@bigserge: Nigerian here. Just wanted to add a few thoughts of my own to your analysis.
In the African countries where Wagner is active, they have local support. For example, a monument was built in Central Africa Republic by a local sculptor to celebrate Wagner's successful fightback against Jihadist insurgents.
I monitor Russian Telegram Channels and I have heard some of the masked Wagner fighters in the Donbass region say that they wish to return to Africa where things are much easier.
Fact of the matter is that Wagner on the African continent had a free hand to operate with no oversight from Russian MOD at all, and only minimal supervision from Kremlin and the host African state.
So there is a deep resentment from Prigozhin and a faction of his fighters about the subjugation to dictates of Russian MOD in the Ukrainian Theatre of Operations.
In Bakhmut, Wagner could not simply plan and execute its own operations. It had to obey the dictates of Russian MOD, a military bureaucratic entity they did not particularly like or respect.
You can see how Prigohzin was going mad in Bakhmut about not getting the weapons they need.
It was not about whether the munitions were really enough. It was about the fact that Wagner could not get what they demanded upon request as would have been the case in any African nation where they were operating.
If Wagner troops asked the governments of Burkina Faso, Mali or Central Africa Republic to supply certain material to help the local counterinsurgency effort, they always got it without arguments. (Please note that host African countries do pay for some of the weaponry used by Wagner, although not all of it).
Prigozhin and the loyalist core of his fighters just could not adapt themselves to the situation in the SMO Zone in Ukraine. It was just too different from their African experience. Attempts to absorb Wagner into the regular Russian Army was the last straw. So they revolted against Russian MOD and the rest is history.
The big question now is what will happen with Wagner operations in Africa? If they continue, will they be under some "new management" (who?), or same (Prigozhin from Belarus?). If they fold or discontinue, then it is still huge win for Western powers - particularly the French would rejoice as Wagner squeezed them out from key playgrounds in francophone central / western Africa.
PS. If any historic analogy is to be given, Mussolini's "March on Rome" is much closer - and extends to reasons why Prigozhin failed and Mussolini succeeded, which is support of key holders of state, industrial, military, media powers. By the time Mussolini started his march on Rome, he had most of these on his side, while Prigozhin had essentially none. Not mentioned here, but I think big part was that Wagner-inclined media (telegram channels) got shut-down as the march was underway.
Wagner did not squeeze France out of the Francophone African States, the governments there with support from the local populace did that. Even if Wagner did not exist, French troops would have been kicked out of those particular countries where anti-French sentiment was raging.
Please note that majority of Francophone African nations continue to have warm relations with France and host its military bases. There are still 3000 French troops in those still existing military bases and an additional 3000 French troops are in other Francophone countries where France has no official military bases. In such countries, French troops share quarters with the local soldiers
What will become of Wagner forces currently stationed in some African countries (and Syria)?
I don't know. But as far as speculation goes, I guess Putin will behave true to his nature. Most likely, Wagner troops will be allowed to get on with their work of dealing with jihadist insurgents while a permanent solution is sought.
Whatever eventually becomes of Wagner in Belarus is likely to be reflected on Wagner in Africa.
In other words, if Putin let's the status-quo of Prigozhin maintaining control of the rump Wagner PMC in Belarus to stand then I see no reason why Prigozhin can't be allowed to keep control of Wagner in far flung Africa.
If on the other hand, Putin and Lukashenko decide to dissolve Wagner in Belarus then same fate awaits Wagner in Africa.
Contrary to what many think, Kremlin does not directly deploy Wagner to foreign nations. What actually happens is that a friendly nation asks Kremlin for Russian troops. Putin responds by recommending Wagner. Then that foreign nation awards a contract to Prigozhin with down payment. After that, Wagner appears.
No problem, I will put out the Wagner article over the weekend or early next week. I have just gathered all videos and other resources that will go into the Wagner article I am currently working on
"the governments there with support from the local populace did that"
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Not false, but not true either. Wagner and the military factions that had not yet seized power lead a complex strategy of misinformation. This allowed the factions to seize power with some popular support, but whether Mali or Burkina, or CAR, it is an illusion to believe that the whole population would support Wagner. In Mali, half of the population in the regions that have been out of government control for a while are simply not part of the equation. In the other half of the country, there are many kinds of oppositions to the military government and to Wagner. And the more exactions are committed on civilian populations, the more resent grows. Despite the boastful claims of the new Malian rulers, everything points to a very fast degradation of security conditions for civilians since the departure of French forces. The official propaganda cannot hide this, because people are experiencing the effects directly.
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Regarding other Western African countries where French soldiers are still present, you have probably been aware that France recently announced plans to remove most of its soldiers. There is no longer a desire from France to sacrifice her resources for countries where governments are happy to spread hatred of France to cover their failures. Which is why those countries and France are now busy accelerating the training of local forces, as they will soon be expected to fence for themselves. t is most likely that some French military power will remain in Niger and in Ivory Coast for longer, but not in other countries. And even in those 2 countries, the number of French soldiers and the advanced equipment available will be much less significant than they are today.
I wonder if the current riots in France would curb Macron's regime appetite towards foreign wars. From perspective of internal French politics opposition parties will certainly hammer on the irony and hypocrisy of France "providing security" in Mali, when even suburbs of Paris go up in flames.
You're misinformed. Macron did not send troops to Mali, he actually inherited that. And as a matter of fact, he is the one who decided to pull French troops out of Mali. He also recently announced a serious scaling back of French military presence in many African countries, with residual concentrations in Ivory Coast and Niger to help prepare the military forces of regional countries to the expanding jihadi threat.
