Second thought I had on this excellent article; it took me ages to read (and I'm very busy) 99% of people WON'T read it to the end and will scan chunks. It's too long, needs savage editing, that's if Big Serge wants a BIG AUDIENCE! Less is more. The Left know this which is why all their output is short and punchy and wins elections.
And to all the Trump haters on here, do you really think you're smarter than Trump? He has saved the US from the Communist Democrats hell bent on mass immigration as a weapon of war for China, he's stopping the Queering of kids heads, another Chinese weapon of war and he's clamping down on insane payments to NGOs and other scum working to undermine the US and bankrupt the US, China's 3rd weapon of war. (Google Cloward-Piven strategy) And now he's quietly backing the only people on earth to stop Iran, the 2nd most extreme danger of anti-human nutcases close to getting nuclear weapons. Oh, and Trump is one of the richest Americans, what's in YOUR bank account?
Trump scammed the Iranians, using IAEI spies, and the fig leaf of a deal his saboteurs did to Iranian generals what they did to rusting bombers.
No one will talk to US and the EU is run by even less rational policy than US.
NY I rush who worked the docks were surveilled by the 1915 version of MI 6 thinking the U.S. branch of Irish resistance would harm US arms going to London.
100%. Have you bought your Trump Phone yet? I'm debating whether to order. At $499 and $47.95/month for unlimited voice, data, and texts - plus some kind of "telehealth" coverage - idk... it does have a gold case with the American flag in relief...
Maybe Trump should offer a deal where if he sells a million phones, he'll call off another Middle Eastern war to benefit Israel.
If only there was a way to short Trump's crypto coin... you at least wouldn't have to worry about the price of deworming pills.
I have to admit I got suckered on that. They went on sale at $45 around the time of his inauguration (and issued by his Commission to Re-Elect the President, or whatever his inauguration committee was called). I had never tried buying one of the meme coins before, and did it as a learning exercise. I lost a few bucks on one and sold. They're at $9 today.
I'm not an anti-Trumper... just kind of in the same mindset you are about him I think (e.g. the Trump "plan" of personal aggrandizement), and really disappointed that it looks like he's taking the U.S. into another Middle Eastern war. I thought I might have some stretch of my adult life where my country of birth wasn't fighting for Israel by murdering hapless brown people.
It's hard not to believe a common sense periodically coming from Trump's mouth. What is hard to believe is what's going on now. Basically, Trump Zelensky'd everybody - pulled 2019 election on the "peace" platform and screwed everybody up almost immediately. We are only 5 months into Trump reign, and we fight everybody and a kitchen sink
"we fight everybody and a kitchen sink" and somehow that's President Trump's fault!?
How about you start looking at the real warmongers.
NATO/ CIA/ UK/ EU/ UN/ WHO and all the other Deep State criminals.
I now know full well that the President has no real power, it's all in the hands of these monsters.
Anyone who dares to threaten their little "war-fest" is either bribed, compromised, suicided or assassinated.
Russia will win this NATO initiated, funded and controlled war because Putin is a true and patriotic leader and awake to the lying, corrupt NATO attempt to seize control of his country and bleed it dry.
The only proper reason for him to fight for power was to try to stop this shit. Not to threaten everybody into his "deals," like what he was offering to Russia made no sense, or shout on X to Iran "unconditional surrender," or publish the most ridiculous statements on X. Nobody pulls Trump's tongue to publish stupid things, threats, etc.
I have to admit that you're totally right about Trump. Under stress, his weakness, stupidity and propensity to being easily manipulated, show very clearly. His X posts are positively psycotic. I painfully recall why I didn't vote for him in 2016 and 2020.
Trump was always going to do what his principal sponsors ask, and Netanyahu is top-3 in that list, if not higher. So the whole "no more stupid wars" thing was a transparent fraud. Same for the populist aspects of trade and fiscal, where he once talked a good game. Mega corps are likewise top-3. Most voters in the US are just suckers, not sure how else to put it. As for ending Ukraine war, that was just the flip side of "get Russia and China to not defend Iran" - which remains a wildcard because he's such a shit negotiator
This a comment that I should have inserted in my first post - and applies to what Big Serge was saying in his article about both the WWI and Russo-Ukranian negotiations.
Von Clausewitz wrote some 200 years ago that "War takes on a logic all of its own". In this the antagonists in a war lose all sense of why they originally go to war and it escalates into the utter destruction of the enemy above all else. The way to overcome this is to maintain the focus on the reasons why they went to war, ignoring distractions, emotion and the need for revenge. In the Military this is a principal of war called 'Maintenace of the Aim'. Where people let war overtake and come to dominate that logic - as in the West and the Ukranians are showing - then that side is doomed to defeat. Whereas the Russians have maintrained the aim and are executing their plan (operations and tactics) in the furtherance of it. The side that maintains the aim is the side who will win no matter how flash the operations on the other side.
One issue relatively neglected by commentators is the effect of a Russian military victory in a city: its destruction. One of the reasons for Ukraine defending until the bitter end even if defeat has appeared inevitable for some time is that this is their version of a scorched earth policy. They say, “if we are going to lose this city , then the Russians will acquire a destroyed city.” As the larger cities (Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kharkhov) are approached, this presents the Russians with a problem. They don’t want to destroy these cities, but the Ukrainians won't surrender them undamaged. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
The answer to that will probably be sieges, where possible. The double envelopment gives them an opportunity to starve and pick apart, or force the surrender of some forces, at lowered costs of Russian lives. It's not going to be clean, but maybe they get a 2/3rds destroyed city.
So far when RF has made an effort to spare something from a battle, as soon as it's liberated the Ukrainians shoot it up just the same. Buildings can be rebuilt easier than people.
Allow an old cold warrior with too much time in SAC bomber logistics to explain why those aircraft were out in the open. Losing 10% is likely no big deal.
New START replaced START I know a bit about reducing number of nuclear capable B-52, eliminating uneconomical FB 111, etc. Getting down to numbers included cutting wings off a lot of perfectly good aircraft! The remaining are to be open to satellite reconnaissance. New START is good to Feb 2026. It will not be renewed.
About the TU 95. Unless they are declared nuclear assets and are located with special weapons storage, and have force generation support, they are not part of a “strategic contingency force”.
Damage to AEW aircraft may be a big deal, but not to the Kievan tiff.
All this said the Spider Web operation as well as the abortive Tehran decapitation could not be done w/o US tech support for nav, comms and command, as well as direct CIA, Mossad, and MI 6 involvement.
It seems like you might have the background for an OT question. Trump went into a 13:00 EST meeting today with his staff, and reports are that it is about joining the Israeli war on Iran with the MOAB "bunker-buster" bombs, presumably to be launched from B-2 bombers leaving from Diego Garcia.
