Second thought I had on this excellent article; it took me ages to read (and I'm very busy) 99% of people WON'T read it to the end and will scan chunks. It's too long, needs savage editing, that's if Big Serge wants a BIG AUDIENCE! Less is more. The Left know this which is why all their output is short and punchy and wins elections.
And to all the Trump haters on here, do you really think you're smarter than Trump? He has saved the US from the Communist Democrats hell bent on mass immigration as a weapon of war for China, he's stopping the Queering of kids heads, another Chinese weapon of war and he's clamping down on insane payments to NGOs and other scum working to undermine the US and bankrupt the US, China's 3rd weapon of war. (Google Cloward-Piven strategy) And now he's quietly backing the only people on earth to stop Iran, the 2nd most extreme danger of anti-human nutcases close to getting nuclear weapons. Oh, and Trump is one of the richest Americans, what's in YOUR bank account?
Trump scammed the Iranians, using IAEI spies, and the fig leaf of a deal his saboteurs did to Iranian generals what they did to rusting bombers.
No one will talk to US and the EU is run by even less rational policy than US.
NY I rush who worked the docks were surveilled by the 1915 version of MI 6 thinking the U.S. branch of Irish resistance would harm US arms going to London.
100%. Have you bought your Trump Phone yet? I'm debating whether to order. At $499 and $47.95/month for unlimited voice, data, and texts - plus some kind of "telehealth" coverage - idk... it does have a gold case with the American flag in relief...
Maybe Trump should offer a deal where if he sells a million phones, he'll call off another Middle Eastern war to benefit Israel.
If only there was a way to short Trump's crypto coin... you at least wouldn't have to worry about the price of deworming pills.
I have to admit I got suckered on that. They went on sale at $45 around the time of his inauguration (and issued by his Commission to Re-Elect the President, or whatever his inauguration committee was called). I had never tried buying one of the meme coins before, and did it as a learning exercise. I lost a few bucks on one and sold. They're at $9 today.
I'm not an anti-Trumper... just kind of in the same mindset you are about him I think (e.g. the Trump "plan" of personal aggrandizement), and really disappointed that it looks like he's taking the U.S. into another Middle Eastern war. I thought I might have some stretch of my adult life where my country of birth wasn't fighting for Israel by murdering hapless brown people.
It's hard not to believe a common sense periodically coming from Trump's mouth. What is hard to believe is what's going on now. Basically, Trump Zelensky'd everybody - pulled 2019 election on the "peace" platform and screwed everybody up almost immediately. We are only 5 months into Trump reign, and we fight everybody and a kitchen sink
"we fight everybody and a kitchen sink" and somehow that's President Trump's fault!?
How about you start looking at the real warmongers.
NATO/ CIA/ UK/ EU/ UN/ WHO and all the other Deep State criminals.
I now know full well that the President has no real power, it's all in the hands of these monsters.
Anyone who dares to threaten their little "war-fest" is either bribed, compromised, suicided or assassinated.
Russia will win this NATO initiated, funded and controlled war because Putin is a true and patriotic leader and awake to the lying, corrupt NATO attempt to seize control of his country and bleed it dry.
The only proper reason for him to fight for power was to try to stop this shit. Not to threaten everybody into his "deals," like what he was offering to Russia made no sense, or shout on X to Iran "unconditional surrender," or publish the most ridiculous statements on X. Nobody pulls Trump's tongue to publish stupid things, threats, etc.
Trump was always going to do what his principal sponsors ask, and Netanyahu is top-3 in that list, if not higher. So the whole "no more stupid wars" thing was a transparent fraud. Same for the populist aspects of trade and fiscal, where he once talked a good game. Mega corps are likewise top-3. Most voters in the US are just suckers, not sure how else to put it. As for ending Ukraine war, that was just the flip side of "get Russia and China to not defend Iran" - which remains a wildcard because he's such a shit negotiator
One issue relatively neglected by commentators is the effect of a Russian military victory in a city: its destruction. One of the reasons for Ukraine defending until the bitter end even if defeat has appeared inevitable for some time is that this is their version of a scorched earth policy. They say, “if we are going to lose this city , then the Russians will acquire a destroyed city.” As the larger cities (Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kharkhov) are approached, this presents the Russians with a problem. They don’t want to destroy these cities, but the Ukrainians won't surrender them undamaged. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
So far when RF has made an effort to spare something from a battle, as soon as it's liberated the Ukrainians shoot it up just the same. Buildings can be rebuilt easier than people.