You may also have noted that Macron was the only Western leader who tried to engage Putin diplomatically to try and avoid war. He suffered from the lack of credibility that France has now in Russia's eyes, particularly following German acknowledgement that the Minsk Agreement were not a sincere move but only served to tricked Russia. While no French leader has voiced the same kind of things and France did not consider the Minsk Agreement to be trickery, this proved that France itself had no influence on NATO treachery and could not be taken seriously by Putin.
Nevertheless, to imagine that "Macron's regime", whatever that means, has appetite towards foreign wars, is seriously out of touch with facts.
Lukashenko has said that he wants Wagner to help build his army of 75,000 men to one of 500,000. That doesn't sound like Prigozhin will be kicked out anytime soon.
I suspect that Russia would like to pay back the West with the same coin. And getting Wagner back to Africa kicking the European neocolonial rule out of the continent would be a superb revenge. That's my bet for Wagner's near future.
Interesting point. What are you all thinking about the future of Wagner in Africa? Will they continue to operate independently or und the realm of the MOD? Thanks
Given the complete control they have of local authorities and institutions, it is certainly unwise to believe that a statue by a local artist indicates support from the local population. It may simply reflect obedience to the people who hold the rifle. Or support for a faction that sees its interest in offering the country's resources to Wagner, and that wouldn't care about the opinions of the larger population.
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Wagner was portrayed as very powerful by the military juntas in CAR or Mali, and now Burkina. But the failed adventure in Russia has shown that Wagner is a lot of hot air compared to actual military powers of strong and organised states. I think Wagner's reputation among those who opened their countries to the Russian PMC will soon dwindle sharply. In turn, I wouldn't be surprised in the military rulers of African countries seek direct involvement of Russia in a more official manner.
Thanks for dose of reality. What you may not know is that Shoigu is the most corrupt man in Russia and so well connected as to be impossible to remove from office.
that is all part of what is so curious about it, though I would point out that Burkina Faso denied the presence of Wagner in their country as recently as May 5th.
There cannot be civil peace whilst the branches fight the vine. Every citizen and every republic was de jure an equal if not de facto, in the USSR. And they were trying to make it so.
The ? rebellion was just one more fissiparous neurotic attempt to satisfy selfishness. This will repeat , without unity.
Putin is doing a BETTER job now. than Stalin could. But it's a hard job.
"You can see how Prigohzin was going mad in Bakhmut about not getting the weapons they need. It was not about whether the munitions were really enough. "
HE HAD ALL WEAPONS AND MUNITIONS!!!!!!!
2) saying that Wagner works independently in Africa is just PROPOSTEROUS man.
Not too surprising that US state media went all in on the message that ‘Putin is weak.’ And some people would still rather believe them than their own lying eyes. Having said that, wasn’t this an enormous gamble? I think that’s why narratives that it was all planned in advance spring up. But if you think about it, only the head of a mercenary army would have the nerve to do something like this. It does seem incredible that P got away with his head intact. But as they used to say, stay tuned!
Given Putins statements yesterday, I suspect his days are very limited. I suspect Putin is going to go after all the leaders of the "mutiny" in a very Russian way.
I suspect he will send a very clear message to all the contract mercenaries he uses, not to mess around with stuff like that.
I was always wondering why they were allowing P to whine so loosely to western media. Now I think we see they were doing a delicate dance to manage him out of being required.
I commented on another substack that this, in a way, would make a sequel to that terrific 2002 Russian war movie 'Kukushka' aka 'The Cuckoo'. I loved that movie! Everyone will speak in a different language so no one would understand what the hell is happening even though they need each other.
Say what you will about Prigozyhyn: he caused the death of Russian servicemen, he definitely caused some kind of morale drop judging by the numerous minor tactical successes the Ukrainians have enjoyed today, and which may or may not snowball into something else. Unlikely, but this is war. He put his own priorities ahead of Russia's, in the face of an existential war which has a long way to run.
Despite that, I consider him an absolute legend. His story ended ignominiously but it was not so for most of it. I can't forget Soledar and Bakhmut, and how absolutely larger than life he was, free of any burdens or bounds. I consider it totally unsurprising that the Russian citizenry cheered wildly for Wagner AND Putin at the end of the rebellion; it remains a complicated relationship, and Russians seem to be still capable of having those as opposed to the boring binary West where everything is either "good" or "bad".
Further evidence that Russia really is Third Rome. This reminds me of the Roman Republic, with great men at the head of loyal armies vying for power. It shocks, confounds and frightens the bugman
Agreed. My brain is hurting from all the theories I have read or heard. And come to think of it, the Russians are being awfully quiet about the downed airmen. Were they killed or not? How many? What were their names? Honor them as usual, right?
The idea that Russia, which has been terrible at P.R. management throughout this war, when it has even tried to manage P.R. at all, would engage in an incredibly elaborate ruse going back months, a ruse which not only required all parties, including Russia's enemies, to play their parts perfectly, but also allowed Ukraine supporters to spin a huge, public, and comprehensive defeat into a victory, is all a bit too much.
If that's "The Plan" then Russia needs better plans or better planners.
A much simpler explanation - Prigozhin let success and fame go to his head, and didn't want to be swept aside. This would not be the first time that this has happened to someone. He wasn't shunted aside after previous performative stunts, because the Stavka and Putin didn't want to make a martyr out of the man, turn a loudmouth with no filter into The War Hero Who Was Sacked For Telling The Truth. The fact that Prigozhin shoots his mouth off continually, and says all sorts of inconsistent things helps him here. Those who are against the war can cherry pick a statement or two and say that represents Progozhin's beliefs. Those who favor escalation can say that is The Real Prigozhin. Those who have some other idea can probably find something that the man said at one time for them to like and decide that everything else is a headfake. Sort of like Donald Trump.
