The Russo-Ukrainian conflict has demonstrated these past 2+ years that Industry, Manufacturing & the Physical Economy have always been relevant. It may sound like a truism, but after December 25, 1991, Many a so-called analyst argued that said Industrial Norms had outlived their usefulness.
What the SMO has decisively shown is that when one lives in said Fantasy & Delusion, you get outcomes like the DPRK producing more artillery shells than the combined EU.
What was that quote again? 'Play Stupid Games, Win Stupid Prizes!'
Would to God that you prove correct, but the West has already invested so many sunk costs, not just money and materiel but propaganda and diplomatic support that they cannot be seen to lose now.
We see this every single time when the West escalates. First they deny, as this would unduly provoke Russia. Then some clamor, and some American snaps his fingers, european knees hit the floor with a resounding thwack! and the latest red line is crossed. See, e.g., starting with weapons in general, then intelligence, ex-Soviet equipment, ex-Soviet aircraft, cluster munitions (but it's a war crime if Russia does it!), armored vehicles but not tanks, then tanks ("Release The Leopards!"), F-16, long-range missiles, etc..
The leak yesterday about British troops being already in Ukraine simply reflects what has long been an open secret. This will be used to pressure Scholz "See, the British are already there and WWIII hasn't broken out so get of the fence and send the army, already!"
We also hear of the Bundeswehr proposing to supply Taurus missiles to Ukraine, with sheep-dipped German crews, without bothering to tell the Chancellor or anything. Again, this is an effort to pressure Scholz, who offers a couple days of token resistance before he caves. Same thing, every time.
Of course, whenever you hear that something controversial is "under consideration", that means that the decision has been made. Any consideration, debate or ratification is just a stage-managed rubber-stamp.
A really great article, except for the fact that it ignores the role of the USA. In MSM, Ukraine is always given credit for making its own decisions, but since 2014 every decision in every department, particularly at the higher levels of civilian and military life, has been made by the Pentagon and the CIA. Ukraine exists only as an expendable appendage in a US-designed war to crush Russia. All of Ukraine's fanaticism and failures, including its incredible corruption, are the responsibility the USA.
Ukraine is already a demographic disaster and the mobilization proposal making its way through the approval process, if approved , will only make it much worse. Throwing newly mobilized civilians into battle with less than adequate training is effectively self-genocide.
Also, while describing the 3rd Assault Brigade as “elite” why no mention of them as Neo-Nazi as well?
The multiplication of calls, no matter how foolish or ridicule, for NATO to send its own troops to the front, is serious evidence of how critical the situation is for Ukraine. This reminds me of that moment when Russia decided it needed to stage a direct intervention in Syria: it demonstrated the dire situation the Syrian regime and its Iranian backers were in.
.
The difference is, that absolutely nothing allows to believe that NATO would have the means to reverse the situation, let alone the issue of starting a nuclear world war... Can EU leaders understand that their military power is meant for very short, very strong action to impose losses on a potential Russian assault that should deter Russia from even thinking about that assault? Can they accept that if they decide to enter an attrition war, they're bound to lose it?
.
I look back at the last 25 months of Western posturing and propaganda discourse, and I see the uncontrolled slide, from promises of Russian collapse to more promises of overwhelming means insuring Ukrainian victory, to new promises that this would never slide towards uncontrolled extension of war. And then every self-proclaimed "red line" had to be crossed, one after another, as reality bit Ukrainians again and again. Long-range weapons were given, tanks were given, modern A2A systems were given... all for no improvement of the strategic situation. The tangible effect is the continued bloodbath in which any possibly deserving Ukrainian Nation saw its future wagered, bankrupted, and finally erased through exodus, mass casualties, mass maiming, limitless accumulation of financial debt, and physical destruction. The second tangible effect, is that the "most powerful military alliance in history" and its 31 members (now 32, actually), saw continued attrition of its stocks and military potential, while not even being at war!
.
Can they stop this train wreck before Europe runs to its third collective suicide in a just more of a century? As a European, I am more and more convinced that while the vast majority of us sees how wrong, hopeless and unnecessary this is, and how it could simply be stopped if someone had the b*lls to stand up and call the end of the BS, our Potemkine democratic institutions are already so far gone into oligarchic degeneracy that we will not escape our fate.