1. "More importantly, it is as true now as it was in 1917 that it is damnably difficult to convince warring states to stand down when their blood is up, and to walk away from the sunk cost of so much bloodshed. The motif of blame has even made its return, with many European parties writing off the idea of concessions to Russia simply on the basis that Moscow is the guilty party in this war."
Keep in mind that europe has paid no price. Sure, their economies are in shambles, but who cares? The peons may freeze or starve, but the rulers still are doing just fine. Sure, european subservience to America is greater than it ever was, but who cares? Europeans like being slaves and have this psychological need to be submissive. So unlike cats!
2. If Trump wanted to end the War On Russia, all he need to is loudly and publicly notify the european poodles that if they persist in provoking Russia, the United States will not come to their aid, even if missiles hit them.
Watch european tails tuck between european legs.
3. Like Wilson, Trump will get dragged into this war sooner or later, possibly as the price for european support for his War On Iran.
The european strategy ever always only was, once they ran low on Ukrainians to soak up Russian munitions, the the europeans would get stuck in, and finally, the United States would ride to the rescue rather than leave their catamites hanging out to dry.
There never was any other realistic plan, regardless what the catamites say in public. This plan is progressing as well as can be expected.
This is the most unbiased source on the Russia Ukraine war. Thank you, Big Serge. Unfortunate. no peace negotiations will succeed until Russia's security concerns are addressed. So far, no one in the West seems to understand this. The Russian stop line will probably be the Dnieper River. That would give them the four oblasts they've already annexed and a buffer zone.
This a comment that I should have inserted in my first post - and applies to what Big Serge was saying in his article about both the WWI and Russo-Ukranian negotiations.
Von Clausewitz wrote some 200 years ago that "War takes on a logic all of its own". In this the antagonists in a war lose all sense of why they originally go to war and it escalates into the utter destruction of the enemy above all else. The way to overcome this is to maintain the focus on the reasons why they went to war, ignoring distractions, emotion and the need for revenge. In the Military this is a principal of war called 'Maintenace of the Aim'. Where people let war overtake and come to dominate that logic - as in the West and the Ukranians are showing - then that side is doomed to defeat. Whereas the Russians have maintrained the aim and are executing their plan (operations and tactics) in the furtherance of it. The side that maintains the aim is the side who will win no matter how flash the operations on the other side.
I have incredible respect for your writing and analysis. I was born during WW II in occupied territory (the Netherlands) and have not read any as good as you.
The analogy is tempting, but it misses the mark, widely.
Jacques Baud might of interest to you with your scholarly bent. So are Putin's statement of objectives at the beginning of the SMO, not called a war for a reason. If it was a war, there might be no Kiev left.
The US has no role in peace negotiations other than as instigator of this proxy war against, with NATO in tow. The Russians want demilitarization, denazification and no terrorism after all is done. They also want a security structure that will stay around, NATO not being it.
There is plenty for you to read, no point in me rehashing it here.
Allow an old cold warrior with too much time in SAC bomber logistics to explain why those aircraft were out in the open. Losing 10% is likely no big deal.
New START replaced START I know a bit about reducing number of nuclear capable B-52, eliminating uneconomical FB 111, etc. Getting down to numbers included cutting wings off a lot of perfectly good aircraft! The remaining are to be open to satellite reconnaissance. New START is good to Feb 2026. It will not be renewed.
About the TU 95. Unless they are declared nuclear assets and are located with special weapons storage, and have force generation support, they are not part of a “strategic contingency force”.
Damage to AEW aircraft may be a big deal, but not to the Kievan tiff.
All this said the Spider Web operation as well as the abortive Tehran decapitation could not be done w/o US tech support for nav, comms and command, as well as direct CIA, Mossad, and MI 6 involvement.
It seems like you might have the background for an OT question. Trump went into a 13:00 EST meeting today with his staff, and reports are that it is about joining the Israeli war on Iran with the MOAB "bunker-buster" bombs, presumably to be launched from B-2 bombers leaving from Diego Garcia.