My question is - don't those planes have to be pretty much over or close to the nuclear facilities in QOM to hit them them with the MOAB bombs? They look like nearly-conventional gravity bombs with no internal propulsion system, though I saw some references that they have GPS for targeting.
If that's the case - Iran likely has Russian Su-35s in their inventory. Iran likely still has some of its lower frequency long-range radar arrays still operational - and the B-2s will light up on those (but have low positional accuracy). American pilots being shot down and held captive on Iranian territory will be a disaster for Trump, and there is some risk of it happening I would think.
Maybe they will try to protect the bombers with F-16s and F-35s of the Isreali Air Force?
I think they are usually dropped by C-130 Hercules at high altitude and have a 3 mile range. Guided by GPS. So not sure why Israel couldn't drop it with one of their C-130s (I'm thinking they have C-130s but not sure). Maybe they would want the "stealthyness" of the B2 bomber?
This is the most unbiased source on the Russia Ukraine war. Thank you, Big Serge. Unfortunate. no peace negotiations will succeed until Russia's security concerns are addressed. So far, no one in the West seems to understand this. The Russian stop line will probably be the Dnieper River. That would give them the four oblasts they've already annexed and a buffer zone.
I have incredible respect for your writing and analysis. I was born during WW II in occupied territory (the Netherlands) and have not read any as good as you.
The analogy is tempting, but it misses the mark, widely.
Jacques Baud might of interest to you with your scholarly bent. So are Putin's statement of objectives at the beginning of the SMO, not called a war for a reason. If it was a war, there might be no Kiev left.
The US has no role in peace negotiations other than as instigator of this proxy war against, with NATO in tow. The Russians want demilitarization, denazification and no terrorism after all is done. They also want a security structure that will stay around, NATO not being it.
There is plenty for you to read, no point in me rehashing it here.
1. "More importantly, it is as true now as it was in 1917 that it is damnably difficult to convince warring states to stand down when their blood is up, and to walk away from the sunk cost of so much bloodshed. The motif of blame has even made its return, with many European parties writing off the idea of concessions to Russia simply on the basis that Moscow is the guilty party in this war."
Keep in mind that europe has paid no price. Sure, their economies are in shambles, but who cares? The peons may freeze or starve, but the rulers still are doing just fine. Sure, european subservience to America is greater than it ever was, but who cares? Europeans like being slaves and have this psychological need to be submissive. So unlike cats!
2. If Trump wanted to end the War On Russia, all he need to is loudly and publicly notify the european poodles that if they persist in provoking Russia, the United States will not come to their aid, even if missiles hit them.
Watch european tails tuck between european legs.
3. Like Wilson, Trump will get dragged into this war sooner or later, possibly as the price for european support for his War On Iran.
The european strategy ever always only was, once they ran low on Ukrainians to soak up Russian munitions, the the europeans would get stuck in, and finally, the United States would ride to the rescue rather than leave their catamites hanging out to dry.
There never was any other realistic plan, regardless what the catamites say in public. This plan is progressing as well as can be expected.
It is not just Russia that is "vulnerable to asymmetric losses of this sort," but Europe and the US as well. If sabotage and terror will be the new normal, they will be the new normal everywhere.
This is a good read. For the Americans on this thread - unfortunately Trump was able to say the right things, things many Americans were thinking, but once in power predictably he disappoints and will continue to disappoint. Most observers on the Russo-Ukranian War knew that he had 'no cards' to use one of his own phrases (I think he knew that) and Big Serge is correct that his negotiation attempt was performance theatre. Once preformed he can then move on.
Now he has other issues of importance as it looks as if the 'No War President' is about to get involved in a new war in the Middle East. One that he has easily been manipulated into by the Israelis and the Hobbsian Liberals in Washington. He will find that it is very easy to get into a war but it is very hard to get out.
I admit that one reason I voted for Trump was I thought we could avoid a big war. That said, by far the biggest reason I voted for him was I felt Harris would have wrecked our economy and involved us in WWIII with either Russia or China or both. With Trump we still have a chance to avoid WWIII.
I predicted that Trump would win last year - not because I support him but because of the sentiment in the US Electorate against the establishment that was doing little for the common man. Trump restyled himself as the anti-establishment candidate, despite the evidence of his first administration, and we have what we have.
Still, if Harris had won the US would still be supporting Ukraine - and perhaps also be in the Iran/Israeli (perhaps US) War at the same time.
I agree, Harris would "still be supporting Ukraine". And IRL, we are still sending munitions + money + spooks & special forces to Ukraine, providing their satellite reconnaissance for attacks deep into Russian Federation and battlefield Starlink communications. This looks like support to me? Just with fewer rainbow flags & sparkly joyous & diverse unicorns in the related PR.
The attack on Iran required US satellite reconnaissance, US munitions and US tacit agreement, if not direct assistance in planning and implementation.
As several US comedians have said over at least the last 3 decades: If voting mattered, it would be illegal. So far, voting is still done, it is just front fun by oligarchs and insiders pre selecting those candidates who will do what is required, regardless of the mouth noises they had to make while campaigning. Enough people have noticed this that Trump or Biden were elected with about 30% of the votes of the total technically eligible US pool of voters.
We are about at the end of this dog and pony show, what comes next.
Same here - didn't vote in 2016, voted against Trump in 2020, voted for Trump in 2024, with Kamala looming he seemed a better choice out of the crappy choices.
Anyone voting for Biden in 2020 must have mental or reasoning issues. Casting a vote for a demented loser, hiding in a basement with a face mask on continually, claiming that the flu was the end of the world…
There were other people to vote in addition to Trump and Biden. And anybody who "shames" anybody on their voting choices, knows nothing about democracy.
Trump say/did so much nonsense by 2020, everybody had enough. "See what he does, not what he says" - what exactly did he do, except for spitting nonsense his first term around, like twitting that French Firefighters need to dump water from helicopter on Notre-Dame, when the weight of water will damage its structures in addition to fire. That's Trump's issue - he never knows when to shut up. How an old saying goes, "silence is fool's shield, fool is clever as long as he is silent." I voted for Trump because there was nobody else to vote, the rest was even worse/irrelevant.
You cast shame only on yourself when you seek to insult people who made different voting decisions from you. If everyone was in total agreement all the time we would not need elections, or even debates.
The shame is on whomever intentionally destroys their country with a decision to vote for insane policies, vaccine & masks mandates, trans ideology, abortion till the day of birth, unlimited illegal immigration & massive unfunded public government funding.
My home country, France, has lived a gradual descent into misery from those exact same people who express their democratic vote for evil socialists, importing millions of Africans while taxing everyone to death.