An excellent analysis on the military position, though it pre-supposes that Ukraine (NATO) ever thought it could "win" a military victory against Russia. I think the original calculation was "probably not". However the impact of war, political unrest and the economic dislocation of sanctions would surely bring regime change in Russia? I'd say that was more likely the initial plan, with the added benefit to the USA of economic damage to its rival the EU.
Anyway it is easy to start a war and harder to stop one. We routinely read about Russia's "Full Scale Invasion" but this never occurred - what happened was a strong military demonstration against what was then superior numbers of UAF forces - but in an attempt to force the Ukraine regime to its senses. That nearly worked but the Ukraine and NATO started to believe their own propaganda and thought they could defeat Russia. Your article explains why they thought this.
Now bizzarely to me, most serious Western analysts do believe the narrative of huge Russian losses and the opposite for Ukraine. Well my judgement is the UAF have sufferred near terminal losses in combat troops (plenty of remfs left) and have few weapons and little ammo left. Morale is holding up but signs are there that it is beginning to crumble. Russia has superiority in numbers, training, leadership, weapons, firepower, air power, air defence, reserves, industry and allies with kit and factories. There is no way out for Ukraine. Western decision makers still appear delusional about all this but in my view NATO should now be in a damage limitation situation. Though doubling down seems to be the preference.
My overall prediction is that come the end of the spring Raputitsa in May we will start to see the UAF collapsing. We have now about 10 weeks where I expect to see pressure ratcheting up on the UAF, with Russia launching multiple operations across a wide front designed to attrit the UAF, use up its stocks of munitions and deplete reserves. Key ground will be taken in limited attacks. There will be continued long range strikes and my guess would be all those foreign "volunteers" will be a particular target.
NATO sabre rattling about boots on the ground may be just that. I hope so as WW3 beckons otherwise. But a Russian military victory (and I see that developing over the summer) will not of itself bring the war to an end. Ultimately we will have peace talks. Or radioactive rubble.
As I have been saying for well over a year now, Russia has functionally unlimited steel, fuel, grain, and men at the current use rate, and Ukraine does not. That is what matters the most. Russia's first limiting factor is public support, which seems fine.
Also people really are crazy set on this "human waves" idea. They will share a picture of a human wave and its literally 10 guys carefully moving one at a time!
I never got the deal with Zalhuzny generally, they love to make a huge deal of random hacks.
"All of this is inconsistent with the trope about Russian “human wave” assaults - which, we should note, have never been caught on camera".
Well, of course! Because the Kiev gang and their Western masters always play that trick of blaming their designated "adversaries" for what they themselves have been doing. The Russians have plenty of everything - including time and professional military expertise. It's the Ukrainians who suffer from divided commands, insane political goals, and an ultimate "high command" in Washington and London who would love to defeat Russia but, failing that, rub their hands and chortle over every Russian or Ukrainian who dies, and every Russian or Ukrainian town or piece of infrastructure that is flattened.
Syrskyi: Avdiivka has fallen. Russian troops are advancing from the east and south. They have taken Lastochkino. Now they are attacking Orlovka and Rabotino.
Zelensky: If the Americans send another $60 billion, everything will be alright. We will use it to retake Crimea and kill Putler.
Syrskyi: Mein Fuhrer... The Americans...
Umerov: The Americans are not laundering more cash. We are running out of men.
Ukraine vs Russia is similar to our USA vs CSA in logistics, armaments, and a Divided People.
With unreconcilable differences being provoked and prodded into open conflict.
The Slavic capacity for war is due in large part to it's Defensive nature from foreign invasions. Americans have not had to fight a Defensive War on it's homeland. Only the Southerners experienced the devastation of burned out cities and destroyed agricultural lands.
The point being We/Me/You have no concept of War in our neighborhoods, towns, or cities; .........
Other than the Crime Waves that will probably result from the millions of Illegal "Immigrants" or the recently introduced democRat Bolshevik terminolgy "Newcomers."
Understand that No USSA Grub-Mint entity either State or Feral is going to Stop this Invasion anytime soon....
The Russo-Ukrainian conflict has demonstrated these past 2+ years that Industry, Manufacturing & the Physical Economy have always been relevant. It may sound like a truism, but after December 25, 1991, Many a so-called analyst argued that said Industrial Norms had outlived their usefulness.
What the SMO has decisively shown is that when one lives in said Fantasy & Delusion, you get outcomes like the DPRK producing more artillery shells than the combined EU.