My question is - don't those planes have to be pretty much over or close to the nuclear facilities in QOM to hit them them with the MOAB bombs? They look like nearly-conventional gravity bombs with no internal propulsion system, though I saw some references that they have GPS for targeting.
If that's the case - Iran likely has Russian Su-35s in their inventory. Iran likely still has some of its lower frequency long-range radar arrays still operational - and the B-2s will light up on those (but have low positional accuracy). American pilots being shot down and held captive on Iranian territory will be a disaster for Trump, and there is some risk of it happening I would think.
Maybe they will try to protect the bombers with F-16s and F-35s of the Isreali Air Force?
I think they are usually dropped by C-130 Hercules at high altitude and have a 3 mile range. Guided by GPS. So not sure why Israel couldn't drop it with one of their C-130s (I'm thinking they have C-130s but not sure). Maybe they would want the "stealthyness" of the B2 bomber?
Agree with most of this with the important American caveats on Wilson and Trump.
Wilson is difficult to see from 108 years later and across the world, but he wanted desperately to stay out of the war, but was pushed into it by American Anglophiles and German Miscalculation of unrestricted submarine warfare. He wept at the desk the night war was declared, a defeated man of peace. Wilson was no Anglophile.
He was trapped.
Trump’s focus is the United States, Ukraine is a trap set for him by Obama- Biden - Clinton and he has no intention of falling into it, nor is this likely, it’s very remote.
He certainly does want to dump Zelensky, it can’t be more obvious.
As Zelensky can’t live and accept the Olive Branch, and Zelensky wants to live and escape to Paris or London to his awaiting estates, the war will have to be tragically fought to the finish.
Trump will not accept the trap, Europe cannot, Zelensky wishes to live.
Tragic.
But Trump is no Wilson.
His International focus beyond building our American economy is if anything on closing down the Iran account, which is happening. At most if Iran completely refuses the deeply dug in uranium enrichment centrifuges and stocks will be bombed with GBU-30 penetrators , which are in Europe now.
Iran has lost and is negotiating their price.
Trump wants to rebuild America, he is not a man of war, he is a builder.
This is a good read. For the Americans on this thread - unfortunately Trump was able to say the right things, things many Americans were thinking, but once in power predictably he disappoints and will continue to disappoint. Most observers on the Russo-Ukranian War knew that he had 'no cards' to use one of his own phrases (I think he knew that) and Big Serge is correct that his negotiation attempt was performance theatre. Once preformed he can then move on.
Now he has other issues of importance as it looks as if the 'No War President' is about to get involved in a new war in the Middle East. One that he has easily been manipulated into by the Israelis and the Hobbsian Liberals in Washington. He will find that it is very easy to get into a war but it is very hard to get out.
I admit that one reason I voted for Trump was I thought we could avoid a big war. That said, by far the biggest reason I voted for him was I felt Harris would have wrecked our economy and involved us in WWIII with either Russia or China or both. With Trump we still have a chance to avoid WWIII.
Same here - didn't vote in 2016, voted against Trump in 2020, voted for Trump in 2024, with Kamala looming he seemed a better choice out of the crappy choices.
I predicted that Trump would win last year - not because I support him but because of the sentiment in the US Electorate against the establishment that was doing little for the common man. Trump restyled himself as the anti-establishment candidate, despite the evidence of his first administration, and we have what we have.
Still, if Harris had won the US would still be supporting Ukraine - and perhaps also be in the Iran/Israeli (perhaps US) War at the same time.
I don't like how Trump has performed so far either but I also believe Kamala would have been worse. She's a puppet through and through and with Trump you kind of know what you get (although that's somewhat questionable now, as well). The cynical part of me thinks, at least I get the better memes with Trump... In the end, I feel sorry for the American voters. I bet none of them wanted this. But that's what you get sometimes. In Germany we would call the last election the choice between the plague and cholera... two bad choices.
It is not just Russia that is "vulnerable to asymmetric losses of this sort," but Europe and the US as well. If sabotage and terror will be the new normal, they will be the new normal everywhere.