I would feel shame if I were responsible for replacing Easter with "trans visibility day", men competing against girls in sports, abortion on 8 month old fœtus and 10% inflation per year.
I don't understand why, after overwhelming evidence, Americans and Brits still talk as if personalities and political parties are in charge. They don't exist except as marketing. The same applies to democracy.
I don't like how Trump has performed so far either but I also believe Kamala would have been worse. She's a puppet through and through and with Trump you kind of know what you get (although that's somewhat questionable now, as well). The cynical part of me thinks, at least I get the better memes with Trump... In the end, I feel sorry for the American voters. I bet none of them wanted this. But that's what you get sometimes. In Germany we would call the last election the choice between the plague and cholera... two bad choices.
LOL, we had a similar choice in Canada, I think we voted for the plague, but maybe it was cholera? To be fair, both Germany and Canada did have other parties and leaders, but none who were deemed "electable". I decided I preferred to vote for influenza, even tho' I knew it could not win. :-D
The oil lobby is behind Trump. He is unable to push through a reduction in the key interest rate and raise the price of oil due to inflation, so he decided to lead the war in the Middle East. The attack on Iran and the subsequent responses of this country (closure of the straits) will raise the price of oil.
Agree with most of this with the important American caveats on Wilson and Trump.
Wilson is difficult to see from 108 years later and across the world, but he wanted desperately to stay out of the war, but was pushed into it by American Anglophiles and German Miscalculation of unrestricted submarine warfare. He wept at the desk the night war was declared, a defeated man of peace. Wilson was no Anglophile.
He was trapped.
Trump’s focus is the United States, Ukraine is a trap set for him by Obama- Biden - Clinton and he has no intention of falling into it, nor is this likely, it’s very remote.
He certainly does want to dump Zelensky, it can’t be more obvious.
As Zelensky can’t live and accept the Olive Branch, and Zelensky wants to live and escape to Paris or London to his awaiting estates, the war will have to be tragically fought to the finish.
Trump will not accept the trap, Europe cannot, Zelensky wishes to live.
Tragic.
But Trump is no Wilson.
His International focus beyond building our American economy is if anything on closing down the Iran account, which is happening. At most if Iran completely refuses the deeply dug in uranium enrichment centrifuges and stocks will be bombed with GBU-30 penetrators , which are in Europe now.
Iran has lost and is negotiating their price.
Trump wants to rebuild America, he is not a man of war, he is a builder.
Usually I find you to be a fairly astute observer and analyst of USA actions and politics. In this case, I think you have missed the mark so completely that there is not even any point in going looking in the brush for the arrow. By which I mean I doubt anything I could say to you, or people who think like you, would make any difference, and there are so many things to say to refute your conclusions that I don't have the energy to start. I suppose that time will tell whether Trump is a builder, or war-monger, or simply a stooge. Time will tell whether USA actually has bombs that will destroy Iran's underground facilities, and whether Trump will try to use them. I do not think anyone can accurately predict that any of Iran or Israel or USA has won or lost.
Unfortunately the world’s governments do not reflect said wishes .
Let me be clear; I having seen the world cannot be more hostile to you, or immune to your pleas of innocence, or contemptuous of your purported grievances.
We are just guilty of making the same mistakes and committing the same deeds all of you did, and will return to refreshed and with renewed vigor the instant you’re not constrained.
The point of America since the American Indians* came across the Bering Strait is to escape your infinite gyrations and follies. I would not leave apologetically but with infinite animus, end all trade and diplomatic relations, all contact would be as if a foreign virus being handled in a secure level IV facility.
No trade outside the western hemisphere, no migration , no relationship.
We are in truth anathema and antimatter to each other. One would have to be a traveled American of a certain type - soldier in my case - to understand why, although most Americans understand this about ourselves.
We cannot mix, and if any nation understood our present mindset you couldn’t get away from us fast enough. We are cleaning house here, don’t let this happen to you.
So as we say , you can kill each other in peace.
For my own countrymen reading; choose us or flee. As you already sense.
So don’t misunderstand my isolationism as peaceful. I’m genocidal, and germicidal, and if you’re not American… but just want America.
“The essential American is hard, isolates himself, flinches at dirt, is merciless.” - DH Lawrence 120 years ago-
2025; The American character is now one of innocence gone, mercilessness is embraced with full open eyes, fuck virtue, and we who come now don’t flinch at dirt. As it happens we just want America.
I am not friendly to the other, I am implacably hostile to the other .
God Bless America, now run for your lives.
===========
*The Indians we simply monopolized what they did is all, and usually joined the firm. No one ever really discriminated against skin but intellectuals and Democrats.
It’s a long, but excellent article. If your attention span was too short to get through the whole thing, you may have missed this part:
“Commentators in the west rarely try to view the conflict from Russia’s perspective, but if they could they would quickly see why Russian confidence remains high. As Russia sees it, they have absorbed and defeated Ukraine’s two best punches on the ground (the 2023 counteroffensive and the Kursk operation), and they have weathered a long and steady infusion of western combat power without the trajectory of either the ground campaign or the strike war fundamentally shifting. Meanwhile, Russia has essentially scratched off the entire southern Donbas, pushing the front across the border into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and they are poised to wrap up the central sector of front as the advance around Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka blooms.
We’re left, then, with a jarring disconnect. On the one hand, the Trump Administration approached Ukraine as if their election fundamentally changed everything and instantly raised the probability of a negotiated peace. Russia, however, rather rightly feels that nothing has changed at all. They have absorbed everything the west has thrown into the conflict, and they continue to both advance on the ground and relentlessly strike Ukraine on a material basis that they clearly view as sustainable, without unduly burdening civilian life in Russia.”
The war is a real time illustration of Brenton’s summary of Von Clausewitz “maintenance of aim”. Russia follows this principle, Ukraine does not and seemingly cannot. The result is inevitable, only the timing is in doubt. However, “things collapse slowly, then all at once” as the saying goes.
I'll skip over the premise that Ukraine started this war deliberately, that the goal was to take back initially LPR/DPR militarily. Mot peple made their mind up about that long ago. The CIA forecasts of a Russia invasion were really just a forecast of the necessary False Flag to justify the attack on Donbas. Note that when the SMO happened Kiev (and Western media) was caught entirely unprepared and lined up on the internal LPR/DPR borders, not the external borders with Russia or Belarus. And note the irony of a False Flag pre-empted by a real one.
So If the war was supposed to be on Donbas what was the theory of victory for Kiev, its military, and more importantly the US and European powers that were backing it? How could Ukraine defeat the rebels + Russia in an attack on Donbas?
6 years of building concrete bunkers from which to shell Donbas, planned with the assistance of Nato. This would give Ukraine the ability to destroy Donbas and at a minimum force upon LPR/DPR the removal of civilians to Russia. Azov based in Mariuopol was a similar threat. The removal of civilians alone would be a Ukrainian victory big enough for Biden to spin.