How the hell did he calculate the odds of winning ... anything? What was his objective? Take over the Russian state? Never in the cards. If he thought it was, then I gotta believe lotsa people were whispering in his ears. In that case, Putin’s wringing all the intel out of him as we speak. From where I sit, admittedly without much real information, it just looks boneheaded. Hence the attraction of the psyop hypothesis. Note that psyops wouldn’t be worth much if they were easy to see.
Honestly, like a lot of things people do, I'm far from convinced that there was a real "plan", just a series of spur of the moment decisions, each leading to "so now, what?"
I have watched a number of videos of Prigozhin when he raved and gesticulated wildly in a manner that reminded me of watching some of my rowdier friends in their younger days at the height of a days long cocaine and/or adderral bender. Or alternatively, remind me of a manic episode by an exgf with bipolar disorder when she'd go off her lithium.
It seems like Prigozhin was expecting to repeat his success in Crimea 2014. At that time, a pretty prosecutor from Kiev, Natalya "Nyash Myash" Poklonskaya had rallied the local police authorities to ally with the regional government and not Kiev. The local population overwhelmingly welcomed intervention from Russia and rejected Kiev.
Putin sent in "the polite green men", a combination of state forces and private security people who would later be known as the Wagner Group. Many of these were already in place at the Russian naval base in Sevastopol and as private security throughout the territory. These forces numbered around 20,000 I believe. Their task was to neutralize Ukrainian army forces of around 60,000 army and navy troops.
Initially the pro-Russian forces were outnumbered 3 to 1. However, many of the Ukrainian troops were Crimeans hostile to the new regime. 20,000 of them were persuaded to sign on with the Russian army and navy for better pay and conditions. 20,000 of them simply deserted and returned to civilian life. The loyal Ukrainian troops were now outnumbered 2 to 1 in a hostile environment. They wisely accepted safe passage back to Ukraine, with barely a shot fired.
Prigozhin may have gambled that he could repeat that feat banking on Wagners popular celebration in movies (Best in Hell and Redemption) and music videos (Summer and Crossbows).
The little green men were the special paratrooper regiments I believe (or Airborn whatever you call them) not Wagner. And Prigozhin is an uneducated, incompetent idiot, with clear mental issues, just today he said his march on Moscow was a master lesson on how things should have been handled in Ukraine. Really Piggy? The Ukrainians would have just let you drive all the way to Kiev and let you take TikToks for free? Freaking idiot. Some military bloggers even repeat the same, saying how Ukraine can easily win by just attacking at the Russian border and driving to Moscow too. wow, what geniuses, I'm sure nobody thought of THAT idea before social media influencers. Just take some tanks and drive them the enemy capital, a move even Moltke, Napoleon, or Manstein couldn't ever envision.
There were regular army units in Crimea, but PMCs were a component of the Green men. None of the forces wore regimental badges so it is difficult to say what the percentage of PMCs to army was.
It is discouraging to see that the Russian media is as capable of creating false narratives and setting them in stone as Western presstitutes. The Russian media has set in stone the narrative that Prigozhin, the commander of the Wagner Group which has done most of the fighting in the liberation of Donbass, launched an “armed rebellion” against Putin despite the fact that there is no evidence of an armed rebellion.
The so-called “coup” has many curious aspects and raises many neglected questions.
I acknowledge that Prigozhin had become increasingly displeased with the Russian military command. The Kremlin had not addressed the feud between Prigozhin and the Russian military brass. The Kremlin’s failure to resolve the differences is the most likely cause of events mischaracterized as a coup. For Prigozhin, the final straw was his belief that an encampment of his troops was hit by a missile from the rear, that is, from Russia, not from Ukraine. Perhaps Prigozhin was given false information for the purpose of worsening the relations between the main fighting force and the Russian high command during a Ukrainian “counter offensive.” Perhaps a missile strike occurred, but has a different explanation.
The situation exploded when the Russian Ministry of Defense denied Prigozhin’s accusation when the proper response would have been to send an investigatory team to establish the fact and if a missile strike did occur to determine the source.
Yes, but undoubtedly both the western forces and the Russians had some information in advance. How did those actors play into the drama? Was his recklessness encouraged? Does the quick roll up indicate that his plan was countered much earlier than it seems?
Prigozhin was a businessman resisting nationalisation. Usually, such people do not have tanks so they resist by lobbying Parliament. He had tanks so he chose a different path. Same idea though.
No doubt the Russian state going forward will be careful not to contract out making war. Although the whole PMC “thing” clearly had benefits at the time.
Your US comparison is spot on too. We ought not to gloat in the west. France and the ongoing “protests” there provide another comparator too.
A great piece ,also showing the pathetic state that the Western world's media have fallen to.
Prighozin is MERCENARY somi would not be surprised if he was a,so promised cash.Whether he can spend it is another question.
Another commentator has compared this with the failed 1961 coup against De Gaulle by a quartet of Generals, lasted about the same time 4 or 5 days I think
Jeff..don't call them K--e...That is what they want....The little german asshole have given them all they need..They are not like rats( there aren't that many of them),they are not stupid and worst of all THEY ARE PACIENT! Imagine for 2000 years..I don't know how many generations..30..40..have listen to their parents say..WAIT LITTLE JACOB..WE WILL GO BACK TO THE PROMISE LAND!....And look where they are now!!From Rome to Paris, from Paris to London,from London to Washington..in the 90's they got a hold of Moskow..I don't know how they are dealing with China but by the way Chinese just want to do deals I don't think they are to far behind!