It’s a long, but excellent article. If your attention span was too short to get through the whole thing, you may have missed this part:
“Commentators in the west rarely try to view the conflict from Russia’s perspective, but if they could they would quickly see why Russian confidence remains high. As Russia sees it, they have absorbed and defeated Ukraine’s two best punches on the ground (the 2023 counteroffensive and the Kursk operation), and they have weathered a long and steady infusion of western combat power without the trajectory of either the ground campaign or the strike war fundamentally shifting. Meanwhile, Russia has essentially scratched off the entire southern Donbas, pushing the front across the border into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and they are poised to wrap up the central sector of front as the advance around Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka blooms.
We’re left, then, with a jarring disconnect. On the one hand, the Trump Administration approached Ukraine as if their election fundamentally changed everything and instantly raised the probability of a negotiated peace. Russia, however, rather rightly feels that nothing has changed at all. They have absorbed everything the west has thrown into the conflict, and they continue to both advance on the ground and relentlessly strike Ukraine on a material basis that they clearly view as sustainable, without unduly burdening civilian life in Russia.”
The war is a real time illustration of Brenton’s summary of Von Clausewitz “maintenance of aim”. Russia follows this principle, Ukraine does not and seemingly cannot. The result is inevitable, only the timing is in doubt. However, “things collapse slowly, then all at once” as the saying goes.
Thank you for a quality report devoid of any propaganda. A good read.
Second thought I had on this excellent article; it took me ages to read (and I'm very busy) 99% of people WON'T read it to the end and will scan chunks. It's too long, needs savage editing, that's if Big Serge wants a BIG AUDIENCE! Less is more. The Left know this which is why all their output is short and punchy and wins elections.
And to all the Trump haters on here, do you really think you're smarter than Trump? He has saved the US from the Communist Democrats hell bent on mass immigration as a weapon of war for China, he's stopping the Queering of kids heads, another Chinese weapon of war and he's clamping down on insane payments to NGOs and other scum working to undermine the US and bankrupt the US, China's 3rd weapon of war. (Google Cloward-Piven strategy) And now he's quietly backing the only people on earth to stop Iran, the 2nd most extreme danger of anti-human nutcases close to getting nuclear weapons. Oh, and Trump is one of the richest Americans, what's in YOUR bank account?
Trump lied, he scammed me on ending Kiev’s war.
Trump scammed the Iranians, using IAEI spies, and the fig leaf of a deal his saboteurs did to Iranian generals what they did to rusting bombers.
No one will talk to US and the EU is run by even less rational policy than US.
NY I rush who worked the docks were surveilled by the 1915 version of MI 6 thinking the U.S. branch of Irish resistance would harm US arms going to London.
US was on the Brit side outside a few Irish .
I doubt that Trump exactly "scammed" anyone. Rather, he is weak, stupid and easily manipulated.
He conned me.
Yes, he is a deep state puppet.
I know now he is Bibi’ president.
I know that people believed Trump, there are still people who think that Trump has a plan.
I am saying that there never was a plan other than personal aggrandizement.
100%. Have you bought your Trump Phone yet? I'm debating whether to order. At $499 and $47.95/month for unlimited voice, data, and texts - plus some kind of "telehealth" coverage - idk... it does have a gold case with the American flag in relief...
Maybe Trump should offer a deal where if he sells a million phones, he'll call off another Middle Eastern war to benefit Israel.
I hate going to the vet.
If only there was a way to short Trump's crypto coin... you at least wouldn't have to worry about the price of deworming pills.
I have to admit I got suckered on that. They went on sale at $45 around the time of his inauguration (and issued by his Commission to Re-Elect the President, or whatever his inauguration committee was called). I had never tried buying one of the meme coins before, and did it as a learning exercise. I lost a few bucks on one and sold. They're at $9 today.
I'm not an anti-Trumper... just kind of in the same mindset you are about him I think (e.g. the Trump "plan" of personal aggrandizement), and really disappointed that it looks like he's taking the U.S. into another Middle Eastern war. I thought I might have some stretch of my adult life where my country of birth wasn't fighting for Israel by murdering hapless brown people.
Does it come with the remote detonation feature?
It's hard not to believe a common sense periodically coming from Trump's mouth. What is hard to believe is what's going on now. Basically, Trump Zelensky'd everybody - pulled 2019 election on the "peace" platform and screwed everybody up almost immediately. We are only 5 months into Trump reign, and we fight everybody and a kitchen sink
"we fight everybody and a kitchen sink" and somehow that's President Trump's fault!?