Without this willingness to target civilians, how else could Kiev or its US bosses convince Washington and Brussels that there was a sensible plan to defeat Russia militarily using Ukrainian troops?
This theory of a theory explains a great deal. The challenge for Russia was how to protect Donbas from attacks, and that meant getting Artillery in between the cities and the Urainian artillery with out it being shelled to pieces as it arrived (as Kiev would have prepared for). Only a great maskerada (distraction) would do. Special forces fighting at Hostomol airport, west of Kiev, was typical. After all what is 120k troops spread across half of Ukraine and beyond doing if not Maskerada. They certainly weren't trying to take Kharkov, let alone Kiev.
It explains how Russia could just turn up and defeat an artillery that had been digging itself in for 6 year. And how Azov got cut off. And why Zelensky was willing to sign up to a deal in April 2022. It wasn't that he was convinced by the maskerada - that was already quite clear. It was that he new that Theory 1 of victory had already failed. If he couldn't just slaugher Donbas residents, it would have to be a proper war.
And of course what took Russia so long to advance over the last 2 years - all those dug in shelling positions which held Russia up until they were finally all breached.
This work is distinctly subpar compared to your extant body of publications.
Let's start with the initial analysis of "Spider's Web"
1) Your assertions of damage done are clearly based on Western analysis, with no reference whatsoever made to the possibility of "destroyed planes" being inoperative planes parked on runways simply for storage and access. Nor do you reference "damaged" vs. "destroyed"; the notion that 1 or even a dozen small drones can destroy these gigantic objects requires hitting critical unreplaceable systems - not merely blowing up structure.
2) You also make no reference to START - where Flynn, MacGregor and others have noted that the terms of the START treaty REQUIRE strategic bombers to be in view.
3) You then conclude with a dismissal of the massive intelligence effort - one which likely compromised huge swathes of Ukraine (and likely Western) intelligence assets to execute.
4) There is also the question of Western assistance - either direct or indirect - noted above. Does Ukraine have the overhead surveillance to tell when bombers are parked in any particular base? Because it is well documented that they move around regularly. What about communications linking drone operators in Ukraine (or elsewhere...) to the drones in question. The assertion that Russian mobile comms were used is rather weak; anyone who uses video comms on a cell phone anywhere in the world can attest to the fundamentally low bandwidth and reliability of such systems anywhere but in the most core i.e. urban settings - which said air bases most certainly are not.
Now let's move on to the discussion of Woodrow Wilson and Trump.
a) Trump is not Woodrow Wilson, unless you believe Woodrow Wilson was massively arming one side of World War 1 prior to the US formal entry. Some help was certainly given - the scale of assistance, as in visible fractions of US/European inventory of weapons and ammunition, certainly was not the same for Wilson as for the United States both prior to Trump and even during Trump's 2nd term to date.
b) And since Trump is not Woodrow Wilson given the direct US hand in arming, giving cash, giving intelligence assistance, etc etc - Trump could never have been a true mediator.
c) No mention made either of the effects of the economic war on the world: higher food prices everywhere; massive disruptions in the European economies as they deindustrialize faster; disruptions hence costs in the LNG space, loss of not just markets but of invested technology and infrastructure in Russia for the West; the crippling, if not fatal, blow to the idea of Western rule of law ranging from Nord Stream sabotage (and subsequent whitewashing) to theft of Russian Central Bank funds to seizure of all manner of private Russian assets to literal nation-state targeting of economic sanctions on private individuals - all this as the Russian economy has outperformed the West for 2 years straight with no end to this streak in sight.
d) The destruction of much of Western military reputation: from its 1990s era equipment to its Desert Storm methodologies to Western "initiative" and "innovation" to the irrefutable exposure of the parlous state of Western military industry and its incapability to even match a fraction of Russia's non-fully mobilized production capabilities - even with budgets literally tens of multiples greater.
The pending defeat of Ukraine is not merely a defeat of Ukraine - it is no less than a significant short and medium strategic as well as tactical military defeat of the West.
Yeah, Big Serge, why didn't you include every possible aspect about these issues? We all want extra, super long articles so that we can read what other analysts have already observed. God forbid that you give us your own analytical observations and insight in a straightforward cogent manner.
Thanks very much, from another old US Cold Warrior, for this well-written and dispassionate analysis. I started following the Ukraine war pretty closely at the outset in 2014, because the Maydan aftermath made it clear that magical thinking was the main influence on US policy, and might well lead us into WW3.
I discovered your Substack pretty early in the SMO. I recently went back through your archive to 2022 and began reading forward through all your Ukraine war updates. I think future historians may find that a valuable exercise as well.
Thank you for a quality report devoid of any propaganda. A good read.
Second thought I had on this excellent article; it took me ages to read (and I'm very busy) 99% of people WON'T read it to the end and will scan chunks. It's too long, needs savage editing, that's if Big Serge wants a BIG AUDIENCE! Less is more. The Left know this which is why all their output is short and punchy and wins elections.
And to all the Trump haters on here, do you really think you're smarter than Trump? He has saved the US from the Communist Democrats hell bent on mass immigration as a weapon of war for China, he's stopping the Queering of kids heads, another Chinese weapon of war and he's clamping down on insane payments to NGOs and other scum working to undermine the US and bankrupt the US, China's 3rd weapon of war. (Google Cloward-Piven strategy) And now he's quietly backing the only people on earth to stop Iran, the 2nd most extreme danger of anti-human nutcases close to getting nuclear weapons. Oh, and Trump is one of the richest Americans, what's in YOUR bank account?
Good heavens, the Democrats are "left" and "communists"?
There's a hole in the bucket dear Liza, dear Liza, there's a hole in the bucket dear Liza, a hole.
It's pretty funny isn't it. For Americans, Democrats would be considered a far right party in Europe.
Good post Mrs. Bucket...
To navigate your ship from point A to point B, you need an up-to-date chart. Using an old chart makes it more likely you will run aground or worse.
Reading the comments here, I see a lot of people navigating not only with an old chart but also without a compass, depth finder and rudder.
And they wonder why they're poor.
Trump lied, he scammed me on ending Kiev’s war.
Trump scammed the Iranians, using IAEI spies, and the fig leaf of a deal his saboteurs did to Iranian generals what they did to rusting bombers.
No one will talk to US and the EU is run by even less rational policy than US.
NY I rush who worked the docks were surveilled by the 1915 version of MI 6 thinking the U.S. branch of Irish resistance would harm US arms going to London.
US was on the Brit side outside a few Irish .
I doubt that Trump exactly "scammed" anyone. Rather, he is weak, stupid and easily manipulated.
