory plethora of excuses for starting this phase of WWIII bloviated about by Trump et alia for the last 3 weeks are illogical, nonsensical and have little relation to what is happening (and was predicted to happen by any competent analysts before their attack on Iran was begun).
The degradation of Iran's infrastructure and severe infrastructure damage to ALL petro states across the whole region + Israel itself clearly WERE desired (or at least reasonably agreeable) effects brought on by the USA's attack.
The inevitable degradation and damages to all societies world wide which were dependant on those petro states energy resources and fertilizer production was easily foreseen and is not the great surprise some now pretend to find it.
The USA will still have oil, natural gas and enough food to prevent mass starvation, as will much (but not all!) of the Western Hemisphere. So does the Russian Federation. And everywhere else will be more or less damaged, degraded or outright destroyed... How will "multipolarism" be working out, how much of BRICS will still be thinking they can do whatever they like for trade and currencies? Who is going to park their investments in tiny Gulf kingdoms? Will they want to put their cash into Euro funds or US T bills?
All true except for one thing. You talk about surrender like there is only one form of surrender. The Japanese wanted to negotiate a surrender. They believed with a desperately loyal population and close to a million man army still intact, they could negotiate some kind of deal with the Americans.
When the Soviets not only wiped out the last of their army and threatened to invade a relatively undefended part of their homeland, they decided to take whatever deal America was willing to give them. That surrender is what was signed on the American battle ship in Tokyo bay. Not the deal they thought they could get while they still had the Manchurian army intact which was ready to reach Japan in a short period.
And elements of the German leadership were trying to surrender. But again they wanted to negotiate a deal not an unconditional surrender.
I'm gonna go with "an overtly nefarious parasite which manipulates the American government through a mixture of campaign contributions, religious trickery, and blackmail." And "psychopathic heinous morally depraved butchers."
How many books have you read on the subject? I've read close to 100, many by Jews, including Israelis. Saying that a state that ignores international law and the Geneva Conventions is "just acting like a state" is hardly an argument. The US and Israel are rogue, repellent, fascistic states led by psychopaths and sociopaths. This fact has been pointed out by numerous psychiatrists and psychologists, a number of them Jews, including Israelis who have rejected Zionism in disgust..
This is good but where would ground forces stage for even a limited invasion? Where would they resupply while under fire? Russia and Ukraine (supported by Europe) are fighting in their backyard, America is far from home.
The U.S. doesn't have to send its troops. They can try to provoke the Iraqi Kurds or Azerbaijan into a war with Iran. In fact, this is their main policy of waging war - finding useful idiots to do their dirty work.
They actually tried that already. It didn't work just recently. I suppose they could try again. Except it is the Kurds that would provide the muscle in that situation. Turkey would not like that process at all. Neither would Russia. Both of them are heavy hitters in the area and can make life pretty miserable for anybody especially if they had hands off cooperation with each other.
The cause for the war is that Netanyahu has wanted it forever, and with Trump on the ropes politically, this was his chance. This war is not in any way good for the US power position, nor for Trump's power position within the US political system, nor for the Republican party. Whether Israel benefits is an open question as of now. Israel had a blank check to bomb every one of its neighbors with impunity (with Egypt and Jordan long ago captured by friendly dictatorship/monarchy). Iran was not Israel's neighbor, it does not even share a land border with any of Israel's neighbors. Prior to the war, Iran was willing to de-nuclearize even more comprehensively than JCPOA. Netanyahu is very simply psycopathic and evil in a very classic sense. These things do exist in history. States are, at important moments in history, not value neutral. You can't "both-sides" this one, sorry. Doing so discredits your other work to date.
"I tend to approach these matters very differently, beginning with my assumption that Israel, the United States, and Iran are all mostly normal states that are predominantly interested in security and power-maximization." You almost lost me there. Only your other excellent articles kept me reading. Israel is nowhere close to a normal state. It is the only existing apartheid state in the world. It puts over 2 million people in an open air concentration camp. It proceeded to regularly bomb them as it also regular bombs Lebanon which it has invaded twice. What other normal state regularly bombs its neighbors? It has attacked its surroundings another 2 times in aggressive wars. It is committing genocide in GAZA and ethnic cleansing in the West Bank. It might even assassinate more people than the United States all around the world. It believes its Jewish inhabitants are God's chosen people and Palestinians are animals. This nowhere near normal.
Your misunderstanding stems from your very different working definition of "normal state". You mean something along the lines of "moral and honorable". Serge means "well organized, purposeful and functional". Was WW2 Japan a normal state? To Serge's point of view, yes. It was, of course, evil; but an organized, well-functioning state.
Most humans are hard wired not to kill each other. A major part of US Army basic training is to overcome this inhibition. Believing that sodomizing and torturing prisoners is ok is not a normal human attitude. Thankfully Believing that killing pregnant women is 2 for one is not a normal human attitude Thankfully Believing that genocide is religiously sanctioned is not a normal attitude. Thankfully. These beliefs are by definition abnormal. A state guided by abnormal beliefs of the rest of humanity is not a normal state. The US is not a normal state as it believes it is an exceptional state that has hegemony over the world. Can bomb and sanction a country such that 5oo.oo children excess deaths occur and believe that action is worthy is not an normal state. Japan from 1925 to 1945 was not a normal state but militaristic totalitarian state. War is not a normal state, Thankfully.
From at least the classical antiquity, the most fundamental goal of education was to instill in learners an ability to engage in objective disputation; the importance of agreed-upon definitions, of understanding the opponent's point before responding to it, the logic apparatus of argument and refutation, the recognition of common fallacies, the works.
Nowadays all that is lost; ostensibly educated people think that argumentation consists of tossing emotional statements past each other, while assuming that the disputant is doing likewise, and thus attempting to understand his points is a waste of time. As a result it is no longer possible to engage productively. I believe this failure of the education system is intentionally engineered, and a major faultline in what we still regard as civilization.
I would agree that Israel is a state with a government that functions. I disagree that it is a normal state. You imply that I was just tossing emotional statements at Big Serge. I was saying that I disagreed with his basic assumption that Israel is a normal state. Until the latest stages a rabid dog is a functioning dog. Would you not agree that how the Israeli government interacts with the surrounding peoples could be considered psychopathic. Israel will not be satisfied unless Iran is turned into a dysfunctional state such as Libya has become. The Trump administration seems to be caught in its own fantasies. Meanwhile the world economy is being damaged by the inability of the US to open the Hormuz strait to normal traffic. The Houthis have not activated the closing of Bab el Mandeb which the US Navy was unable to open when they closed it previously. The ability of Iran to close the strait seems not to have been dealt with in any of the US planning. People are already wondering whether the Israelis are going to use nukes on Iran or the US might. Is using nukes the actions of a normal state?
I concede that Serge's use of the term "normal" was perhaps unfortunate; what he meant would be more adequately expressed by "proper" as in, Israel is a proper state. "Normal" carries the implied connotation of psychological normalcy, which, as you observe, is definitely not the case here.
You assert, in effect, that Iran has shot its bolt and imply that it cannot continue a long war. Do you know this to be true? Are they, as you infer, out of bullets? Is it not possible that the other side is running short of attack capacity and as well as its means of defense? Will Russia and China sit by and watch Iran smashed as a nation? The idea of The Empire committing navy to Hormuz or marines to a land attack is simply absurd. How is Tel Aviv holding up? For the first time with you, I question the validity of your premises.
Perhaps I did you an injustice. My own best sources believe that Iran now has a significant advantage in missiles with most of its hypersonics not destroyed or used, whereas many big American detection and tracking arrays have been put out of commission. They could be wrong in their assessment.
I felt the implication of your article was that, though Iran said it intended to continue, it had been too hurt, and didn't have the chops to do so.
I strongly doubt that Iran has the resources left to drive America out of the middle east. The point is that while Iran can perhaps continue for longer than the Americans are willing and able to do so for whatever reason, they will be unable to get an unconditional surrender from America.
Iran has no need of American surrender. It will suffice to break The Empire's absolute hold and deny it victory. Empire's usually fall through bankruptcy and attrition, not battle. Israel needs to be ruined and destroyer as a nation, as well, and it will be.