How about you start looking at the real warmongers.
NATO/ CIA/ UK/ EU/ UN/ WHO and all the other Deep State criminals.
I now know full well that the President has no real power, it's all in the hands of these monsters.
Anyone who dares to threaten their little "war-fest" is either bribed, compromised, suicided or assassinated.
Russia will win this NATO initiated, funded and controlled war because Putin is a true and patriotic leader and awake to the lying, corrupt NATO attempt to seize control of his country and bleed it dry.
The only proper reason for him to fight for power was to try to stop this shit. Not to threaten everybody into his "deals," like what he was offering to Russia made no sense, or shout on X to Iran "unconditional surrender," or publish the most ridiculous statements on X. Nobody pulls Trump's tongue to publish stupid things, threats, etc.
Trump was always going to do what his principal sponsors ask, and Netanyahu is top-3 in that list, if not higher. So the whole "no more stupid wars" thing was a transparent fraud. Same for the populist aspects of trade and fiscal, where he once talked a good game. Mega corps are likewise top-3. Most voters in the US are just suckers, not sure how else to put it. As for ending Ukraine war, that was just the flip side of "get Russia and China to not defend Iran" - which remains a wildcard because he's such a shit negotiator
I should have added - don't be too hard on yourself - at least you are starting to get wise.
Too many humans insist on doubling down like Kool Aid guzzling cult members.
Well you’re fucking retarded. Sorry dude. Shut the fuck up and think about why you were so mislead instead of complaining about it.
Ahhh. Paddy.
Edday! I hope no hard feelings. Ripping off some strong words to someone who doesn’t care about my views feels like spitting into the ocean.
I should’ve just said “I would like to register my opposition to this view” but that’s more rote and less interesting
No hard feelings: anger is a "poison we give ourselves".
Actually I was more opposed to Harris, HRC and Biden before.
It is that all this is what I saw Harris would do.
Proly won't vote next time.
What would I be if I got angry every time someone told me to GFY?
Cheers
Excellent summary as usual.
One issue relatively neglected by commentators is the effect of a Russian military victory in a city: its destruction. One of the reasons for Ukraine defending until the bitter end even if defeat has appeared inevitable for some time is that this is their version of a scorched earth policy. They say, “if we are going to lose this city , then the Russians will acquire a destroyed city.” As the larger cities (Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kharkhov) are approached, this presents the Russians with a problem. They don’t want to destroy these cities, but the Ukrainians won't surrender them undamaged. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
So far when RF has made an effort to spare something from a battle, as soon as it's liberated the Ukrainians shoot it up just the same. Buildings can be rebuilt easier than people.
All that embodied energy destroyed. Basic instinct to the bitter end.
Great read
1. "More importantly, it is as true now as it was in 1917 that it is damnably difficult to convince warring states to stand down when their blood is up, and to walk away from the sunk cost of so much bloodshed. The motif of blame has even made its return, with many European parties writing off the idea of concessions to Russia simply on the basis that Moscow is the guilty party in this war."
Keep in mind that europe has paid no price. Sure, their economies are in shambles, but who cares? The peons may freeze or starve, but the rulers still are doing just fine. Sure, european subservience to America is greater than it ever was, but who cares? Europeans like being slaves and have this psychological need to be submissive. So unlike cats!
2. If Trump wanted to end the War On Russia, all he need to is loudly and publicly notify the european poodles that if they persist in provoking Russia, the United States will not come to their aid, even if missiles hit them.
Watch european tails tuck between european legs.
3. Like Wilson, Trump will get dragged into this war sooner or later, possibly as the price for european support for his War On Iran.
The european strategy ever always only was, once they ran low on Ukrainians to soak up Russian munitions, the the europeans would get stuck in, and finally, the United States would ride to the rescue rather than leave their catamites hanging out to dry.
There never was any other realistic plan, regardless what the catamites say in public. This plan is progressing as well as can be expected.
This is the most unbiased source on the Russia Ukraine war. Thank you, Big Serge. Unfortunate. no peace negotiations will succeed until Russia's security concerns are addressed. So far, no one in the West seems to understand this. The Russian stop line will probably be the Dnieper River. That would give them the four oblasts they've already annexed and a buffer zone.