What was that quote again? 'Play Stupid Games, Win Stupid Prizes!'
Would to God that you prove correct, but the West has already invested so many sunk costs, not just money and materiel but propaganda and diplomatic support that they cannot be seen to lose now.
We see this every single time when the West escalates. First they deny, as this would unduly provoke Russia. Then some clamor, and some American snaps his fingers, european knees hit the floor with a resounding thwack! and the latest red line is crossed. See, e.g., starting with weapons in general, then intelligence, ex-Soviet equipment, ex-Soviet aircraft, cluster munitions (but it's a war crime if Russia does it!), armored vehicles but not tanks, then tanks ("Release The Leopards!"), F-16, long-range missiles, etc..
The leak yesterday about British troops being already in Ukraine simply reflects what has long been an open secret. This will be used to pressure Scholz "See, the British are already there and WWIII hasn't broken out so get of the fence and send the army, already!"
We also hear of the Bundeswehr proposing to supply Taurus missiles to Ukraine, with sheep-dipped German crews, without bothering to tell the Chancellor or anything. Again, this is an effort to pressure Scholz, who offers a couple days of token resistance before he caves. Same thing, every time.
Of course, whenever you hear that something controversial is "under consideration", that means that the decision has been made. Any consideration, debate or ratification is just a stage-managed rubber-stamp.
A really great article, except for the fact that it ignores the role of the USA. In MSM, Ukraine is always given credit for making its own decisions, but since 2014 every decision in every department, particularly at the higher levels of civilian and military life, has been made by the Pentagon and the CIA. Ukraine exists only as an expendable appendage in a US-designed war to crush Russia. All of Ukraine's fanaticism and failures, including its incredible corruption, are the responsibility the USA.
Phenomenal work Big Serge.
Ukraine is already a demographic disaster and the mobilization proposal making its way through the approval process, if approved , will only make it much worse. Throwing newly mobilized civilians into battle with less than adequate training is effectively self-genocide.
Also, while describing the 3rd Assault Brigade as “elite” why no mention of them as Neo-Nazi as well?
As usual: informed, accurate, and temperate. Serge does not do propaganda; for anyone. This is unheard of in The Empire and its Euro punks and whores.
Great article. Ukraine needs to break with Biden and negotiate a durable peace.
The multiplication of calls, no matter how foolish or ridicule, for NATO to send its own troops to the front, is serious evidence of how critical the situation is for Ukraine. This reminds me of that moment when Russia decided it needed to stage a direct intervention in Syria: it demonstrated the dire situation the Syrian regime and its Iranian backers were in.
.
The difference is, that absolutely nothing allows to believe that NATO would have the means to reverse the situation, let alone the issue of starting a nuclear world war... Can EU leaders understand that their military power is meant for very short, very strong action to impose losses on a potential Russian assault that should deter Russia from even thinking about that assault? Can they accept that if they decide to enter an attrition war, they're bound to lose it?
.
I look back at the last 25 months of Western posturing and propaganda discourse, and I see the uncontrolled slide, from promises of Russian collapse to more promises of overwhelming means insuring Ukrainian victory, to new promises that this would never slide towards uncontrolled extension of war. And then every self-proclaimed "red line" had to be crossed, one after another, as reality bit Ukrainians again and again. Long-range weapons were given, tanks were given, modern A2A systems were given... all for no improvement of the strategic situation. The tangible effect is the continued bloodbath in which any possibly deserving Ukrainian Nation saw its future wagered, bankrupted, and finally erased through exodus, mass casualties, mass maiming, limitless accumulation of financial debt, and physical destruction. The second tangible effect, is that the "most powerful military alliance in history" and its 31 members (now 32, actually), saw continued attrition of its stocks and military potential, while not even being at war!
.
Can they stop this train wreck before Europe runs to its third collective suicide in a just more of a century? As a European, I am more and more convinced that while the vast majority of us sees how wrong, hopeless and unnecessary this is, and how it could simply be stopped if someone had the b*lls to stand up and call the end of the BS, our Potemkine democratic institutions are already so far gone into oligarchic degeneracy that we will not escape our fate.
An excellent analysis on the military position, though it pre-supposes that Ukraine (NATO) ever thought it could "win" a military victory against Russia. I think the original calculation was "probably not". However the impact of war, political unrest and the economic dislocation of sanctions would surely bring regime change in Russia? I'd say that was more likely the initial plan, with the added benefit to the USA of economic damage to its rival the EU.