The thrust of your arguments are essentially in favour of the US-Israeli combine with a reluctant concession to the victim country and opposition,Iran.Essentially to balance the scales and look open-ended as also to shield yourself from a possible upending of the principal premises - Israel-American combine have mostly achieved its war aims of sufficiently though not permanently crippling the enemy.
Bullets aren't the same as IRBMs. You must not be seeing the Iranian drones getting wasted by various forms of CAP, including attack helicopters. Doesn't take very many 30 mike mike rounds to waste a thin skinned drone. Better luck next time!
Uhhh....some of those drones carry anti-air missiles specifically designed to deal with helicopters that come within thirty millimeter range. No helicopter pilot is going to come within thirty millimeter range of a swarm of a dozen attacking drones, some of which have greater speed and maneuverability than he does.
Wow, you speak with such authority for all combat helicopter pilots. Must be some good AI generated video on X of drones constantly shooting down helicopter gunships. By the way, have you ever flown an AH-64 Apache..?
The problem that there can be hundreds of drones in the swarm and unlike cruise missiles they can be produced in tens of thousands. You can down 50% or even 75% of the drones but remaining will hit the targents. Huge air defence network is required but only Russia has it. And shoots down 97% of the targets.
Ukrainian helicopter intercepted Russian drones now Russian drones can be armed with air-to-air missiles. And shooting from very close distance can be dangerous if the drone detonates.
At the end of this war, all US military assets in the Gulf Arab satrapies will be razed to ashes and Israel cut down to size. US hegemony in the Middle East has no chance of returning to status quo ante.
Trump miscalculated and will likely be impeached and convicted after the midterms. Wars have never been won without boots on the ground. My biggest fear, other than thermonuclear, is a false flag operation in the US.
He can’t be stupid. He deserves it and he surely knows he will lose the midterms. He’s also uniquely prideful. This, to me, suggests he plans a coup, or false flag to justify suspending the usual election cycle (à la his favorite Ukrainian dictator.) If not before the midterms then surely before he leaves office, when he has to know he’ll be tried and sentenced to spend the rest of his life behind bars. His political enemies hate him that fervently.
That's exactly what they'll do. He took some money out of the cookie jar, oh how disgraceful for the honor of the presidency. Dems won't go anywhere near the rape, child abuse, war crimes, or foreign influence, all of which also implicate their own leaders. Probably will be too cowardly to touch the quickly maturing fascist structures in DHS too, just like Obama didn't do squat about the Patriot act which was the foundation for it.
Trump just sacrificed his position out of obedience to the Cabal. He will not be effectively prosecuted. He will get a golden parachute in one form or another.
No deterrence after the summer war? Are you sure? No allies or proxies' capacities? Are you sure? How come Herzbollah has so many rockets? (even without Syria). And the Houthis (not entering yet)? And the Iraqi militias? (Bagdad is very kino at the moment). I think your premisses are the same as Israeli's at the beginning - and they proved wrong. And yes, speaking of Gaza in terms of military victory is quite rich (and also military wrong, by the way). I bet it will be nº 1 (with war compensations, whatever the form)
"the Trump Administration has been unusually bad about communicating either motives or explicit aims for the conflict"
UNUSUALLY bad? Surely you meant "bad as usual"! Trump's administration changed the motives behind the attack on Venezuela multiple times both before and after it, not to mention his kabuki theatre on Russia...
Quds Commander Esmail Qaani has not been killed, as far as I know. Actually, there are even unconfirmed rumours that he could be a Mossad assets, since he allegedly survived multiple Israeli attacks.
"The horizontal escalation to include Arab countries hosting American assets"
I'd rather say "to include American assets in Arab countries".
You repeat multiple times that USrael has "clear air superiority", but has it really? How many aircraft has USrael lost? Quite a few already: 3 F-15 or F-16, I do not remember from top of my head, over Bahrain in just a few hours on one of the first days of the war + 2 Stratotankers over Iraq more recently, not to mention reports of other fighter jets being downed over Iran. As far as I know, most of the attacks on Iran have been with standoff weapons such as the Tomahawk.
Finally, you provided quite a limited explanation on why this war. I understand that a deeper one would require an article on itself, however the one provided is too shallow and should consider at least broader geopolitical objectives (and, whether you like it or not, some messianic view in (Christian) Zionism). For the interested reader, I would recommend these 2 articles:
I will have another one coming soon offering a new perspective.
P.S.: No mention of the other factions of the Axis of Resistance (Hezbollah in Lebanon and others in Iraq) battering USrael and its allies (e.g. France and Italy, the latter of which left Iraq)?
1. You fail to understand the distinction between "air superiority" and "air supremacy", even though Serge went to the trouble of providing accepted definitions of both.
2. Serge presents a convincing argument that mundane considerations provide sufficient incentive for this war, without the need to invoke the occult. This is not to say there are no racist or psycho motivations; but by Occam's razor, they are redundant.
1. The US/Israeli goal in Iran is to turn Iran into a failed state, much like what was done to Iraq, Libya and Syria. Israel in particular saw its window of opportunity closing and sought to drag the Americans into their war.
I don't know why you think that it is absurd that Israel is using Epstein (or others like him) to get leverage over Trump. Trump hardly acts like a man who has nothing to hide here. Epstein's connections with the Israeli security establishment are pretty hard to ignore, even from the limited and bowdlerized documents that have been made public.
Even Joe Kent alluded to this, when he commented on the subservience of the Administration to Israel. This raises the question - why?
If the United States truly did not want to be dragged into its ostensible client's war, Trump need simply tell the Israelis, loudly and publicly, that if they persist in starting a fight, they are on their own. The United States will not ride to the rescue. Netanyahu can cry, he can throw a tantrum, but what? Trump is no longer up for re-election.
Unless, of course, there is a reason that Trump, Epstein's one-time BFF, cannot do so.
2. More likely than Option 3 - the United States and/or Israel resort to nuclear weapons.
Along those lines, Iran was foolish not to have gotten The Bomb when they could have. The Americans respect only force.
Neither Israel or America will ever nuke Iran. They don't need to.
They've already established air dominance and are striking targets at will.
The desperation in your post is palpable
And yet missiles hit Israel and the Gulfie tyrannies, the Straits remain closed.
And? Does that mean nukes will be used or that air superiority is at-risk?
Or did you just have to say something lol
No, it means that the aggressors have not won, in spite of repeatedly claiming victory.
So you're making a point that no one was arguing lol good one
I dunno, you seem to have been claiming victory.
When did air superiority win any US wars? Bribery is more successful than air superiority.
lmao
Also, there was no need of "establishing" air dominance, Iran's air force is obsolete and degraded. "Establishing" air dominance over Iran by Israel and US is no brainer.
That's not the point. Israel lost 1300 men and women on October 7, 2023, and another 800+ in the following war. Compared to that, the couple of drones and missiles from Lebanon and Iran now are two orders of magnitude lower events.
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-07-07/ty-article-magazine/.premium/idf-ordered-hannibal-directive-on-october-7-to-prevent-hamas-taking-soldiers-captive/00000190-89a2-d776-a3b1-fdbe45520000
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hannibal_Directive
Not to mention, Israel is now low on interceptor missiles. If Iran were as evil and had as much "nuclear material" as claimed, there's nothing stopping them from making a dirty bomb or hitting the Dimona reactor.
Haaretz is located in Israel but it's funded by former German you know what from the Dumont Press. It's worse than Jacobin in the US. You can just as well read Unz Review. Same for Wikipedia.
You are reduced to shooting the messenger.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-07/israel-hannibal-directive-kidnap-hamas-gaza-hostages-idf/104224430
Nonsense, the US has already lost 30+ airframes and dares not traverse Iranian airspace. The navy has fled and the Iranians are striking targets at will.This will be another catastrophic defeat for the US.
Heavy non-stealth American bombers have struck Iranian military sites multiple times. At what point do you stop pretending Iran is winning? 🤣
Iran's strike capability has decreased 400% since day 1 lol
Keep huffing that copium
They’re striking from Iraq, they dare not enter closer.