He conned me.
Yes, he is a deep state puppet.
I know now he is Bibi’ president.
I know that people believed Trump, there are still people who think that Trump has a plan.
I am saying that there never was a plan other than personal aggrandizement.
100%. Have you bought your Trump Phone yet? I'm debating whether to order. At $499 and $47.95/month for unlimited voice, data, and texts - plus some kind of "telehealth" coverage - idk... it does have a gold case with the American flag in relief...
Maybe Trump should offer a deal where if he sells a million phones, he'll call off another Middle Eastern war to benefit Israel.
Does it come with the remote detonation feature?
I hate going to the vet.
If only there was a way to short Trump's crypto coin... you at least wouldn't have to worry about the price of deworming pills.
I have to admit I got suckered on that. They went on sale at $45 around the time of his inauguration (and issued by his Commission to Re-Elect the President, or whatever his inauguration committee was called). I had never tried buying one of the meme coins before, and did it as a learning exercise. I lost a few bucks on one and sold. They're at $9 today.
I'm not an anti-Trumper... just kind of in the same mindset you are about him I think (e.g. the Trump "plan" of personal aggrandizement), and really disappointed that it looks like he's taking the U.S. into another Middle Eastern war. I thought I might have some stretch of my adult life where my country of birth wasn't fighting for Israel by murdering hapless brown people.
It's hard not to believe a common sense periodically coming from Trump's mouth. What is hard to believe is what's going on now. Basically, Trump Zelensky'd everybody - pulled 2019 election on the "peace" platform and screwed everybody up almost immediately. We are only 5 months into Trump reign, and we fight everybody and a kitchen sink
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQMfglDUKwU
Berletic's continuity thesis vindicated.
"we fight everybody and a kitchen sink" and somehow that's President Trump's fault!?
How about you start looking at the real warmongers.
NATO/ CIA/ UK/ EU/ UN/ WHO and all the other Deep State criminals.
I now know full well that the President has no real power, it's all in the hands of these monsters.
Anyone who dares to threaten their little "war-fest" is either bribed, compromised, suicided or assassinated.
Russia will win this NATO initiated, funded and controlled war because Putin is a true and patriotic leader and awake to the lying, corrupt NATO attempt to seize control of his country and bleed it dry.
The only proper reason for him to fight for power was to try to stop this shit. Not to threaten everybody into his "deals," like what he was offering to Russia made no sense, or shout on X to Iran "unconditional surrender," or publish the most ridiculous statements on X. Nobody pulls Trump's tongue to publish stupid things, threats, etc.
I have to admit that you're totally right about Trump. Under stress, his weakness, stupidity and propensity to being easily manipulated, show very clearly. His X posts are positively psycotic. I painfully recall why I didn't vote for him in 2016 and 2020.
I wish I were wrong.
Trump was always going to do what his principal sponsors ask, and Netanyahu is top-3 in that list, if not higher. So the whole "no more stupid wars" thing was a transparent fraud. Same for the populist aspects of trade and fiscal, where he once talked a good game. Mega corps are likewise top-3. Most voters in the US are just suckers, not sure how else to put it. As for ending Ukraine war, that was just the flip side of "get Russia and China to not defend Iran" - which remains a wildcard because he's such a shit negotiator
The zionazis are a proxy, not a lobby. Until American Caesar gets kicked out of the middle east, they are the vanguard of the US empire.
AIPAC is just a hobby, right?
I should have added - don't be too hard on yourself - at least you are starting to get wise.
Too many humans insist on doubling down like Kool Aid guzzling cult members.
I'm not hard/easy on myself, I'm simply a realist. I won't be putting lipstick on a pig even if it's my pig:-)
Well you’re fucking retarded. Sorry dude. Shut the fuck up and think about why you were so mislead instead of complaining about it.
Ahhh. Paddy.
Edday! I hope no hard feelings. Ripping off some strong words to someone who doesn’t care about my views feels like spitting into the ocean.
I should’ve just said “I would like to register my opposition to this view” but that’s more rote and less interesting
No hard feelings: anger is a "poison we give ourselves".
Actually I was more opposed to Harris, HRC and Biden before.
It is that all this is what I saw Harris would do.
Proly won't vote next time.
What would I be if I got angry every time someone told me to GFY?
Cheers
And still 100 times better than Biden or Kamala
That our choice was Donald or Kamala demonstrates the decay of our politics. Donald Trump is worth two cents, Kamala, a penny.
This a comment that I should have inserted in my first post - and applies to what Big Serge was saying in his article about both the WWI and Russo-Ukranian negotiations.
Von Clausewitz wrote some 200 years ago that "War takes on a logic all of its own". In this the antagonists in a war lose all sense of why they originally go to war and it escalates into the utter destruction of the enemy above all else. The way to overcome this is to maintain the focus on the reasons why they went to war, ignoring distractions, emotion and the need for revenge. In the Military this is a principal of war called 'Maintenace of the Aim'. Where people let war overtake and come to dominate that logic - as in the West and the Ukranians are showing - then that side is doomed to defeat. Whereas the Russians have maintrained the aim and are executing their plan (operations and tactics) in the furtherance of it. The side that maintains the aim is the side who will win no matter how flash the operations on the other side.
Excellent summary as usual.
One issue relatively neglected by commentators is the effect of a Russian military victory in a city: its destruction. One of the reasons for Ukraine defending until the bitter end even if defeat has appeared inevitable for some time is that this is their version of a scorched earth policy. They say, “if we are going to lose this city , then the Russians will acquire a destroyed city.” As the larger cities (Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kharkhov) are approached, this presents the Russians with a problem. They don’t want to destroy these cities, but the Ukrainians won't surrender them undamaged. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
The answer to that will probably be sieges, where possible. The double envelopment gives them an opportunity to starve and pick apart, or force the surrender of some forces, at lowered costs of Russian lives. It's not going to be clean, but maybe they get a 2/3rds destroyed city.
Pokrovsk.
All that embodied energy destroyed. Basic instinct to the bitter end.
So far when RF has made an effort to spare something from a battle, as soon as it's liberated the Ukrainians shoot it up just the same. Buildings can be rebuilt easier than people.
Big Serge, outstanding read!
Allow an old cold warrior with too much time in SAC bomber logistics to explain why those aircraft were out in the open. Losing 10% is likely no big deal.
New START replaced START I know a bit about reducing number of nuclear capable B-52, eliminating uneconomical FB 111, etc. Getting down to numbers included cutting wings off a lot of perfectly good aircraft! The remaining are to be open to satellite reconnaissance. New START is good to Feb 2026. It will not be renewed.
About the TU 95. Unless they are declared nuclear assets and are located with special weapons storage, and have force generation support, they are not part of a “strategic contingency force”.