A question: Was the Kremlin aware of Prigozhin's plot before the fact? If it wasn't (which I doubt) why wasn't it? The ever forthright and truthful Americans claim they knew in advance. Substacker Simplicius the Thinker notes that even bloggers like Wargonzo had recently brought up the indelicate subject of a march on Moscow with Prigozhin. These events start to look less like the machinations of an impenetrable cabal than a coming attraction teased openly on Telegram.
For the sake of argument, let's assume the Kremlin knew enough to consider a coup attempt by Prigozhin a real possibility. Why not preempt it?
It's not impossible to come up with reasons the Kremlin might entertain doing nothing. By letting Prigozhin draw first, they might discredit a charismatic loose cannon without instigating a public or, worse, military backlash by a preemptive arrest; rein in a popular but unruly organization and place it under the explicit authority of the defense ministry; and coax adversarial intelligence operations to come out in the open. Under the circumstances it might look like a least-bad option.
There is another dimension, perhaps serendipitous, perhaps by design, to consider. By swiftly and categorically crushing Prigozhin's gambit, the Russian state administered a dose of unpleasant reality to a long-cherished neocon belief. The Putin government is not a house of cards. It will not collapse from within. To the contrary, the deadly buffoonery of this interlude should be, in a saner world, as much a wakeup call as the stillborn counteroffensive by NATO's Ukrainian proxies.
Should be, but won't, at least to the revanchist, reality-proof ideological vanguard with clubhouses in D.C. and Brussels. They will persist till the end of time, which, if they have their way, may come sooner than any of us would like. But as their harebrained hopes and illusions—the march to Mariupol, the Moscow maidan—fall away one by one, some of the West's fair-weather followers may, just may, begin to come to their senses.
Not to venture too far into the camp of omni-competence, but could it be that the Russian government let Prigozhin make his play within something like a political security or crumple zone, wagering it would safely—relatively safely—expose not only Prigozhin's perfidy but the West's follacious [sic] assumptions?
Maybe that's just more lemonade. If it is, I hope the acumen and expertise of Big Serge and others, however marginal they are for now, help bring some of that sweet citrus to the blinkered. It's up to them to drink.
I'm surprised you've gone to press so quickly on this as I think anyone who says they know for sure what's going on in Russia right now is lying to themselves and lying to his or her audience. But that's a cool-headed weighing up of the evidence and drawing of conclusions thereon. Quite where events will lead to in the next seven days appears to be anybody's guess at the moment and you're wise enough not to make any wild predictions, unlike the terminally wrong western twitterati.
Essentially Prigozhin is a modern day pirate. I'm sure there must be historical parallels in terms of British pirate captains (or 'privateers') in the Caribbean turning on shipping belonging to their own king. He is a traitor and that's all he is. His men get the credit for Soledar/Bakhmut, sure. Not him.
He's a pirate who found himself in an ultimate stakes poker game and he lost. I do suspect he genuinely wanted to force Putin into reversing the absorption of Wagner into the Russian military. That may very well be the only motivation for this act of folly. I don't get any sense of him wanting to cause the unravelling of the Russian state. The 'protest march' was simply, as you suggest, designed to shock Putin into maintaining the status quo. The very fact that Prigozhin appears to be still at large is evidence that he does carry enough power to cause the Russia government/military significant problems, sufficient for them to back off and kick the Prigozhin can down the road.
But if the Belarus exile story is accurate, that's all Putin has achieved: take the country-destabilising problem and move it next door. That's just buying time. It's also handing over a country-destabilising problem to his next door neighbour, Lukashenko, who has far less resources than Russia to be able to deal with Prigozhin and elements of Wagner loyal to him, which I'd guess is a hell of a lot of them, but we'll see over the coming week just how many that is. If you're Lukashenko, do you want Prigozhin and say 25,000 Wagnerites stationed on bases in Belarus? I don't believe Prigozhin could be bought off by the USA to try to coup Russia but if they offered him an amnesty and vast amounts of money to try to coup Belarus? It's such an obvious ploy that I would almost be surprised now if it didn't happen. Victoria Nuland will already be working on it. The presence of Russian military with nuclear weapons is a potentially world-ending level complication.
Any dismissal of the 'protest march' being a psyop must also dismiss Prigozhin's anti-Shoigu rants going back months as being psyops. With hindsight it would be easy to identify those rants as a precursor to the events of Friday and Saturday. The decision was made to absorb Wagner into the Russian army – rightly so – and this set off a chain of events that in some way was inevitable.
Let's not forget that Prigozhin had threatened to pull out of Bakhmut around the time it finally fell. I can only imagine there was no safe way for Wagner to do so without risking massive loss of life.
Russia does need to move to a totally integrated military model as quickly as possible, for their sakes. There is way too much of a medieval England vibe, with the king (Putin) relying on certain powerful barons (Prigozhin, Kadyrov) to supply their men to go off and bash some 'infidels'. Integrating Wagner had to happen and because it had to happen some degree of internal conflict was inevitable; it was just a question of where the conflict would lie on the spectrum of criticality.
I wouldn't downplay the seriousness of events. Putin has not won here. He has merely kicked the can down the road and passed the problem on to a neighbour very vulnerable to western meddling. It's less of a bomb disposal and more of a chucking a grenade to Uncle Sasha and saying "Catch".
Assuming Prigozhin can be neutered successfully, removing the risk of him acting against the Russian military, Russia has still lost what appears to be their most successful go-forward troops. Disbanding Wagner and dispersing the men into other units seems unlikely to get the best out of those men, particularly if they are aggrieved about the decision, less lucrative contracts, etc.