Iran has already destroyed all the air defence systems and radars in the region hence the decrease in their fire rate. They no longer need to saturate AD and can just strike targets at will.
Only retards and neophytes think the US is winning this war, which one are you?
Huff that copium retard 🤣 Iran is exposed and being bombed daily
zionist idiots always respond to informative and referenced posts with stupid personal attacks simply because there is no other way to argue against the truth. At the end of 2026 when the west which is almost entirely dependent on food imports will be on the bones of their arses, let's see who still reckons this unprovoked attack on Iran was a great idea.
All of europe and north amerika have switched from once feeding themselves by producing stuff, now only provide 'services' ie delivering pizzas, driving lyft, or aiding the computer systems which order humans to their next job & how much to charge, are about to discover why smart countries still have a substantial agricultural sector. The stupid countries in the west who have imported more people to 'make more money' are about to discover the disadvantages of having too many mouths to feed. Sure the elites will try to profit but that may not be possible for them.
Food harvests will be smaller this year, most nations will do as they did in wars past, that is, reserve sufficient produce for their people before they export for profit. Governments do this not because they want to, but because they have learned over the centuries that not feeding the people means an almost inevitable revolution from the hoi polloi. A few will acquiesce to amerikan demands but most will rationalise that amerika can pound its chest to buggery but since it already has more conflict going down than it can successfully deal with is unlikely to start another despite the certain threats, bribes, blackmail & bullying they make.
Hardly, the Iranians just shot down two F35s.
This is a disaster for the US.
55 likes to 4. A bit embarrassing, eh? Nitwit.
I'm not really the type to be embarrassed about not having fake interent points.
More concerned with how to finish the job in Iran
Then you wouldn't be here. That's so damn transparent even an utter fool like yourself should be able to comprehend it. Go somewhere else and STFU. You're boring and predictable. Oh look.....68-8 now. You actually got some more likes from the cohort of nitwits joining you in your dumbfuckery.
I'm here to learn and throw shade, not count internet karma Iol
Keep crying over jihadi corpses
Not crying here. Just watching you twist on my hook. Nitwit.
😂 How did that work out for you! 😂
‘They don’t need to,’ in order for what exactly? I agree the likelihood of nukes being used is rather small. However, the decision to forego the use of nukes won’t be because they are crushing it conventionally. The more likely outcome is quagmire and then deal. This IS a marathon and the US doesn’t have the industry to outlast it.
Iran's capacity to threaten is steadily being whittled away. The US is strangling the regime and if they seize Kharg, that's it for the mullahs. No more cash to pay the basij thugs
Please Don’t parrot propaganda at me, especially since I’ve read somewhere youre about facts and against regime regurgitation.
Yes, Irans capabilities have been reduced , but unless you can give me data that demonstrates it outpaces Irans strategic depth, or its ability to sustain losses, you’re giving me hasty conclusions that read like knee jerks.
My premise is the US cannot whittle away enough because it simply cannot sustain momentum due to the exhaustion of its own offensive and defensive weapons stocks, especially in an era where its hegemony is being challenged in a majority of the world.
The US manufactures ~40 tomahawks per year. And they don’t plan on using them all on Iran unless long term planning is outright abandoned for short term success. They’ll have to rely on GBUs and endless sorties hoping it’s enough to unseat the regime, but history proves it won’t work without ground troops, and/or an established anti-government organization willing to work with the foreign power.
Iran has decades planning for this conflict with asymmetric responses during an attrition stand off. But it also now has economic, material, and ISR backing by Russia and China. In fact I’d argue the latter two have inserted themselves in the kill chain.
😂Awwww, bless you. Didn’t quite work out as you thought, did it?
Want to actually share your premise, or perhaps a specific claim rather than hide in the shadows while tossing your handkerchief at the bandwagon, lol?
You are delusional and I am glad you are delusional as you are self-destructing real time due to your boundless arrogance. I won't moarn your people when wheel of history turns again, you truly brought it upon yourself, as our ancestors warned us for thousands of years in hundreds of countries.
Mmmm Seems to me the Iranian strike rate is slowly increasing with air defenses now all but gone over Israel.
I understand why you made your comment given the news channel feeds. But I have this "feeling" things are not going well for Israel at all. The Iranian regime know they are dead ducks if they give in and being fundamentalists I suspect they will seek to take down everyone else with them since "Allah is on their side".
I expect more military insults lie ahead.
Maybe they are striking targets at will but Iran is obviously doing the same. And yes, Israel and the US are very likely to use the nukes. After all: if you are already a terrorist state hellbent on targeting civilians because you cannot fight in pure old-fashioned military way, as Russia does for example - then nuking innocents is a normal thing for you to do. You have never had morals, so notning will stop you now.
No, Iran is obviously not striking targets at will.
No, there's no need to use nukes when you already own the skies.
Russia targets ukranian civilians, just like jihadis do. Israel and the US don't.
Keep cheering for the shrinking jihadi death cult 👍
‘Russia targets civilians’: 15,000 dead in less than 4 years, in a conflict zone 233,000 square miles. ‘Israel doesnt’: 200,000 dead in less than 3 years, in a conflict zone 200 square miles. My god, the quality of contributors has gone off a cliff on Substack. 😂
Here’s one of my previous responses to you, so don’t go claiming Panchita also blocked you. A quick note: Slander and ad hominem has the effect of motivating me, so feel free to call me a traitor, racist, homophobe, fatphobe. Again, these baseless accusations elicit a comical reaction more than shame. Moving on…
Please Don’t parrot propaganda at me, especially since I’ve read somewhere youre about facts and against regime regurgitation.
Yes, Irans capabilities have been reduced , but unless you can give me data that demonstrates it outpaces Irans strategic depth, or its ability to sustain losses, you’re giving me hasty conclusions that read like knee jerks.
My premise is the US cannot whittle away enough because it simply cannot sustain momentum due to the exhaustion of its own offensive and defensive weapons stocks, especially in an era where its hegemony is being challenged in a majority of the world.
The US manufactures ~40 tomahawks per year. And they don’t plan on using them all on Iran unless long term planning is outright abandoned for short term success. They’ll have to rely on GBUs and endless sorties hoping it’s enough to unseat the regime, but history proves it won’t work without ground troops, and/or an established anti-government organization willing to work with the foreign power.
Iran has decades planning for this conflict with asymmetric responses during an attrition stand off. But it also now has economic, material, and ISR backing by Russia and China. In fact I’d argue the latter two have inserted themselves in the kill chain.
Joe Kent did not say that the administration is subservient to Israel. It's worth rereading what he wrote if that was your take-away. He said that people loyal to Israel are influencing Trump and the administration with bad information.
There's a difference between being under the control or blindly controlled by an outside party, and trusting people who are presenting you information and are loyal to that outside party.
Kent rather stupidly blamed not only this war but also the Iraq War and the death of his first wife at the hands of ISIS on Israel.
There's a word for people who blame all the world's troubles on Jews.
Israel certainly lobbied hard for the War On Iraq, even adding to the lies about WMDs or Iraq being linked to 9/11.
Just because you say “certainly” doesn’t make it true. In fact, it is false. Were you around then? I was. Israel openly opposed the war and lobbied against it. This is in the public record- you can look it up. Israel’s reasons should be obvious. (A minor one, of course, was that they saw Iran as the threat. But the major ones are, as I said, much more obvious.)
I suppose you can brush that off as some sort of cover. Israel-blamers always find explanations deep in the weeds. But that doesn’t make the explanations true.
Obviously there were Jews- US neocons- who favored the war. But there are non-Jewish neocons too. And Israel generally wishes the neocons would shut up. Their ideas are just as dangerous for Israel as they are for the US, if not more so. Amazingly, not all Jews have the same opinion, and that’s especially true between American and Israeli ones.
And I know this may come as a shock to those who think the Jooooooz are behind everything and give no agency to non-Jews, but believe it or not, American gentiles are perfectly capable to doing stupid things on their own, with no nefarious Hebrew influence. Considering how much good they’ve done on their own, I give them that “credit.”