Damage to AEW aircraft may be a big deal, but not to the Kievan tiff.
All this said the Spider Web operation as well as the abortive Tehran decapitation could not be done w/o US tech support for nav, comms and command, as well as direct CIA, Mossad, and MI 6 involvement.
No one in the non west will take US for granted….
It's an amazing time...The comments may include veterans of the US SAC bomber, but also veterans of Russian radio intelligence.:)
It seems like you might have the background for an OT question. Trump went into a 13:00 EST meeting today with his staff, and reports are that it is about joining the Israeli war on Iran with the MOAB "bunker-buster" bombs, presumably to be launched from B-2 bombers leaving from Diego Garcia.
My question is - don't those planes have to be pretty much over or close to the nuclear facilities in QOM to hit them them with the MOAB bombs? They look like nearly-conventional gravity bombs with no internal propulsion system, though I saw some references that they have GPS for targeting.
If that's the case - Iran likely has Russian Su-35s in their inventory. Iran likely still has some of its lower frequency long-range radar arrays still operational - and the B-2s will light up on those (but have low positional accuracy). American pilots being shot down and held captive on Iranian territory will be a disaster for Trump, and there is some risk of it happening I would think.
Maybe they will try to protect the bombers with F-16s and F-35s of the Isreali Air Force?
I think they are usually dropped by C-130 Hercules at high altitude and have a 3 mile range. Guided by GPS. So not sure why Israel couldn't drop it with one of their C-130s (I'm thinking they have C-130s but not sure). Maybe they would want the "stealthyness" of the B2 bomber?
I would guess the C-130s could be shot down pretty easily.
I just learned it isn't the MBU - 43 MOAB that will be used.
It is the MBU-57 MOP bomb.
GBU-57A/B Massive Ordinance Penetrator.
It can only be dropped by B2 bombers. Also by B-21 Raider when they get them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-57A/B_MOP
This is the most unbiased source on the Russia Ukraine war. Thank you, Big Serge. Unfortunate. no peace negotiations will succeed until Russia's security concerns are addressed. So far, no one in the West seems to understand this. The Russian stop line will probably be the Dnieper River. That would give them the four oblasts they've already annexed and a buffer zone.
I have incredible respect for your writing and analysis. I was born during WW II in occupied territory (the Netherlands) and have not read any as good as you.
The analogy is tempting, but it misses the mark, widely.
Jacques Baud might of interest to you with your scholarly bent. So are Putin's statement of objectives at the beginning of the SMO, not called a war for a reason. If it was a war, there might be no Kiev left.
The US has no role in peace negotiations other than as instigator of this proxy war against, with NATO in tow. The Russians want demilitarization, denazification and no terrorism after all is done. They also want a security structure that will stay around, NATO not being it.
There is plenty for you to read, no point in me rehashing it here.
1. "More importantly, it is as true now as it was in 1917 that it is damnably difficult to convince warring states to stand down when their blood is up, and to walk away from the sunk cost of so much bloodshed. The motif of blame has even made its return, with many European parties writing off the idea of concessions to Russia simply on the basis that Moscow is the guilty party in this war."
Keep in mind that europe has paid no price. Sure, their economies are in shambles, but who cares? The peons may freeze or starve, but the rulers still are doing just fine. Sure, european subservience to America is greater than it ever was, but who cares? Europeans like being slaves and have this psychological need to be submissive. So unlike cats!
2. If Trump wanted to end the War On Russia, all he need to is loudly and publicly notify the european poodles that if they persist in provoking Russia, the United States will not come to their aid, even if missiles hit them.
Watch european tails tuck between european legs.
3. Like Wilson, Trump will get dragged into this war sooner or later, possibly as the price for european support for his War On Iran.
The european strategy ever always only was, once they ran low on Ukrainians to soak up Russian munitions, the the europeans would get stuck in, and finally, the United States would ride to the rescue rather than leave their catamites hanging out to dry.
There never was any other realistic plan, regardless what the catamites say in public. This plan is progressing as well as can be expected.
It is not just Russia that is "vulnerable to asymmetric losses of this sort," but Europe and the US as well. If sabotage and terror will be the new normal, they will be the new normal everywhere.
The Ukrainian attack opened Pandora's box. Given the simplicity of small drones and the prevalence of Starlink, such attacks can become widespread.
This is a good read. For the Americans on this thread - unfortunately Trump was able to say the right things, things many Americans were thinking, but once in power predictably he disappoints and will continue to disappoint. Most observers on the Russo-Ukranian War knew that he had 'no cards' to use one of his own phrases (I think he knew that) and Big Serge is correct that his negotiation attempt was performance theatre. Once preformed he can then move on.
Now he has other issues of importance as it looks as if the 'No War President' is about to get involved in a new war in the Middle East. One that he has easily been manipulated into by the Israelis and the Hobbsian Liberals in Washington. He will find that it is very easy to get into a war but it is very hard to get out.
I admit that one reason I voted for Trump was I thought we could avoid a big war. That said, by far the biggest reason I voted for him was I felt Harris would have wrecked our economy and involved us in WWIII with either Russia or China or both. With Trump we still have a chance to avoid WWIII.
I predicted that Trump would win last year - not because I support him but because of the sentiment in the US Electorate against the establishment that was doing little for the common man. Trump restyled himself as the anti-establishment candidate, despite the evidence of his first administration, and we have what we have.
Still, if Harris had won the US would still be supporting Ukraine - and perhaps also be in the Iran/Israeli (perhaps US) War at the same time.
@Brenton
I agree, Harris would "still be supporting Ukraine". And IRL, we are still sending munitions + money + spooks & special forces to Ukraine, providing their satellite reconnaissance for attacks deep into Russian Federation and battlefield Starlink communications. This looks like support to me? Just with fewer rainbow flags & sparkly joyous & diverse unicorns in the related PR.
The attack on Iran required US satellite reconnaissance, US munitions and US tacit agreement, if not direct assistance in planning and implementation.
As several US comedians have said over at least the last 3 decades: If voting mattered, it would be illegal. So far, voting is still done, it is just front fun by oligarchs and insiders pre selecting those candidates who will do what is required, regardless of the mouth noises they had to make while campaigning. Enough people have noticed this that Trump or Biden were elected with about 30% of the votes of the total technically eligible US pool of voters.
We are about at the end of this dog and pony show, what comes next.
Same here - didn't vote in 2016, voted against Trump in 2020, voted for Trump in 2024, with Kamala looming he seemed a better choice out of the crappy choices.
Anyone voting for Biden in 2020 must have mental or reasoning issues. Casting a vote for a demented loser, hiding in a basement with a face mask on continually, claiming that the flu was the end of the world…
There were other people to vote in addition to Trump and Biden. And anybody who "shames" anybody on their voting choices, knows nothing about democracy.