It will have a negative impact on the Russian war effort, no doubt. But did Russia have any choice other than to integrate Wagner? I believe not. Bakhmut becomes even more fascinating. Prigozhin's and Wagner's last battle? Was there some element of Wagner being sacrificed, weakening Prigozhin's position? Was he right that Shoigu was playing games with munitions supplies? Both sides have been guilty of sacrificing units, I believe, and Ukraine appears far more guilty of it than Russia. If reports are to be believed, Ukraine pulled out a lot of their most capable units from Bakhmut and sent in barely capable 'cannon fodder', effectively sacrificing thousands of young men. Generals would say "This is war", I suppose, but to a civilian it feels morally repugnant.
This latest turn of events underline what a remarkable leader Putin is. He doesn't allow his emotions to rule his head and in that respect any desire by the west to see Putin replaced must stem from people 'blessed' with incredibly poor instincts, leading to incredibly reckless foreign policy. All that matters to Putin is Russia. If a few pilots get shot down, they're just men, soldiers, patriots, expendable. I remember Turkiye shooting down a Russian helicopter. What did Putin do? Nothing. Keep relations with Turkiye manageable, or avenge the men by shooting down a Turkish helicopter? The latter didn't even cross Putin's mind. Eyes on the big picture, always: Mother Russia.
Or maybe Putin now has Wagner by the balls, so to speak. If Prigozhin wants to live, he might be required to show a little extra loyalty going forward.
Sooner or later, Russian oligarchs are brought to heel and their stuff is taken away. If they resist, they are killed. If they submit, they are allowed to take some of their stuff and have a pretty nice retirement.
Prigozyhyn was just another oligarch but with tanks so his forced retirement was a little more complicated. That's all this was.
Another theory. The best deception is one that appears to confirm the enemy's hopes. Watch the western media - it's all about how weak Putin is. Just one more push and the whole thing will collapse they're saying. Russia is winning the big war and wants the enemy to keep destroying itself by more self-ruing sanctions, more emptying out of its arsenals. As Napoleon might have said, encourage the enemy to keep making mistakes.
Most reasonable analysis by Serge. And yes, Patrick, I think this is always the key. Remembering that Russia's stated goals are to deplete Ukraine and NATO and that the attrition strategy of maintaining a neither boiling nor tepid but rather a long simmering war is the means of achieving those goals, the result of this episode is favorable for this strategy. That is, the best scenario for Russia is that the West is neither fully emboldened nor completely distraught but remains hopeful enough of victory to keep pouring its a resources into the war. It is a disaster from a spiritual and humanitarian point of view, Putin knows that it is a disaster from this point of view, hence his lamentations about Ukraine before and after the beginning of the war, but the Western elites are such and they have got themselves into such a bind that's it seems there is nothing that can be done except let this play out.
This was brilliant. However, I might suggest that writing after the fact, it's perhaps easier to dismiss Prigozhin's chances, and question whether a genuine coup might have been possible, if hawkish elements in the intelligence community, special forces and the ultranationalist right, seeing their opportunity to 'properly' prosecute the war, had acted accordingly. The fact that Wagner got as far as they did suggests Prigozhin did have collaborators in the right places.
It’s possible that he was led to believe his chances were better than they were. Fucked around and quickly found out. Decided that Putin was more reliable than his other friends. I imagine those friends are a bit nervous right now - if they exist.
Big Serge once again delivers like a pregnant woman.
Wagner is an affective fighting force but it needs to operate under the MoD and Prigos outbursts and insults to Shoigu have outlived their usefulness.
He is now an irritant and traitor who tried to plunge Russia in a crisis when facing an existential war.
Just last week, he said that Ukraine was not killing Donbas civilians and that the SMO was based on lies and the end game is to profit. He'd be naive to think Putin will forgive him. Prigo is a dead man walking
Unless he convinces Putin his words were all a ploy. In any case, it seems to me he’ll either have to demonstrate his loyalty going forward or end up dead.
@bigserge: Nigerian here. Just wanted to add a few thoughts of my own to your analysis.
In the African countries where Wagner is active, they have local support. For example, a monument was built in Central Africa Republic by a local sculptor to celebrate Wagner's successful fightback against Jihadist insurgents.
I monitor Russian Telegram Channels and I have heard some of the masked Wagner fighters in the Donbass region say that they wish to return to Africa where things are much easier.
Fact of the matter is that Wagner on the African continent had a free hand to operate with no oversight from Russian MOD at all, and only minimal supervision from Kremlin and the host African state.
So there is a deep resentment from Prigozhin and a faction of his fighters about the subjugation to dictates of Russian MOD in the Ukrainian Theatre of Operations.
In Bakhmut, Wagner could not simply plan and execute its own operations. It had to obey the dictates of Russian MOD, a military bureaucratic entity they did not particularly like or respect.
You can see how Prigohzin was going mad in Bakhmut about not getting the weapons they need.
It was not about whether the munitions were really enough. It was about the fact that Wagner could not get what they demanded upon request as would have been the case in any African nation where they were operating.
If Wagner troops asked the governments of Burkina Faso, Mali or Central Africa Republic to supply certain material to help the local counterinsurgency effort, they always got it without arguments. (Please note that host African countries do pay for some of the weaponry used by Wagner, although not all of it).
Prigozhin and the loyalist core of his fighters just could not adapt themselves to the situation in the SMO Zone in Ukraine. It was just too different from their African experience. Attempts to absorb Wagner into the regular Russian Army was the last straw. So they revolted against Russian MOD and the rest is history.
Yes, I think you're spot on about this. The operating environment in Ukraine is totally different than in Africa and Prigozhin could not adjust.
My article on Wagner in Africa (a bit old now, but still relevant):
https://sharpfocusafrica.substack.com/p/wagner-group-the-russian-state-and
Best synopsis I have read over the last few days.
counterinsurgency 4000 miles from moscow is quite diferent from an existerntial threat from the neocons 300 miles from moscow.
the controls are part of geopolitical amd military strategy.
wagner had a dispute with the program of war they should have shut up and lapsed their contract!
what is the russian penalty for high treason?