I don't recall anything Israel did to oppose the war. I do recall Netanyahu testifiying before Congress.
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-107hhrg83514/html/CHRG-107hhrg83514.htm
Otherwise, you argue with points I never made. Israel in it current iteration is detestable, granted. But you never will hear me blame all Jews or claim that all Jews are neocons, all neocons are Jews or that Israel represents all Jews.
Netanyahu was not in the government at the time, at all. He was a private citizen.
Here are a couple of sources:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2002/02/07/israel-emphasizes-iranian-threat/b033ec97-9ad4-4ed2-8b2c-c13e3dc823f0/
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2007/08/29/israel-warned-us-not-invade-iraq-after-911
And I’ll thank you not to use a phrase like “detestable, granted” in reference to my country, “current iteration” or not. Again, just because you say “granted” doesn’t make it true, and it certainly doesn’t mean I agree with you. In fact, Israel is about the opposite of “detestable.”
Kent was 100% correct.
Well, that settles it, then! Wow, there’s nothing we Jews can’t do…starting every war in history, the Black Death, the death of JFK and Jesus…damn, are we powerful. I guess that explains why I and my family are running to a bomb shelter multiple times a day.
This is what happens when you born other countries, they bomb you back. Don’t start wars.
Your valiant effort to contribute more evidence that anti-Semites are ignoramuses as well as hateful is noted, but not really necessary.
Or maybe most Americans are just tired of 47 years of Iranian turban head bullshit and because they are not China or Russia on a truly strategic scale, enough of all this side show quasi and full blown terror sponsor sideshow. I know this will trigger the America haters big time but in real geopolitics, Russia and China can survive just fine without the mullahs or their oil. The current Iranian regime has just been a convenient condom for the Russians and the Chinese and now it needs to be pulled off. Do you really think the Russian or Chinese civilizations give two shits about the Shias of the world..?
Why exactly do Americans care how Iranians dress? They're half a world away. Iran has very little interaction with Americans and little or no influence on it.
You should just be honest, Sodak; say "I'm tired of Iranian bullshit making noises about not selling their oil in U.S. Dollars". And "I'm an entitled American who believes I can dictate how people half a world away conduct their business".
I see you.
Maybe if they didn't start and end every speech with "death to America" you'd have a point.
Just be honest and admit you want the Iranian regime to win.
Airheads like you never bother to figure out why they chant "death to America". It's no because "they hate your freedoms" I can tell you that.
You'd have to give some idea of what "win" means for me to agree or disagree. That's sort of the problem with the whole exercise. Trump's already declared victory a few times in the past week - so it would be nonsensical for me to agree with you when the opposite is already "facts on the ground".
For the regime to survive
Does saber rattling really hurt you that much? Should we invade NK for their saber rattling? Will you go fight for these wars you support?
To your accusations about this war, Hell yeah I want the regime to survive. Iran is fighting for the world against bumpkins obsessed with retaining hegemonic power. But you think ideological slander will curtail this fact, lol!? Call me a racist, misogynist, fatphobic, because I’ll call out your obsession with onlyfools, you’re climbing obesity rates, drug abuse, failed marriages, marriage rates, child birth rates, failing education, and the list goes on. This government must be humbled by a lesser power, so that the foundation can be reset and prosperity can return. Let it be disciplined because we discipline those we love (certainly not the so called elites).
Admit it, you’re really upset because they burned a statue of Baal
I could give a fuck what the Shias sell their oil in, make it Zimbabwe dollars if they like. You think the Chicoms don't like being part of the global "move money around the world every 24 hours" game?? So you "see me"...who cares. I don't. You probably couldn't do any real work with your hands if you tried. Come pick some heirloom corn with me bare handed and then you can "see me".
I detassled corn throughout my childhood. I've owned a farm, horses, cows, and can fix pretty much anything mechanical. You make a lot of assumptions.
people who have no real arguments tend to jump to discussing their opponent real or imaginary personality traits very quickly
Iran is a civilisational state. As opposed to a washed up, declining, colonial backwater.
Iran was once a civilizational state. They haven't been since 1979.
Don't worry though. Us colonials will fix that 🤣
Everywhere you go in the US is a shit show. Infrastructure looks like it fell out the dogs arse. Why not just stay home and fix your own stuff? You'd be happier. We'd be happier. What's not to like?
How is that relevant to who will win the war?
I am not sure what you are on about, let me guess? 9/11? Nope, Sunni fanatics, sponsored and funded by Saudi Arabia and the Gulfie tyrannies.
Al Qaeda? Nope, Sunni fanatics, sponsored and funded by Saudi Arabia and the Gulfie tyrannies.
ISIS? Nope, Sunni fanatics, sponsored and funded by Saudi Arabia and the Gulfie tyrannies.
But go on, tell how bad Iran is.
all of those groups were funded and sponsored by the US and Israel. Saudies and Gulf states are third in line here
Cheers, I was here to write just that.
if you are tired of 47 years of Iranian turban head bullshit leave the f.. them alone. Let them deal themselves with their turbans or their alleged bullshit. Nothing of it is you f...g business
C'mon dude, spell out your curse words!! The word is (or has the root) "fuck" so use it!!!!
I don't know for China but Russia reached diplomatic agreements with Iran which lasts for about 200 years. Except for brief period of WW2 when USSR and Great Brittain have to occupy Iran. For Russia it's just a neighbour which is not friendly but not hostile too. Of course 2 neigbouring states always interact with each other. But Russia and Iran not much. Even if Russia has some constructive initiative it's hard to get the support from Iran and both contries have very few common projects. Russia simply has not much to protect in Iran. Yes Russia can support Iran because in this situation having Iran is better than not having and it's good for Russia if USA will be busy for some time. Normal geoplitics if your adversary participate in a war help his enemy. Nothing personal just business.
But when Russia suggested to build Iranian air defense Iran decided to buy the components from the different countries which hard to integrate with each other. How Russian SAMs work the whole word knows. How Chinese SAMs work? Nobody knows. Now Iran has air defense problems. Muammar Gaddafi acted the same way showing Russia his middle finger. Before him Broz Tito did that too. But somehow it always turns out that these who showed Russia middle fingers are bombed by Western countries.
Nasty
And a poseur.
100% correct Feral. I just added the nuclear option as "Option 4"myself in a comment..
I find it "almost" incredible that our so called "Free Press" are not
1. Raising the argument that Israel is driving US policy
2. Not questioning the vast amount of money spent on THAAD and Patriot systems that OBVIOUSLY DO NOT WORK
3. Asking why 2 "real estate" based Jewish friends of Trump constituted the US Negotiations team. My comment is NOT antisemitic but simply factual as to how their skills and cultural background could possibly be considered suitable international political/military based negotiations experts!
Much as I dislike the Iranian theocracy I remain astounded at the seemingly lack of understanding by Israel and the US that this would not go as they "planned."
We are all go to pay for this historical mistake........ and unless Trump continues to fool most of the people most of the time; the November mid terms are going to send a clear message.
Simple - the US and Israel never intended to negotiate, as there is no negotiated agreement that would turn Iran into a failed state as demanded by Israel.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/17/uk-security-adviser-attended-us-iran-talks-and-judged-deal-was-within-reach
They could've given up their nuclear program and stopped stockpiling ballistic missiles.
They chose not to. Now it's FAFO time
Like blaming a robbery victim for getting shot because he didn't give up his wallet.
🤣 more like putting a gun to a terrorists head
Sonce the United States started this war, your analogy breaks. Robbers and rapists often gin up similarly transparent justifications.
The real story is of course Iran would seek a nuclear weapon. The regime would be stupid not to. Look at Pakistan - nukes and despite their support of Islamic terrorism, no US bombing or attacks. If Trump or the US were serious about the threats of Islamic terror to the U.S., Saudi Arabia wouldn't be an ally and Pakistan would have been bombed to smithereens years ago.
If Iran simply wanted a nuclear weapon, there's nothing stopping them from making a dirty bomb right now.