Anyway it is easy to start a war and harder to stop one. We routinely read about Russia's "Full Scale Invasion" but this never occurred - what happened was a strong military demonstration against what was then superior numbers of UAF forces - but in an attempt to force the Ukraine regime to its senses. That nearly worked but the Ukraine and NATO started to believe their own propaganda and thought they could defeat Russia. Your article explains why they thought this.
Now bizzarely to me, most serious Western analysts do believe the narrative of huge Russian losses and the opposite for Ukraine. Well my judgement is the UAF have sufferred near terminal losses in combat troops (plenty of remfs left) and have few weapons and little ammo left. Morale is holding up but signs are there that it is beginning to crumble. Russia has superiority in numbers, training, leadership, weapons, firepower, air power, air defence, reserves, industry and allies with kit and factories. There is no way out for Ukraine. Western decision makers still appear delusional about all this but in my view NATO should now be in a damage limitation situation. Though doubling down seems to be the preference.
My overall prediction is that come the end of the spring Raputitsa in May we will start to see the UAF collapsing. We have now about 10 weeks where I expect to see pressure ratcheting up on the UAF, with Russia launching multiple operations across a wide front designed to attrit the UAF, use up its stocks of munitions and deplete reserves. Key ground will be taken in limited attacks. There will be continued long range strikes and my guess would be all those foreign "volunteers" will be a particular target.
NATO sabre rattling about boots on the ground may be just that. I hope so as WW3 beckons otherwise. But a Russian military victory (and I see that developing over the summer) will not of itself bring the war to an end. Ultimately we will have peace talks. Or radioactive rubble.
I’m continuing to observe that this war is being used to reindustrialize and rearm America in particular and the West in general.
I think the war is folly.
I think reindustrializing America is good. This is a terrible way to go about it.
I think destroying the industrial base was evil and stupid, and destroying an armaments base unwise.
Eloquently written and flawlessly argued, Big Serge. Thank you for taking the time and effort to "zoom out" to the broader picture.
As Pushkin put it:
Then send your bellicose descendants,
Defamers, over to our place!
There’s room enough, in Russian grasslands,
Among deserving of them graves.
As I have been saying for well over a year now, Russia has functionally unlimited steel, fuel, grain, and men at the current use rate, and Ukraine does not. That is what matters the most. Russia's first limiting factor is public support, which seems fine.
Also people really are crazy set on this "human waves" idea. They will share a picture of a human wave and its literally 10 guys carefully moving one at a time!
I never got the deal with Zalhuzny generally, they love to make a huge deal of random hacks.
"All of this is inconsistent with the trope about Russian “human wave” assaults - which, we should note, have never been caught on camera".
Well, of course! Because the Kiev gang and their Western masters always play that trick of blaming their designated "adversaries" for what they themselves have been doing. The Russians have plenty of everything - including time and professional military expertise. It's the Ukrainians who suffer from divided commands, insane political goals, and an ultimate "high command" in Washington and London who would love to defeat Russia but, failing that, rub their hands and chortle over every Russian or Ukrainian who dies, and every Russian or Ukrainian town or piece of infrastructure that is flattened.
DOWNFALL: ZELENSKY in a Kiev Bunker
Syrskyi: Avdiivka has fallen. Russian troops are advancing from the east and south. They have taken Lastochkino. Now they are attacking Orlovka and Rabotino.
Zelensky: If the Americans send another $60 billion, everything will be alright. We will use it to retake Crimea and kill Putler.
Syrskyi: Mein Fuhrer... The Americans...
Umerov: The Americans are not laundering more cash. We are running out of men.
Ukraine vs Russia is similar to our USA vs CSA in logistics, armaments, and a Divided People.
With unreconcilable differences being provoked and prodded into open conflict.
The Slavic capacity for war is due in large part to it's Defensive nature from foreign invasions. Americans have not had to fight a Defensive War on it's homeland. Only the Southerners experienced the devastation of burned out cities and destroyed agricultural lands.
The point being We/Me/You have no concept of War in our neighborhoods, towns, or cities; .........
Other than the Crime Waves that will probably result from the millions of Illegal "Immigrants" or the recently introduced democRat Bolshevik terminolgy "Newcomers."
Understand that No USSA Grub-Mint entity either State or Feral is going to Stop this Invasion anytime soon....
Any Ideas, Comrades ???