The big question now is what will happen with Wagner operations in Africa? If they continue, will they be under some "new management" (who?), or same (Prigozhin from Belarus?). If they fold or discontinue, then it is still huge win for Western powers - particularly the French would rejoice as Wagner squeezed them out from key playgrounds in francophone central / western Africa.
PS. If any historic analogy is to be given, Mussolini's "March on Rome" is much closer - and extends to reasons why Prigozhin failed and Mussolini succeeded, which is support of key holders of state, industrial, military, media powers. By the time Mussolini started his march on Rome, he had most of these on his side, while Prigozhin had essentially none. Not mentioned here, but I think big part was that Wagner-inclined media (telegram channels) got shut-down as the march was underway.
Wagner did not squeeze France out of the Francophone African States, the governments there with support from the local populace did that. Even if Wagner did not exist, French troops would have been kicked out of those particular countries where anti-French sentiment was raging.
Please note that majority of Francophone African nations continue to have warm relations with France and host its military bases. There are still 3000 French troops in those still existing military bases and an additional 3000 French troops are in other Francophone countries where France has no official military bases. In such countries, French troops share quarters with the local soldiers
What will become of Wagner forces currently stationed in some African countries (and Syria)?
I don't know. But as far as speculation goes, I guess Putin will behave true to his nature. Most likely, Wagner troops will be allowed to get on with their work of dealing with jihadist insurgents while a permanent solution is sought.
Whatever eventually becomes of Wagner in Belarus is likely to be reflected on Wagner in Africa.
In other words, if Putin let's the status-quo of Prigozhin maintaining control of the rump Wagner PMC in Belarus to stand then I see no reason why Prigozhin can't be allowed to keep control of Wagner in far flung Africa.
If on the other hand, Putin and Lukashenko decide to dissolve Wagner in Belarus then same fate awaits Wagner in Africa.
Contrary to what many think, Kremlin does not directly deploy Wagner to foreign nations. What actually happens is that a friendly nation asks Kremlin for Russian troops. Putin responds by recommending Wagner. Then that foreign nation awards a contract to Prigozhin with down payment. After that, Wagner appears.
I am going to do a substack article about this issue soon
Much appreciated! A very important and interesting subject!
No problem, I will put out the Wagner article over the weekend or early next week. I have just gathered all videos and other resources that will go into the Wagner article I am currently working on
I like your realistic analysis. Looking forward to reading your writings. good luck.
"the governments there with support from the local populace did that"
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Not false, but not true either. Wagner and the military factions that had not yet seized power lead a complex strategy of misinformation. This allowed the factions to seize power with some popular support, but whether Mali or Burkina, or CAR, it is an illusion to believe that the whole population would support Wagner. In Mali, half of the population in the regions that have been out of government control for a while are simply not part of the equation. In the other half of the country, there are many kinds of oppositions to the military government and to Wagner. And the more exactions are committed on civilian populations, the more resent grows. Despite the boastful claims of the new Malian rulers, everything points to a very fast degradation of security conditions for civilians since the departure of French forces. The official propaganda cannot hide this, because people are experiencing the effects directly.
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Regarding other Western African countries where French soldiers are still present, you have probably been aware that France recently announced plans to remove most of its soldiers. There is no longer a desire from France to sacrifice her resources for countries where governments are happy to spread hatred of France to cover their failures. Which is why those countries and France are now busy accelerating the training of local forces, as they will soon be expected to fence for themselves. t is most likely that some French military power will remain in Niger and in Ivory Coast for longer, but not in other countries. And even in those 2 countries, the number of French soldiers and the advanced equipment available will be much less significant than they are today.
I wonder if the current riots in France would curb Macron's regime appetite towards foreign wars. From perspective of internal French politics opposition parties will certainly hammer on the irony and hypocrisy of France "providing security" in Mali, when even suburbs of Paris go up in flames.
You're misinformed. Macron did not send troops to Mali, he actually inherited that. And as a matter of fact, he is the one who decided to pull French troops out of Mali. He also recently announced a serious scaling back of French military presence in many African countries, with residual concentrations in Ivory Coast and Niger to help prepare the military forces of regional countries to the expanding jihadi threat.
You may also have noted that Macron was the only Western leader who tried to engage Putin diplomatically to try and avoid war. He suffered from the lack of credibility that France has now in Russia's eyes, particularly following German acknowledgement that the Minsk Agreement were not a sincere move but only served to tricked Russia. While no French leader has voiced the same kind of things and France did not consider the Minsk Agreement to be trickery, this proved that France itself had no influence on NATO treachery and could not be taken seriously by Putin.
Nevertheless, to imagine that "Macron's regime", whatever that means, has appetite towards foreign wars, is seriously out of touch with facts.
Lukashenko has said that he wants Wagner to help build his army of 75,000 men to one of 500,000. That doesn't sound like Prigozhin will be kicked out anytime soon.
and I don't believe there were Russian aircraft shot down -
I suspect that Russia would like to pay back the West with the same coin. And getting Wagner back to Africa kicking the European neocolonial rule out of the continent would be a superb revenge. That's my bet for Wagner's near future.
Good points. But Prigozhin probably wasn't getting all of the weapons because he wasn't
following all of the 'rules' so to speak. There's no such thing as a free lunch - even though
Prigohzin looks like he wanted one. It's the power structure that dictates. And, much to Prigohzin's dismay, The Kremlin has a lot of power.
This is a serious, serious war. Nobody in the filed should be allowed to run rampant, or
make their own rules. If the chain of command breaks, the machine might break.