Your factually unsupported notion that Epstein exerted control over Trump, and therefore Israel is dictating war policy, is a salacious legacy media myth trotted out by Trump haters. This is the same crowd that for the past 10 years have raised their voices repeatedly claiming “We’ve got him now!” -without results.
The author’s theories stand up to scrutiny far better.
A true believer
So, does Trump act like he has nothing to hide or not?
Perhaps US angle was to attack Iran not because of the nuclear threat, but to provoke it in order to punish the GCC countries - for slowly abandoning the petrodollar system, over the last few years. Any oil producing country attempting to break away from petrodollar was brutally punished. Iraq. Libya. The nuance with GCC countries is that these are US allies on paper, whose interests are to be protected by US military assets. How to punish them then? An outcome of this war is a destruction of their economic output and projected security image. The deal was petrodollar oil for security and US detterence. Not working out, currently. As Big Serge mentioned - sequence of things matter. First, the US secured access to vast Venezuelan oil resources, which are now to be exploited by US oil and gas sector. Next, Iran was attacked provoking an obvious response. Cheers.
Access to vast Venezuelan reserves may be true but it needs a great amount of development - so again real estate with future potential if any oil companies are willing to risk their investment to develop it. #
Nothing forthcoming soon- pipe dream see DJT - but enough vain glory to make him willing to take on Iran for Bibi.
GCC abandonment and destruction probably will end the petro dollar agreements - talk about collateral damage for the US.
US and GCC both took big hits- can’t believe the Secretary of War did not game plan this potential response by Iran to US infrastructure and the punishment meted out to the oil emirates. Didn’t help that US took oil countries munitions for Israel.
Petrodollar is old finance. The new policy is tariffs to rebuild the industrial base in the USA.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/u-s-manufacturing-is-in-retreat-and-trumps-tariffs-arent-helping-d2af4316?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqfmy0qRAgZdhI5h4uKWqAwBgHV4nEmHGimGjA5IC7Lz5W-kOOWuofruQiiQlMY%3D&gaa_ts=69baf299&gaa_sig=FcFPBFpLckN1oeLKYA7zWGQ19ONmNycaN1nreiBL0mCXqo2uhRPHN41AUfwNzED32ViviGMpBYoPEJwLsoJcCg%3D%3D
WSJ hates tariffs - they are adherents of the petrodollar. Anyway, if you follow the industrial vital signs in Europe, they are plunging. While in the US employment has been inching up when at the same time more than 2 Mio illegals self-deported.
Still shooting the messenger because the data doesn't do what you want.
There are few unbiased messengers. Like I asked you what you thought about BBC and their Ukraine war reporting. With almost any newspaper or news medium - it's propaganda first. Journalists are combatants. Like lawyers in a court.
The first version of a US failed state was Somalia and the last one is the US.
I agree. And dismissing "red heifers" is to dismiss the very real and strong Jewish Messianic motivation to build the third temple on the ruins of al Aqsa.
No need for Epstein, both Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are Israeli assets and Trump has a long history doing whatever Jared wants. Trump has said he thinks Jared is the smartest person in the world. Jared has been shaking down the sheiks lately and, with all that insider information, is likely making a fortune on the swings in the oil matker.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/iran-nuclear-weapons-who-warning-b2941153.html
Feral Finster
sigh....... the Epstein connection.
Ok. What was the Israel lobby's power before Epstein? How is it different now than before? What political faction with any power in America ever, ever said ....just let Israel get conquered, destroyed and knocked out of existence and do absolutely nothing to stop its enemies from taking over the Middle East? When has Israel not used that American commitment to its own advantage?
I'm not asking what you think should happen with Israel. I am talking about the political reality of the last fifty years of American foreign policy.
Nobody said that it began or ended with Epstein. In fact, I suspect that Epstein is just the one we know about.
So this is pretty good, and I mean not to quibble, but I think most people are operating with limited information when it comes to the missile launches.
For one thing, Iran is huge and mountainous, so it was never possible with the assets available to cover Iran sufficiently to seriously degrade the TELs. Hundreds of fighters even with isr are not going to be able to meaningfully attrit the amount of launchers claimed, especially in the mountains as the geographic area is just too enormous.
It must also be noted that a TEL is not super complicated to build, and no doubt Iran probably has closer to thousands than hundreds.
There are also numerous videos now showing many launches being carried out from random spots on the ground where the missile is covered only by a small amount of soil. How many of these are there? No way to tell.
Finally, the eastern missile bases and the eastern region has hardly launched anything. Mostly it is the western and central commanders firing off mrbms. Of the active ones Israel has constantly claimed to take them out, only for launches to resume later.
Israel and the united states do not, and did not have the ability to degrade the strike systems of Iran, and basically have not made any more a meaningful dent in the Iranian strike capacity than they did in the 12 day war.
Now why was there a large spread of strikes during the first two days that quickly fell off? Well as everyone is well aware, Iran's isr is heavily dependent on China and to a lesser extent Russia. The initial wave caused everyone to turn on their radars and reveal nearly all interception and detection systems, which usually do not move around much.
Since then, Iran has consistently launched strikes at everything that lit up during those days, and has had spectacular success. The Israelis are viciously lying and censoring everything, but even then the truth eventually comes out and all these open areas missiles are falling into coincidentally had important assets there.
The Iranians are also waging psychological warfare- the north of Israel is being evacuated, and there has hardly been an hour without the sounds of sirens and explosions everywhere in Israel.
Our force posture also suggests that we have done little of what Pete has claimed: Iran still has air defense that keeps overflights from happening - nearly all videos and pictures from the US show bombers armed with jassms because Iran still had numerous radar, including oth, that function and numerous ad batteries.
The naval forces which have been blown up 10x already have clearly had enough success to force our csgs away from the coast.
So Iran is in firm control of where the war ends, with the epstein axis committed to loud, showy spectacle that is instead turning into a slow moving slog, where the end result can only be what Iran wants, even if their visible and charismatic command structure is constantly being threatened.
And remember, Iran has hardly launched any cruise missiles or drones in proportion to their speculated inventories, and Iran's missile stockpile, if estimates are to be believed are still enormous.
(EDIT: finally got back to a desktop to fix some spelling mistakes.)
Good post. Rather better than the BS piece.
"Iran still has air defense that keeps overflights from happening - nearly all videos and pictures from the US show bombers armed with jassms because Iran still had numerous radar, including oth, that function and numerous ad batteries."
FPRI claims that the US used >500 JDAMs and 160 SDBs in the first 96 hours of the conflict. Although these do have ranges of tens of kilometers when fired from high altitudes, this shows that the US/IDF air forces clearly believed that they had minimal long-range AA threats against them
https://t.co/UXVoAzLAJN
Many thanks, you raise good points. I am quite disappointed by Serge’s analysis, tbh. IMO 90% of the talk about the TELs is pure USraeli propaganda. You can see in the picture provided in the piece that the TEL is based on a commercial truck trailer, including the canvas cover to conceal it. A Chinese dump trailer that already includes the hydraulics you need to raise an icbm costs less than 10.000$ , that’s literally a 20 second google search. You can build the rest of the electronics and extra hydraulic pump in a modular way and bolt it in place afterwards, and that’s it. No fockin rocket science. Hell, I’m pretty sure the Iranians have been outsourcing these to China and have been receiving them via railway by the hundreds…
Also, almost no discussion about the logistics and depletion of stocks of critical US munitions like AD interceptors and long range attack missiles. Poor. Very poor analysis indeed.
Excellent comment, and dare I say it, much more nuanced than the original which seemed low-key cheerleading for aggressors.
Iran can keep valuable air defense only in importal regions. The losses of civilians in unprotected regions are not pleasant but it's something that 90 mln Iran can tolerate for keeping it's missile production and launching ability. As I know American planes keep away from dangers zones using long range missiles. And Ukrainian example shows that bombing everything out in big country is very hard. 1000 or even 10000 cruise missiles are not enough. Of course Ukraine inherited a lot of reserves from USSR but Iran even bigger. I doubt that USA has so many bombs.
"Shahed"-like drones can be stocked by tens of thousands. And Russia can give more.