This a comment that I should have inserted in my first post - and applies to what Big Serge was saying in his article about both the WWI and Russo-Ukranian negotiations.
Von Clausewitz wrote some 200 years ago that "War takes on a logic all of its own". In this the antagonists in a war lose all sense of why they originally go to war and it escalates into the utter destruction of the enemy above all else. The way to overcome this is to maintain the focus on the reasons why they went to war, ignoring distractions, emotion and the need for revenge. In the Military this is a principal of war called 'Maintenace of the Aim'. Where people let war overtake and come to dominate that logic - as in the West and the Ukranians are showing - then that side is doomed to defeat. Whereas the Russians have maintrained the aim and are executing their plan (operations and tactics) in the furtherance of it. The side that maintains the aim is the side who will win no matter how flash the operations on the other side.
I have incredible respect for your writing and analysis. I was born during WW II in occupied territory (the Netherlands) and have not read any as good as you.
The analogy is tempting, but it misses the mark, widely.
Jacques Baud might of interest to you with your scholarly bent. So are Putin's statement of objectives at the beginning of the SMO, not called a war for a reason. If it was a war, there might be no Kiev left.
The US has no role in peace negotiations other than as instigator of this proxy war against, with NATO in tow. The Russians want demilitarization, denazification and no terrorism after all is done. They also want a security structure that will stay around, NATO not being it.
There is plenty for you to read, no point in me rehashing it here.
Big Serge, outstanding read!
Allow an old cold warrior with too much time in SAC bomber logistics to explain why those aircraft were out in the open. Losing 10% is likely no big deal.
New START replaced START I know a bit about reducing number of nuclear capable B-52, eliminating uneconomical FB 111, etc. Getting down to numbers included cutting wings off a lot of perfectly good aircraft! The remaining are to be open to satellite reconnaissance. New START is good to Feb 2026. It will not be renewed.
About the TU 95. Unless they are declared nuclear assets and are located with special weapons storage, and have force generation support, they are not part of a “strategic contingency force”.
Damage to AEW aircraft may be a big deal, but not to the Kievan tiff.
All this said the Spider Web operation as well as the abortive Tehran decapitation could not be done w/o US tech support for nav, comms and command, as well as direct CIA, Mossad, and MI 6 involvement.
No one in the non west will take US for granted….
It seems like you might have the background for an OT question. Trump went into a 13:00 EST meeting today with his staff, and reports are that it is about joining the Israeli war on Iran with the MOAB "bunker-buster" bombs, presumably to be launched from B-2 bombers leaving from Diego Garcia.
My question is - don't those planes have to be pretty much over or close to the nuclear facilities in QOM to hit them them with the MOAB bombs? They look like nearly-conventional gravity bombs with no internal propulsion system, though I saw some references that they have GPS for targeting.
If that's the case - Iran likely has Russian Su-35s in their inventory. Iran likely still has some of its lower frequency long-range radar arrays still operational - and the B-2s will light up on those (but have low positional accuracy). American pilots being shot down and held captive on Iranian territory will be a disaster for Trump, and there is some risk of it happening I would think.
Maybe they will try to protect the bombers with F-16s and F-35s of the Isreali Air Force?
I think they are usually dropped by C-130 Hercules at high altitude and have a 3 mile range. Guided by GPS. So not sure why Israel couldn't drop it with one of their C-130s (I'm thinking they have C-130s but not sure). Maybe they would want the "stealthyness" of the B2 bomber?
It's an amazing time...The comments may include veterans of the US SAC bomber, but also veterans of Russian radio intelligence.:)
Agree with most of this with the important American caveats on Wilson and Trump.
Wilson is difficult to see from 108 years later and across the world, but he wanted desperately to stay out of the war, but was pushed into it by American Anglophiles and German Miscalculation of unrestricted submarine warfare. He wept at the desk the night war was declared, a defeated man of peace. Wilson was no Anglophile.
He was trapped.
Trump’s focus is the United States, Ukraine is a trap set for him by Obama- Biden - Clinton and he has no intention of falling into it, nor is this likely, it’s very remote.