General Douglas MacArthur got too big for his britches in Korean in 1951 - So President
Truman fired him. MacArthur wanted to use tactical nukes along the Yalu Rivier vicinity.
President Truman reminded him of whose really the Commander in Chief.
It was General MacArthur who signed the Japanese Instrument of Surrender on behalf of
the Allies in WWII - he was also the Supreme Commander of the Pacific in that war. Men
can get too ambitious when they don't have the absolute power that they believe they
deserve - that goes for Prighozin as well.
In my view, this should make Russia stronger by getting rid of anything that can possibly
go rogue. Wagner was absolutely necessary in Bakhmut, but they're not unexpendable
anymore.
PS: Someone pointed out possible PTSD issues and think that should be considered.
These men are taking an enormous toll out in the field. I saw a video (taken towards
the end of Bakhmut) where a shell hit very close to Prigozhin's house / hideout.
Dust and other things were flying everywhere. Someone immediately called out to
Prigozhin and asked if he was alive - that's how close it was. That's just one thing
that we saw and I'm sure there's many things that we didn't. The culminative
toll (maybe more so for someone Prigozhin's age) must be very taxing.
Interesting point. What are you all thinking about the future of Wagner in Africa? Will they continue to operate independently or und the realm of the MOD? Thanks
I advise the reading of this article from South African media, explaining how Wagner has in fact become the real government of the CAR.
https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2023-06-27-wagner-mercenaries-have-entirely-captured-central-african-republic-the-sentry-report-finds/
Given the complete control they have of local authorities and institutions, it is certainly unwise to believe that a statue by a local artist indicates support from the local population. It may simply reflect obedience to the people who hold the rifle. Or support for a faction that sees its interest in offering the country's resources to Wagner, and that wouldn't care about the opinions of the larger population.
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Wagner was portrayed as very powerful by the military juntas in CAR or Mali, and now Burkina. But the failed adventure in Russia has shown that Wagner is a lot of hot air compared to actual military powers of strong and organised states. I think Wagner's reputation among those who opened their countries to the Russian PMC will soon dwindle sharply. In turn, I wouldn't be surprised in the military rulers of African countries seek direct involvement of Russia in a more official manner.
Thanks for dose of reality. What you may not know is that Shoigu is the most corrupt man in Russia and so well connected as to be impossible to remove from office.
Proof of that is....?
that is all part of what is so curious about it, though I would point out that Burkina Faso denied the presence of Wagner in their country as recently as May 5th.
Good comment. Insightful.
There cannot be civil peace whilst the branches fight the vine. Every citizen and every republic was de jure an equal if not de facto, in the USSR. And they were trying to make it so.
The ? rebellion was just one more fissiparous neurotic attempt to satisfy selfishness. This will repeat , without unity.
Putin is doing a BETTER job now. than Stalin could. But it's a hard job.
"You can see how Prigohzin was going mad in Bakhmut about not getting the weapons they need. It was not about whether the munitions were really enough. "
HE HAD ALL WEAPONS AND MUNITIONS!!!!!!!
2) saying that Wagner works independently in Africa is just PROPOSTEROUS man.
Wagner is a Kremlin TOOL PERIOD
I completely ignored all the news knowing full well all of it was narrative driven and I was going to be patient to wait for an analysis here.
I was not disappointed. Not only was the analysis outstanding, but fast in arriving.
Thank you.
So the WaPO, NY Times and Wall St Journal's breathless articles were all wrong????
Say it ain't so.
Now wondering why their "news" of the vaunted Ukrainian "spring offensive" has been muted?
Thanks, again, Serge for sober, adult analysis.
Not too surprising that US state media went all in on the message that ‘Putin is weak.’ And some people would still rather believe them than their own lying eyes. Having said that, wasn’t this an enormous gamble? I think that’s why narratives that it was all planned in advance spring up. But if you think about it, only the head of a mercenary army would have the nerve to do something like this. It does seem incredible that P got away with his head intact. But as they used to say, stay tuned!
Given Putins statements yesterday, I suspect his days are very limited. I suspect Putin is going to go after all the leaders of the "mutiny" in a very Russian way.
I suspect he will send a very clear message to all the contract mercenaries he uses, not to mess around with stuff like that.
I was always wondering why they were allowing P to whine so loosely to western media. Now I think we see they were doing a delicate dance to manage him out of being required.
That’s what I ended up doing after an hour of nail biting and reading Russian Zoomer Doomed Telegram channels
My thoughts exactly
I commented on another substack that this, in a way, would make a sequel to that terrific 2002 Russian war movie 'Kukushka' aka 'The Cuckoo'. I loved that movie! Everyone will speak in a different language so no one would understand what the hell is happening even though they need each other.
Thank you for this wonderful analysis, the most convincing I've read so far on Prighozin. I would love to read more often about the war in Ukraine.
Say what you will about Prigozyhyn: he caused the death of Russian servicemen, he definitely caused some kind of morale drop judging by the numerous minor tactical successes the Ukrainians have enjoyed today, and which may or may not snowball into something else. Unlikely, but this is war. He put his own priorities ahead of Russia's, in the face of an existential war which has a long way to run.
Despite that, I consider him an absolute legend. His story ended ignominiously but it was not so for most of it. I can't forget Soledar and Bakhmut, and how absolutely larger than life he was, free of any burdens or bounds. I consider it totally unsurprising that the Russian citizenry cheered wildly for Wagner AND Putin at the end of the rebellion; it remains a complicated relationship, and Russians seem to be still capable of having those as opposed to the boring binary West where everything is either "good" or "bad".