Iran can keep valuable air defense only in importal regions. The losses of civilians in unprotected regions are not pleasant but it's something that 90 mln Iran can tolerate for keeping it's missile production and launching ability. As I know American planes keep away from dangers zones using long range missiles. And Ukrainian example shows that bombing everything out in big country is very hard. 1000 or even 10000 cruise missiles are not enough. Of course Ukraine inherited a lot of reserves from USSR but Iran even bigger. I doubt that USA has so many bombs.
"Shahed"-like drones can be stocked by tens of thousands. And Russia can give more.
I don’t know where you get the idea that Iran’s capabilities are significantly degraded. You really have no idea how many missiles and drones they have or what the can continue to produce or replenish, especially vis-à-vis the depleting rate of US assets and AD in the gulf and in Isreal. You keep talking about launchers as if they can’t reproduce launchers or be resupplied in any form. More importantly, Iran has vast number of missiles and drones produced in underground factories that continue operating by all accounts. Some of these missile factories and storage depots are deeply buried and fortified with silos for launching that don’t even need ground based launchers.
On the other hand, US has lost a tremendous or obscene percentage of its military bases and ground based logistics, including its vaunted radars for early warning and missile defense. I think the sheer military damage to Iran is dwarfed by the strategic and material (trillions counting the bases just in Qatar and Bahrain) losses of the US in just two weeks.
Israel is already being decimated, and only a fool would think it would take much to pulverize it into Stone Age by targeting what’s left of its infrastructure and industry given it’s a shitty little totally dependent colony in the midst of a multi front war going into its third year. On the other hand, Iran’s allies are well activated and thriving though they were deemed significantly depleted too just six months ago. Isreal is now forced to fight on the northern front against a revamped or reawakened Hezbollah and US forces are being expelled from Iraq, Syria, Jordan, the vassal gulf states, after decades of expanded stationing and occupation.
I mostly agree with your general conclusions, but citing the above in addition to the real nuclear option of economic squeeze that Iran has inflicted and appears fully capable of continuing without the US being able to do shit about it before the shit they’re receiving literally hits the global energy and financial markets fan. I think you spent a great amount of time and thought writing this long piece, yet with some glaring omissions in tactical and military analysis!
You must solely live on X...
And you must be exclusively in an asylum!
Sure, baby sure. They let us have lots of toys here :) :) :)
Yep. They all taste like Skittles to me but I do drool a bit using them. Will you still kiss me if I drool (pretty please)...??
Fred, when the doctor said PUSH, your mother pulled.
That's a good one! I'll have to keep it in my back pocket for another time ;) ...
Insane levels of copium
Not surprised a Zio delusional moron would react as such! Stay on your planet where the average IQ is lower than room temperature!
Nah, just allergic to the bullshit you peddle.
Is that why 20% of Nobel laureates are Jews? 🤣
Unit 8200 spotted
Unit 8200 are supposed to be smart, though.
My friend, you'd better start looking for a safe haven because you're practically begging for a pogrom, which I have a feeling will happen in the US. Their population is already eagerly searching for a scapegoat and they're looking to the jews.
Patagonia is waiting for them…
Yeah nice to buy their way into any club! Does that include Epstein too? 🤣🤣🤣. He was a genius! Are you a pedophile also or just a delusional psychopath like most Zio scum?
More desperate copium 🤣
Keep crying over dead jihadis 🤣
Your stupidity only allows you to project like a frustrated whiner! Crawl into your hole screaming like a little rat in solidarity with Tel Aviv!
You goin bro?
Never in the history of aviation in warfare has a country been beaten by air strikes alone.
Serbia in 1999?
Serbia gave up because Yeltsin abandoned them
Yes, but there was no ground invasion or threat of such.
That's not exactly the case. UN peace keepers reported US flying in ground troops in clandestine flights from 1992 to 1997. That is documented in Canadian National Achive in documents declassified in Dec 2023. No US troops were put on the ground but 1,000s of Muslim troops flown in, largely from Afghanistan were in the ground. The US also used proxies from former Yugoslavian countries. Additionally, the UK and US both positioned troops there. Thd US has a base in Kosovo. Serbia ultimately capitulated because the issue of ground forces was decided for them by Russia and the US. It was not the air campaign by itself that brought about the collapse of Yugoslavia, but various proxy ground forces on the ground combined with a lack of support from Russia or its own constant parts.
A few US special forces are not what won the Kosovo War, nor the various American proxies.
We are not talking about a few special forces. We are talking about a CIA funded Army coordinated through several US NGOs and the State Department numbering in the 1,000s over 10,000 troops altogether. The proxies, paid for by the US numbered in the 10s of thousands as well. That is a far cry above a few special forces. Isolation from Russia support and a permanent US base with US snd UK engaged in combat operations played a big factor as well. And the US flew in non-combatants as well to shift demographics particularly in Kodovo. The air campaign did not bring Yugoslavia to its knees.
The mass destruction of the Serbian industrial base was a larger factor
The US funded KLA alone numbered over 25,000 - 30,000 by 1998. When other proxies are added US backed ground forces exceeded 40,000 troops. Their actions on the ground were essential to US victory / Yugoslavia defeat. Later action involved direct involvement of regular US troops.
Serbia was a small country, surrounded by hostile / NATO countries, without any logistic lifelines to friendly countries. OTC, short logistics for the attacker. Serbia was under siege with no relief option.
Not arguing that (although sanctions busting was a big business in Bulgaria).
Serbia had a population of about 6 million or so. Iran’s population is over 92 million. Different scale completely.
Fine but it's not relevant to the point.
Nope. In fact after 78 days NATO pulled the plug on airstrikes because the attrition rate was so high. They lost a ton of planes. And then the Serbs rolled out all their armor which had been hidden in bunkers and caves.
During that time more civilians were murdered than military personnel.
So I don't think Serbia qualifies.
But in the end Serbia surrendered, or rather, gave up Kosovo.
They did. And it was and remains a tragedy.
No argument from me.
Ditto for Syria- Al Qaida rebranded as Isis
Japan surrendered because the Marines successfully stormed the beaches of Japan.
Complete bullshit. Japan surrendered after the Soviet Union entered the war and defeated them in Manchuria and Sakhalin. You are completely brainwashed.
Soviets were on the verge of invading Hokkaido. That’s why Truman went nuclear
Check the dates. LOL.
History books lie - winners write the history - Truman went nuclear cause he had a lethal new toy- not a truly upstanding man - being the ‘first’ was very seductive- see Hiroshima Revisited- nuclear blast may not have been nuclear at all. Lies our leaders told us - endless- just listen to Trump - continual lies and obfuscations but people so needy for a ‘leader’ they take him at his ever changing words.
"people so needy for a ‘leader’ they take him at his ever changing words." That numbers is declining every day. Before long it will be only the true cultists & zios.
Japan till the end hoped that USSR will be an umpire in the negitation. They didn't know of Soviet-American agreement that USSR will attack Japan no later than in 3 months after the end of the European war.
Three months. Just enough time to move his armies from combat on the Russian western front so as to set up against the Japanese on Russia's eastern front.
@Matt
Japan surrendered because the USN destroyed their shipping assets, starving and strangling their empire of resources from the Pacific, then the Russians rolled up the majority of their Asian posessions in a few weeks, also cutting off the home islands resources from Asia.
They had too few indigenous natural resources to continue their fight, were running out of men, ships and aircraft & knew that continuing resistance to the point of facing an island invasion from combined USA + USSR with no resources to counter that would not be beneficial.
The Japanese had been trying to surrender for several weeks BEFORE the nuclear bombings, in the end they were more realistic than the German power structure.
More American hallucinations.
@Stephen Walker
Which of the many hallucinating Americans were you addressing? There are so many of us!
Everything you said about shipping and strangulating natural resources is true.
I wasn’t trying to say that it was only literally airplanes that defeated Japan, but to point out that victory without boots on the ground is very possible.
Can the US, through airstrikes, sanctions and blockades bring Iran to the point of surrender? (without putting boots on the ground?)
I think it’s at least possible.