Trump say/did so much nonsense by 2020, everybody had enough. "See what he does, not what he says" - what exactly did he do, except for spitting nonsense his first term around, like twitting that French Firefighters need to dump water from helicopter on Notre-Dame, when the weight of water will damage its structures in addition to fire. That's Trump's issue - he never knows when to shut up. How an old saying goes, "silence is fool's shield, fool is clever as long as he is silent." I voted for Trump because there was nobody else to vote, the rest was even worse/irrelevant.
You cast shame only on yourself when you seek to insult people who made different voting decisions from you. If everyone was in total agreement all the time we would not need elections, or even debates.
The shame is on whomever intentionally destroys their country with a decision to vote for insane policies, vaccine & masks mandates, trans ideology, abortion till the day of birth, unlimited illegal immigration & massive unfunded public government funding.
My home country, France, has lived a gradual descent into misery from those exact same people who express their democratic vote for evil socialists, importing millions of Africans while taxing everyone to death.
I would feel shame if I were responsible for replacing Easter with "trans visibility day", men competing against girls in sports, abortion on 8 month old fœtus and 10% inflation per year.
I don't understand why, after overwhelming evidence, Americans and Brits still talk as if personalities and political parties are in charge. They don't exist except as marketing. The same applies to democracy.
I don't like how Trump has performed so far either but I also believe Kamala would have been worse. She's a puppet through and through and with Trump you kind of know what you get (although that's somewhat questionable now, as well). The cynical part of me thinks, at least I get the better memes with Trump... In the end, I feel sorry for the American voters. I bet none of them wanted this. But that's what you get sometimes. In Germany we would call the last election the choice between the plague and cholera... two bad choices.
LOL, we had a similar choice in Canada, I think we voted for the plague, but maybe it was cholera? To be fair, both Germany and Canada did have other parties and leaders, but none who were deemed "electable". I decided I preferred to vote for influenza, even tho' I knew it could not win. :-D
Bless you!
Pure gold, thank you.
The oil lobby is behind Trump. He is unable to push through a reduction in the key interest rate and raise the price of oil due to inflation, so he decided to lead the war in the Middle East. The attack on Iran and the subsequent responses of this country (closure of the straits) will raise the price of oil.
Agree with most of this with the important American caveats on Wilson and Trump.
Wilson is difficult to see from 108 years later and across the world, but he wanted desperately to stay out of the war, but was pushed into it by American Anglophiles and German Miscalculation of unrestricted submarine warfare. He wept at the desk the night war was declared, a defeated man of peace. Wilson was no Anglophile.
He was trapped.
Trump’s focus is the United States, Ukraine is a trap set for him by Obama- Biden - Clinton and he has no intention of falling into it, nor is this likely, it’s very remote.
He certainly does want to dump Zelensky, it can’t be more obvious.
As Zelensky can’t live and accept the Olive Branch, and Zelensky wants to live and escape to Paris or London to his awaiting estates, the war will have to be tragically fought to the finish.
Trump will not accept the trap, Europe cannot, Zelensky wishes to live.
Tragic.
But Trump is no Wilson.
His International focus beyond building our American economy is if anything on closing down the Iran account, which is happening. At most if Iran completely refuses the deeply dug in uranium enrichment centrifuges and stocks will be bombed with GBU-30 penetrators , which are in Europe now.
Iran has lost and is negotiating their price.
Trump wants to rebuild America, he is not a man of war, he is a builder.
- not to be confused with a man of peace.
He is no Wilson.
Usually I find you to be a fairly astute observer and analyst of USA actions and politics. In this case, I think you have missed the mark so completely that there is not even any point in going looking in the brush for the arrow. By which I mean I doubt anything I could say to you, or people who think like you, would make any difference, and there are so many things to say to refute your conclusions that I don't have the energy to start. I suppose that time will tell whether Trump is a builder, or war-monger, or simply a stooge. Time will tell whether USA actually has bombs that will destroy Iran's underground facilities, and whether Trump will try to use them. I do not think anyone can accurately predict that any of Iran or Israel or USA has won or lost.
Thank you. I have no window to the future.
Iran may endure.
(I confess to mild animus).
I will hold onto; Trump’s focus is the USA.
The rest is secondary.
Ukraine and the Mideast are traps , indeed the Mideast a trap for Presidents for decades.
I will also hold that in the past wars have often been used by domestic opposition against President’s since Wilson.
I want my country to escape, to return home, to tend to our business.
Cheers, thank you.
The wholeworld would like your country to return home and mind your own business! Thanks for your measured reply.
Unfortunately the world’s governments do not reflect said wishes .
Let me be clear; I having seen the world cannot be more hostile to you, or immune to your pleas of innocence, or contemptuous of your purported grievances.
We are just guilty of making the same mistakes and committing the same deeds all of you did, and will return to refreshed and with renewed vigor the instant you’re not constrained.
The point of America since the American Indians* came across the Bering Strait is to escape your infinite gyrations and follies. I would not leave apologetically but with infinite animus, end all trade and diplomatic relations, all contact would be as if a foreign virus being handled in a secure level IV facility.
No trade outside the western hemisphere, no migration , no relationship.
We are in truth anathema and antimatter to each other. One would have to be a traveled American of a certain type - soldier in my case - to understand why, although most Americans understand this about ourselves.
We cannot mix, and if any nation understood our present mindset you couldn’t get away from us fast enough. We are cleaning house here, don’t let this happen to you.
So as we say , you can kill each other in peace.
For my own countrymen reading; choose us or flee. As you already sense.
So don’t misunderstand my isolationism as peaceful. I’m genocidal, and germicidal, and if you’re not American… but just want America.
“The essential American is hard, isolates himself, flinches at dirt, is merciless.” - DH Lawrence 120 years ago-
2025; The American character is now one of innocence gone, mercilessness is embraced with full open eyes, fuck virtue, and we who come now don’t flinch at dirt. As it happens we just want America.
I am not friendly to the other, I am implacably hostile to the other .
God Bless America, now run for your lives.
===========
*The Indians we simply monopolized what they did is all, and usually joined the firm. No one ever really discriminated against skin but intellectuals and Democrats.
Thanks for your work. Always appreciated.
Your commentary always strikes me as thoughtful analysis and not pre-ordained advocacy, regardless of the topic or your personal views.
It’s a long, but excellent article. If your attention span was too short to get through the whole thing, you may have missed this part:
“Commentators in the west rarely try to view the conflict from Russia’s perspective, but if they could they would quickly see why Russian confidence remains high. As Russia sees it, they have absorbed and defeated Ukraine’s two best punches on the ground (the 2023 counteroffensive and the Kursk operation), and they have weathered a long and steady infusion of western combat power without the trajectory of either the ground campaign or the strike war fundamentally shifting. Meanwhile, Russia has essentially scratched off the entire southern Donbas, pushing the front across the border into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and they are poised to wrap up the central sector of front as the advance around Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka blooms.
