I'm aware of geography. Russia produces roughly 10 million barrels/day. China consumes over 14 million barrels/day. And that's just oil. Consider food and other critical inputs. Without sea transport for it's purchases and sales, China becomes an extremely difficult country to govern. Analogy to the novel Dune. "He who can destroy a thin…
I'm aware of geography. Russia produces roughly 10 million barrels/day. China consumes over 14 million barrels/day. And that's just oil. Consider food and other critical inputs. Without sea transport for it's purchases and sales, China becomes an extremely difficult country to govern.
Analogy to the novel Dune. "He who can destroy a thing (spice), controls a thing." We can destroy most of China's trade. The only way they can reciprocate is through nukes, and if anyone goes nuclear, we all lose. And hopefully we all find a way to ratchet down the military posturing and learn to live with each other.
Destroying China's trade means destroying American imports. China and the US are like 2 drunk guys leaning against each other and holding each other up.
The difference is that China has the machine tools and knowhow to run them. They just need to find new customers. What does America have ?
Reserve currency status is a blessing but ultimately a curse. By it's nature, it leads to the movement of productive capacity off shore from the US. This limits US options as our domestic economy would contract a lot if it were cut off from our offshore supply chain.
Would it not then become a contest of social and economic attrition ? Which society is better equipped to compel the compliance of it's population ? America is already deeply divided and that is before most Americans take any actual war at all seriously. What happens if WOKE America is suddenly called upon to fight, die and spend their days working in factories doing actual production.
I'd say, that in the Pacific, the US would win a short naval war but would find it did not have the capacity to replace it's losses.
I don't know enough about China to know how deep the compliance of it's people would be. I hope we dont have to find out.
Thanks for the well-reasoned comment. I agree with what you're saying.
What does America have? We have the ability to feed and provide energy for ourselves. We have historic know-how as an industrial nation. We have millions of people who want to come in and work hard for relatively low wages. Is that enough to overcome our the divisions and distractions in the US? Beats me. As you said - hope we don't have to find out.
I'm aware of geography. Russia produces roughly 10 million barrels/day. China consumes over 14 million barrels/day. And that's just oil. Consider food and other critical inputs. Without sea transport for it's purchases and sales, China becomes an extremely difficult country to govern.
Analogy to the novel Dune. "He who can destroy a thing (spice), controls a thing." We can destroy most of China's trade. The only way they can reciprocate is through nukes, and if anyone goes nuclear, we all lose. And hopefully we all find a way to ratchet down the military posturing and learn to live with each other.
Destroying China's trade means destroying American imports. China and the US are like 2 drunk guys leaning against each other and holding each other up.
The difference is that China has the machine tools and knowhow to run them. They just need to find new customers. What does America have ?
Reserve currency status is a blessing but ultimately a curse. By it's nature, it leads to the movement of productive capacity off shore from the US. This limits US options as our domestic economy would contract a lot if it were cut off from our offshore supply chain.
Would it not then become a contest of social and economic attrition ? Which society is better equipped to compel the compliance of it's population ? America is already deeply divided and that is before most Americans take any actual war at all seriously. What happens if WOKE America is suddenly called upon to fight, die and spend their days working in factories doing actual production.
I'd say, that in the Pacific, the US would win a short naval war but would find it did not have the capacity to replace it's losses.
I don't know enough about China to know how deep the compliance of it's people would be. I hope we dont have to find out.
Thanks for the well-reasoned comment. I agree with what you're saying.
What does America have? We have the ability to feed and provide energy for ourselves. We have historic know-how as an industrial nation. We have millions of people who want to come in and work hard for relatively low wages. Is that enough to overcome our the divisions and distractions in the US? Beats me. As you said - hope we don't have to find out.