@Matt
(Quote)
"Can the US, through airstrikes, sanctions and blockades bring Iran to the point of surrender?"
----------
Consider that the surrender of Iran is likely not the actual ultimate objective of our oligarchy, nor is "surrender" necessary to achieve their actual goals?
You have likely noticed by now that the sequential and contradictory plethora of excuses for starting this phase of WWIII bloviated about by Trump et alia for the last 3 weeks are illogical, nonsensical and have little relation to what is happening (and was predicted to happen by any competent analysts before their attack on Iran was begun).
The degradation of Iran's infrastructure and severe infrastructure damage to ALL petro states across the whole region + Israel itself clearly WERE desired (or at least reasonably agreeable) effects brought on by the USA's attack.
The inevitable degradation and damages to all societies world wide which were dependant on those petro states energy resources and fertilizer production was easily foreseen and is not the great surprise some now pretend to find it.
The USA will still have oil, natural gas and enough food to prevent mass starvation, as will much (but not all!) of the Western Hemisphere. So does the Russian Federation. And everywhere else will be more or less damaged, degraded or outright destroyed... How will "multipolarism" be working out, how much of BRICS will still be thinking they can do whatever they like for trade and currencies? Who is going to park their investments in tiny Gulf kingdoms? Will they want to put their cash into Euro funds or US T bills?
Read this:
https://ehadnameh.substack.com/p/69-engineering-friction?utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true
PFC Billy
All true except for one thing. You talk about surrender like there is only one form of surrender. The Japanese wanted to negotiate a surrender. They believed with a desperately loyal population and close to a million man army still intact, they could negotiate some kind of deal with the Americans.
When the Soviets not only wiped out the last of their army and threatened to invade a relatively undefended part of their homeland, they decided to take whatever deal America was willing to give them. That surrender is what was signed on the American battle ship in Tokyo bay. Not the deal they thought they could get while they still had the Manchurian army intact which was ready to reach Japan in a short period.
And elements of the German leadership were trying to surrender. But again they wanted to negotiate a deal not an unconditional surrender.
Thanks, I'm aware of how the last acts of Japan's Asian war played out, between the USA, USSR and the desire to retain the Emperor.
https://birdinflight.com/en/inspiration/20221111-nobuo-kiuchi-drawings.html
Japan didn't win any serious battle since the defeat at Midway Atoll.
Libya 2012
Al Qaida in both Serbia & Libya
Better al-Qaeda eating Libya internally than Gadafi acting externally.
No al-Qaeda in Serbia, which has been a steadfast US and Israel ally.
But without the 12 tons of gold to heist.
I'm gonna go with "an overtly nefarious parasite which manipulates the American government through a mixture of campaign contributions, religious trickery, and blackmail." And "psychopathic heinous morally depraved butchers."
As he said, you're wrong.
Hundreds of thousands of Jews say I'm right.
No. As OP stated, you're wrong.
How many books have you read on the subject? I've read close to 100, many by Jews, including Israelis. Saying that a state that ignores international law and the Geneva Conventions is "just acting like a state" is hardly an argument. The US and Israel are rogue, repellent, fascistic states led by psychopaths and sociopaths. This fact has been pointed out by numerous psychiatrists and psychologists, a number of them Jews, including Israelis who have rejected Zionism in disgust..
You've read a hundred books, but cannot recognize a Jewish troll when facing one. :-D
I'm afraid I can. The Jewish part is not the relevant thing here, however. It's the Zionism. He could just as easily be a Christian Zionist.
Lotta whining from someone who lives in the West and benefits from everything the US and Israel are doing.
OMG--ROFLMAO. Name a book you've read since high school. Not only ignorant, but ethics free and delusional. The trifecta.
Here is a formerly Israeli Jewish psychotherapist who understands exactly the "benefit" that Israel is providing the world: https://avigail.substack.com/p/all-israeli-soldiers-and-officers?publication_id=749647&post_id=191348819&isFreemail=true&r=1cce6&triedRedirect=true
"A longtime fixture in regional politics." Serge, you could write for the NYT. Unfortunately, that's not a compliment.
Thank you!
This is good but where would ground forces stage for even a limited invasion? Where would they resupply while under fire? Russia and Ukraine (supported by Europe) are fighting in their backyard, America is far from home.
The U.S. doesn't have to send its troops. They can try to provoke the Iraqi Kurds or Azerbaijan into a war with Iran. In fact, this is their main policy of waging war - finding useful idiots to do their dirty work.
Rompompom
They actually tried that already. It didn't work just recently. I suppose they could try again. Except it is the Kurds that would provide the muscle in that situation. Turkey would not like that process at all. Neither would Russia. Both of them are heavy hitters in the area and can make life pretty miserable for anybody especially if they had hands off cooperation with each other.
Northern isreal?
The cause for the war is that Netanyahu has wanted it forever, and with Trump on the ropes politically, this was his chance. This war is not in any way good for the US power position, nor for Trump's power position within the US political system, nor for the Republican party. Whether Israel benefits is an open question as of now. Israel had a blank check to bomb every one of its neighbors with impunity (with Egypt and Jordan long ago captured by friendly dictatorship/monarchy). Iran was not Israel's neighbor, it does not even share a land border with any of Israel's neighbors. Prior to the war, Iran was willing to de-nuclearize even more comprehensively than JCPOA. Netanyahu is very simply psycopathic and evil in a very classic sense. These things do exist in history. States are, at important moments in history, not value neutral. You can't "both-sides" this one, sorry. Doing so discredits your other work to date.
"I tend to approach these matters very differently, beginning with my assumption that Israel, the United States, and Iran are all mostly normal states that are predominantly interested in security and power-maximization." You almost lost me there. Only your other excellent articles kept me reading. Israel is nowhere close to a normal state. It is the only existing apartheid state in the world. It puts over 2 million people in an open air concentration camp. It proceeded to regularly bomb them as it also regular bombs Lebanon which it has invaded twice. What other normal state regularly bombs its neighbors? It has attacked its surroundings another 2 times in aggressive wars. It is committing genocide in GAZA and ethnic cleansing in the West Bank. It might even assassinate more people than the United States all around the world. It believes its Jewish inhabitants are God's chosen people and Palestinians are animals. This nowhere near normal.
Your misunderstanding stems from your very different working definition of "normal state". You mean something along the lines of "moral and honorable". Serge means "well organized, purposeful and functional". Was WW2 Japan a normal state? To Serge's point of view, yes. It was, of course, evil; but an organized, well-functioning state.
Most humans are hard wired not to kill each other. A major part of US Army basic training is to overcome this inhibition. Believing that sodomizing and torturing prisoners is ok is not a normal human attitude. Thankfully Believing that killing pregnant women is 2 for one is not a normal human attitude Thankfully Believing that genocide is religiously sanctioned is not a normal attitude. Thankfully. These beliefs are by definition abnormal. A state guided by abnormal beliefs of the rest of humanity is not a normal state. The US is not a normal state as it believes it is an exceptional state that has hegemony over the world. Can bomb and sanction a country such that 5oo.oo children excess deaths occur and believe that action is worthy is not an normal state. Japan from 1925 to 1945 was not a normal state but militaristic totalitarian state. War is not a normal state, Thankfully.
From at least the classical antiquity, the most fundamental goal of education was to instill in learners an ability to engage in objective disputation; the importance of agreed-upon definitions, of understanding the opponent's point before responding to it, the logic apparatus of argument and refutation, the recognition of common fallacies, the works.
Nowadays all that is lost; ostensibly educated people think that argumentation consists of tossing emotional statements past each other, while assuming that the disputant is doing likewise, and thus attempting to understand his points is a waste of time. As a result it is no longer possible to engage productively. I believe this failure of the education system is intentionally engineered, and a major faultline in what we still regard as civilization.