We’re left, then, with a jarring disconnect. On the one hand, the Trump Administration approached Ukraine as if their election fundamentally changed everything and instantly raised the probability of a negotiated peace. Russia, however, rather rightly feels that nothing has changed at all. They have absorbed everything the west has thrown into the conflict, and they continue to both advance on the ground and relentlessly strike Ukraine on a material basis that they clearly view as sustainable, without unduly burdening civilian life in Russia.”
The war is a real time illustration of Brenton’s summary of Von Clausewitz “maintenance of aim”. Russia follows this principle, Ukraine does not and seemingly cannot. The result is inevitable, only the timing is in doubt. However, “things collapse slowly, then all at once” as the saying goes.
First Theory of Victory for Ukraine
I'll skip over the premise that Ukraine started this war deliberately, that the goal was to take back initially LPR/DPR militarily. Mot peple made their mind up about that long ago. The CIA forecasts of a Russia invasion were really just a forecast of the necessary False Flag to justify the attack on Donbas. Note that when the SMO happened Kiev (and Western media) was caught entirely unprepared and lined up on the internal LPR/DPR borders, not the external borders with Russia or Belarus. And note the irony of a False Flag pre-empted by a real one.
So If the war was supposed to be on Donbas what was the theory of victory for Kiev, its military, and more importantly the US and European powers that were backing it? How could Ukraine defeat the rebels + Russia in an attack on Donbas?
6 years of building concrete bunkers from which to shell Donbas, planned with the assistance of Nato. This would give Ukraine the ability to destroy Donbas and at a minimum force upon LPR/DPR the removal of civilians to Russia. Azov based in Mariuopol was a similar threat. The removal of civilians alone would be a Ukrainian victory big enough for Biden to spin.
Without this willingness to target civilians, how else could Kiev or its US bosses convince Washington and Brussels that there was a sensible plan to defeat Russia militarily using Ukrainian troops?
This theory of a theory explains a great deal. The challenge for Russia was how to protect Donbas from attacks, and that meant getting Artillery in between the cities and the Urainian artillery with out it being shelled to pieces as it arrived (as Kiev would have prepared for). Only a great maskerada (distraction) would do. Special forces fighting at Hostomol airport, west of Kiev, was typical. After all what is 120k troops spread across half of Ukraine and beyond doing if not Maskerada. They certainly weren't trying to take Kharkov, let alone Kiev.
It explains how Russia could just turn up and defeat an artillery that had been digging itself in for 6 year. And how Azov got cut off. And why Zelensky was willing to sign up to a deal in April 2022. It wasn't that he was convinced by the maskerada - that was already quite clear. It was that he new that Theory 1 of victory had already failed. If he couldn't just slaugher Donbas residents, it would have to be a proper war.
And of course what took Russia so long to advance over the last 2 years - all those dug in shelling positions which held Russia up until they were finally all breached.
Dear Big Serge,
This work is distinctly subpar compared to your extant body of publications.
Let's start with the initial analysis of "Spider's Web"
1) Your assertions of damage done are clearly based on Western analysis, with no reference whatsoever made to the possibility of "destroyed planes" being inoperative planes parked on runways simply for storage and access. Nor do you reference "damaged" vs. "destroyed"; the notion that 1 or even a dozen small drones can destroy these gigantic objects requires hitting critical unreplaceable systems - not merely blowing up structure.
2) You also make no reference to START - where Flynn, MacGregor and others have noted that the terms of the START treaty REQUIRE strategic bombers to be in view.
3) You then conclude with a dismissal of the massive intelligence effort - one which likely compromised huge swathes of Ukraine (and likely Western) intelligence assets to execute.
4) There is also the question of Western assistance - either direct or indirect - noted above. Does Ukraine have the overhead surveillance to tell when bombers are parked in any particular base? Because it is well documented that they move around regularly. What about communications linking drone operators in Ukraine (or elsewhere...) to the drones in question. The assertion that Russian mobile comms were used is rather weak; anyone who uses video comms on a cell phone anywhere in the world can attest to the fundamentally low bandwidth and reliability of such systems anywhere but in the most core i.e. urban settings - which said air bases most certainly are not.
Now let's move on to the discussion of Woodrow Wilson and Trump.
a) Trump is not Woodrow Wilson, unless you believe Woodrow Wilson was massively arming one side of World War 1 prior to the US formal entry. Some help was certainly given - the scale of assistance, as in visible fractions of US/European inventory of weapons and ammunition, certainly was not the same for Wilson as for the United States both prior to Trump and even during Trump's 2nd term to date.
b) And since Trump is not Woodrow Wilson given the direct US hand in arming, giving cash, giving intelligence assistance, etc etc - Trump could never have been a true mediator.
c) No mention made either of the effects of the economic war on the world: higher food prices everywhere; massive disruptions in the European economies as they deindustrialize faster; disruptions hence costs in the LNG space, loss of not just markets but of invested technology and infrastructure in Russia for the West; the crippling, if not fatal, blow to the idea of Western rule of law ranging from Nord Stream sabotage (and subsequent whitewashing) to theft of Russian Central Bank funds to seizure of all manner of private Russian assets to literal nation-state targeting of economic sanctions on private individuals - all this as the Russian economy has outperformed the West for 2 years straight with no end to this streak in sight.
d) The destruction of much of Western military reputation: from its 1990s era equipment to its Desert Storm methodologies to Western "initiative" and "innovation" to the irrefutable exposure of the parlous state of Western military industry and its incapability to even match a fraction of Russia's non-fully mobilized production capabilities - even with budgets literally tens of multiples greater.
The pending defeat of Ukraine is not merely a defeat of Ukraine - it is no less than a significant short and medium strategic as well as tactical military defeat of the West.
Yeah, Big Serge, why didn't you include every possible aspect about these issues? We all want extra, super long articles so that we can read what other analysts have already observed. God forbid that you give us your own analytical observations and insight in a straightforward cogent manner.
Pretty sad attempt at sarcasm, given the length of Big Serge's articles.
Actually, I don't think his articles are too long, at least for me.
Thanks very much, from another old US Cold Warrior, for this well-written and dispassionate analysis. I started following the Ukraine war pretty closely at the outset in 2014, because the Maydan aftermath made it clear that magical thinking was the main influence on US policy, and might well lead us into WW3.
I discovered your Substack pretty early in the SMO. I recently went back through your archive to 2022 and began reading forward through all your Ukraine war updates. I think future historians may find that a valuable exercise as well.