He certainly does want to dump Zelensky, it can’t be more obvious.
As Zelensky can’t live and accept the Olive Branch, and Zelensky wants to live and escape to Paris or London to his awaiting estates, the war will have to be tragically fought to the finish.
Trump will not accept the trap, Europe cannot, Zelensky wishes to live.
Tragic.
But Trump is no Wilson.
His International focus beyond building our American economy is if anything on closing down the Iran account, which is happening. At most if Iran completely refuses the deeply dug in uranium enrichment centrifuges and stocks will be bombed with GBU-30 penetrators , which are in Europe now.
Iran has lost and is negotiating their price.
Trump wants to rebuild America, he is not a man of war, he is a builder.
- not to be confused with a man of peace.
He is no Wilson.
This is a good read. For the Americans on this thread - unfortunately Trump was able to say the right things, things many Americans were thinking, but once in power predictably he disappoints and will continue to disappoint. Most observers on the Russo-Ukranian War knew that he had 'no cards' to use one of his own phrases (I think he knew that) and Big Serge is correct that his negotiation attempt was performance theatre. Once preformed he can then move on.
Now he has other issues of importance as it looks as if the 'No War President' is about to get involved in a new war in the Middle East. One that he has easily been manipulated into by the Israelis and the Hobbsian Liberals in Washington. He will find that it is very easy to get into a war but it is very hard to get out.
I admit that one reason I voted for Trump was I thought we could avoid a big war. That said, by far the biggest reason I voted for him was I felt Harris would have wrecked our economy and involved us in WWIII with either Russia or China or both. With Trump we still have a chance to avoid WWIII.
Same here - didn't vote in 2016, voted against Trump in 2020, voted for Trump in 2024, with Kamala looming he seemed a better choice out of the crappy choices.
I predicted that Trump would win last year - not because I support him but because of the sentiment in the US Electorate against the establishment that was doing little for the common man. Trump restyled himself as the anti-establishment candidate, despite the evidence of his first administration, and we have what we have.
Still, if Harris had won the US would still be supporting Ukraine - and perhaps also be in the Iran/Israeli (perhaps US) War at the same time.
I don't like how Trump has performed so far either but I also believe Kamala would have been worse. She's a puppet through and through and with Trump you kind of know what you get (although that's somewhat questionable now, as well). The cynical part of me thinks, at least I get the better memes with Trump... In the end, I feel sorry for the American voters. I bet none of them wanted this. But that's what you get sometimes. In Germany we would call the last election the choice between the plague and cholera... two bad choices.
It is not just Russia that is "vulnerable to asymmetric losses of this sort," but Europe and the US as well. If sabotage and terror will be the new normal, they will be the new normal everywhere.
Thanks for your work. Always appreciated.
Your commentary always strikes me as thoughtful analysis and not pre-ordained advocacy, regardless of the topic or your personal views.
Brilliant writing.
It’s a long, but excellent article. If your attention span was too short to get through the whole thing, you may have missed this part:
“Commentators in the west rarely try to view the conflict from Russia’s perspective, but if they could they would quickly see why Russian confidence remains high. As Russia sees it, they have absorbed and defeated Ukraine’s two best punches on the ground (the 2023 counteroffensive and the Kursk operation), and they have weathered a long and steady infusion of western combat power without the trajectory of either the ground campaign or the strike war fundamentally shifting. Meanwhile, Russia has essentially scratched off the entire southern Donbas, pushing the front across the border into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and they are poised to wrap up the central sector of front as the advance around Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka blooms.
We’re left, then, with a jarring disconnect. On the one hand, the Trump Administration approached Ukraine as if their election fundamentally changed everything and instantly raised the probability of a negotiated peace. Russia, however, rather rightly feels that nothing has changed at all. They have absorbed everything the west has thrown into the conflict, and they continue to both advance on the ground and relentlessly strike Ukraine on a material basis that they clearly view as sustainable, without unduly burdening civilian life in Russia.”
The war is a real time illustration of Brenton’s summary of Von Clausewitz “maintenance of aim”. Russia follows this principle, Ukraine does not and seemingly cannot. The result is inevitable, only the timing is in doubt. However, “things collapse slowly, then all at once” as the saying goes.
Thank you