I would agree that Israel is a state with a government that functions. I disagree that it is a normal state. You imply that I was just tossing emotional statements at Big Serge. I was saying that I disagreed with his basic assumption that Israel is a normal state. Until the latest stages a rabid dog is a functioning dog. Would you not agree that how the Israeli government interacts with the surrounding peoples could be considered psychopathic. Israel will not be satisfied unless Iran is turned into a dysfunctional state such as Libya has become. The Trump administration seems to be caught in its own fantasies. Meanwhile the world economy is being damaged by the inability of the US to open the Hormuz strait to normal traffic. The Houthis have not activated the closing of Bab el Mandeb which the US Navy was unable to open when they closed it previously. The ability of Iran to close the strait seems not to have been dealt with in any of the US planning. People are already wondering whether the Israelis are going to use nukes on Iran or the US might. Is using nukes the actions of a normal state?
I concede that Serge's use of the term "normal" was perhaps unfortunate; what he meant would be more adequately expressed by "proper" as in, Israel is a proper state. "Normal" carries the implied connotation of psychological normalcy, which, as you observe, is definitely not the case here.
BTW, I find the rabid dog metaphor very apt. :-)
You assert, in effect, that Iran has shot its bolt and imply that it cannot continue a long war. Do you know this to be true? Are they, as you infer, out of bullets? Is it not possible that the other side is running short of attack capacity and as well as its means of defense? Will Russia and China sit by and watch Iran smashed as a nation? The idea of The Empire committing navy to Hormuz or marines to a land attack is simply absurd. How is Tel Aviv holding up? For the first time with you, I question the validity of your premises.
I feel like I explicitly said that Iran is trying to turn it into a long war. Not sure how you’re drawing this conclusion from the article.
Perhaps I did you an injustice. My own best sources believe that Iran now has a significant advantage in missiles with most of its hypersonics not destroyed or used, whereas many big American detection and tracking arrays have been put out of commission. They could be wrong in their assessment.
I felt the implication of your article was that, though Iran said it intended to continue, it had been too hurt, and didn't have the chops to do so.
Paul Edwards
I strongly doubt that Iran has the resources left to drive America out of the middle east. The point is that while Iran can perhaps continue for longer than the Americans are willing and able to do so for whatever reason, they will be unable to get an unconditional surrender from America.
Iran has no need of American surrender. It will suffice to break The Empire's absolute hold and deny it victory. Empire's usually fall through bankruptcy and attrition, not battle. Israel needs to be ruined and destroyer as a nation, as well, and it will be.
Seizing kharg changes everything
Does it? Who's seizing it, do you imagine?
The thrust of your arguments are essentially in favour of the US-Israeli combine with a reluctant concession to the victim country and opposition,Iran.Essentially to balance the scales and look open-ended as also to shield yourself from a possible upending of the principal premises - Israel-American combine have mostly achieved its war aims of sufficiently though not permanently crippling the enemy.
Bullets aren't the same as IRBMs. You must not be seeing the Iranian drones getting wasted by various forms of CAP, including attack helicopters. Doesn't take very many 30 mike mike rounds to waste a thin skinned drone. Better luck next time!
You are a geopolitical idiot fed on U.S. media bullshit.
Sorry but when you openly call for the overthrow of America, your POV is utterly dismissable
Ohh, such a stud!! Get laid much??
Are you 15? 😂
Sodak Fred
Uhhh....some of those drones carry anti-air missiles specifically designed to deal with helicopters that come within thirty millimeter range. No helicopter pilot is going to come within thirty millimeter range of a swarm of a dozen attacking drones, some of which have greater speed and maneuverability than he does.
Wow, you speak with such authority for all combat helicopter pilots. Must be some good AI generated video on X of drones constantly shooting down helicopter gunships. By the way, have you ever flown an AH-64 Apache..?
Infantile moron...
Party on Garth!!
The problem that there can be hundreds of drones in the swarm and unlike cruise missiles they can be produced in tens of thousands. You can down 50% or even 75% of the drones but remaining will hit the targents. Huge air defence network is required but only Russia has it. And shoots down 97% of the targets.
Ukrainian helicopter intercepted Russian drones now Russian drones can be armed with air-to-air missiles. And shooting from very close distance can be dangerous if the drone detonates.
At the end of this war, all US military assets in the Gulf Arab satrapies will be razed to ashes and Israel cut down to size. US hegemony in the Middle East has no chance of returning to status quo ante.
Hahahaha!!!
An outstanding piece of analysis.
Trump miscalculated and will likely be impeached and convicted after the midterms. Wars have never been won without boots on the ground. My biggest fear, other than thermonuclear, is a false flag operation in the US.
Trump deserves The Nuremberg Treatment.
Just one of a long, long list frankly.
He can’t be stupid. He deserves it and he surely knows he will lose the midterms. He’s also uniquely prideful. This, to me, suggests he plans a coup, or false flag to justify suspending the usual election cycle (à la his favorite Ukrainian dictator.) If not before the midterms then surely before he leaves office, when he has to know he’ll be tried and sentenced to spend the rest of his life behind bars. His political enemies hate him that fervently.
Trump may be hated, but he deserves worse than imprisonment.
Of course, his domestic enemies would incarcerate him for relatively mundane palace drama and not for his real crimes.
Watching mid level employees fight each other is a Punch &Judy show
That's exactly what they'll do. He took some money out of the cookie jar, oh how disgraceful for the honor of the presidency. Dems won't go anywhere near the rape, child abuse, war crimes, or foreign influence, all of which also implicate their own leaders. Probably will be too cowardly to touch the quickly maturing fascist structures in DHS too, just like Obama didn't do squat about the Patriot act which was the foundation for it.
Trump just sacrificed his position out of obedience to the Cabal. He will not be effectively prosecuted. He will get a golden parachute in one form or another.
More copium. Just keep the illegals from voting or at least in their current little blue shit hole districts.
A lot of piss poor assumptions, the worst being that Israel/Epstein doesn't control Trump.
Trumps Mark Levin blow job tweet was particularly sickening.
No deterrence after the summer war? Are you sure? No allies or proxies' capacities? Are you sure? How come Herzbollah has so many rockets? (even without Syria). And the Houthis (not entering yet)? And the Iraqi militias? (Bagdad is very kino at the moment). I think your premisses are the same as Israeli's at the beginning - and they proved wrong. And yes, speaking of Gaza in terms of military victory is quite rich (and also military wrong, by the way). I bet it will be nº 1 (with war compensations, whatever the form)
"the Trump Administration has been unusually bad about communicating either motives or explicit aims for the conflict"
UNUSUALLY bad? Surely you meant "bad as usual"! Trump's administration changed the motives behind the attack on Venezuela multiple times both before and after it, not to mention his kabuki theatre on Russia...
Quds Commander Esmail Qaani has not been killed, as far as I know. Actually, there are even unconfirmed rumours that he could be a Mossad assets, since he allegedly survived multiple Israeli attacks.
"The horizontal escalation to include Arab countries hosting American assets"
I'd rather say "to include American assets in Arab countries".
You repeat multiple times that USrael has "clear air superiority", but has it really? How many aircraft has USrael lost? Quite a few already: 3 F-15 or F-16, I do not remember from top of my head, over Bahrain in just a few hours on one of the first days of the war + 2 Stratotankers over Iraq more recently, not to mention reports of other fighter jets being downed over Iran. As far as I know, most of the attacks on Iran have been with standoff weapons such as the Tomahawk.
Finally, you provided quite a limited explanation on why this war. I understand that a deeper one would require an article on itself, however the one provided is too shallow and should consider at least broader geopolitical objectives (and, whether you like it or not, some messianic view in (Christian) Zionism). For the interested reader, I would recommend these 2 articles:
- https://geopolitiq.substack.com/p/what-they-dont-tell-you-the-real
- https://geopolitiq.substack.com/p/why-iran
I will have another one coming soon offering a new perspective.
P.S.: No mention of the other factions of the Axis of Resistance (Hezbollah in Lebanon and others in Iraq) battering USrael and its allies (e.g. France and Italy, the latter of which left Iraq)?
1. You fail to understand the distinction between "air superiority" and "air supremacy", even though Serge went to the trouble of providing accepted definitions of both.
2. Serge presents a convincing argument that mundane considerations provide sufficient incentive for this war, without the need to invoke the occult. This is not to say there are no racist or psycho motivations; but by Occam's razor, they are redundant.