Further evidence that Russia really is Third Rome. This reminds me of the Roman Republic, with great men at the head of loyal armies vying for power. It shocks, confounds and frightens the bugman
he caused the death of Russian servicemen - NO EVIDENCE OF IT
burnt plane and helis are too questionable
Then why did he promise to pay blood money to the families? Wake tf up.
That could be part of the theatre. There are too many loose ends and I don't reckon the final word has been said about this.
Agreed. My brain is hurting from all the theories I have read or heard. And come to think of it, the Russians are being awfully quiet about the downed airmen. Were they killed or not? How many? What were their names? Honor them as usual, right?
The idea that Russia, which has been terrible at P.R. management throughout this war, when it has even tried to manage P.R. at all, would engage in an incredibly elaborate ruse going back months, a ruse which not only required all parties, including Russia's enemies, to play their parts perfectly, but also allowed Ukraine supporters to spin a huge, public, and comprehensive defeat into a victory, is all a bit too much.
If that's "The Plan" then Russia needs better plans or better planners.
A much simpler explanation - Prigozhin let success and fame go to his head, and didn't want to be swept aside. This would not be the first time that this has happened to someone. He wasn't shunted aside after previous performative stunts, because the Stavka and Putin didn't want to make a martyr out of the man, turn a loudmouth with no filter into The War Hero Who Was Sacked For Telling The Truth. The fact that Prigozhin shoots his mouth off continually, and says all sorts of inconsistent things helps him here. Those who are against the war can cherry pick a statement or two and say that represents Progozhin's beliefs. Those who favor escalation can say that is The Real Prigozhin. Those who have some other idea can probably find something that the man said at one time for them to like and decide that everything else is a headfake. Sort of like Donald Trump.
How the hell did he calculate the odds of winning ... anything? What was his objective? Take over the Russian state? Never in the cards. If he thought it was, then I gotta believe lotsa people were whispering in his ears. In that case, Putin’s wringing all the intel out of him as we speak. From where I sit, admittedly without much real information, it just looks boneheaded. Hence the attraction of the psyop hypothesis. Note that psyops wouldn’t be worth much if they were easy to see.
Honestly, like a lot of things people do, I'm far from convinced that there was a real "plan", just a series of spur of the moment decisions, each leading to "so now, what?"
I have watched a number of videos of Prigozhin when he raved and gesticulated wildly in a manner that reminded me of watching some of my rowdier friends in their younger days at the height of a days long cocaine and/or adderral bender. Or alternatively, remind me of a manic episode by an exgf with bipolar disorder when she'd go off her lithium.
It seems like Prigozhin was expecting to repeat his success in Crimea 2014. At that time, a pretty prosecutor from Kiev, Natalya "Nyash Myash" Poklonskaya had rallied the local police authorities to ally with the regional government and not Kiev. The local population overwhelmingly welcomed intervention from Russia and rejected Kiev.
Putin sent in "the polite green men", a combination of state forces and private security people who would later be known as the Wagner Group. Many of these were already in place at the Russian naval base in Sevastopol and as private security throughout the territory. These forces numbered around 20,000 I believe. Their task was to neutralize Ukrainian army forces of around 60,000 army and navy troops.
Initially the pro-Russian forces were outnumbered 3 to 1. However, many of the Ukrainian troops were Crimeans hostile to the new regime. 20,000 of them were persuaded to sign on with the Russian army and navy for better pay and conditions. 20,000 of them simply deserted and returned to civilian life. The loyal Ukrainian troops were now outnumbered 2 to 1 in a hostile environment. They wisely accepted safe passage back to Ukraine, with barely a shot fired.
Prigozhin may have gambled that he could repeat that feat banking on Wagners popular celebration in movies (Best in Hell and Redemption) and music videos (Summer and Crossbows).
That's all I got.
The little green men were the special paratrooper regiments I believe (or Airborn whatever you call them) not Wagner. And Prigozhin is an uneducated, incompetent idiot, with clear mental issues, just today he said his march on Moscow was a master lesson on how things should have been handled in Ukraine. Really Piggy? The Ukrainians would have just let you drive all the way to Kiev and let you take TikToks for free? Freaking idiot. Some military bloggers even repeat the same, saying how Ukraine can easily win by just attacking at the Russian border and driving to Moscow too. wow, what geniuses, I'm sure nobody thought of THAT idea before social media influencers. Just take some tanks and drive them the enemy capital, a move even Moltke, Napoleon, or Manstein couldn't ever envision.
There were regular army units in Crimea, but PMCs were a component of the Green men. None of the forces wore regimental badges so it is difficult to say what the percentage of PMCs to army was.
I remember the green men specifically were said to be the elite paratroopers, the best of the Russian forces.
It is discouraging to see that the Russian media is as capable of creating false narratives and setting them in stone as Western presstitutes. The Russian media has set in stone the narrative that Prigozhin, the commander of the Wagner Group which has done most of the fighting in the liberation of Donbass, launched an “armed rebellion” against Putin despite the fact that there is no evidence of an armed rebellion.
The so-called “coup” has many curious aspects and raises many neglected questions.
I acknowledge that Prigozhin had become increasingly displeased with the Russian military command. The Kremlin had not addressed the feud between Prigozhin and the Russian military brass. The Kremlin’s failure to resolve the differences is the most likely cause of events mischaracterized as a coup. For Prigozhin, the final straw was his belief that an encampment of his troops was hit by a missile from the rear, that is, from Russia, not from Ukraine. Perhaps Prigozhin was given false information for the purpose of worsening the relations between the main fighting force and the Russian high command during a Ukrainian “counter offensive.” Perhaps a missile strike occurred, but has a different explanation.
The situation exploded when the Russian Ministry of Defense denied Prigozhin’s accusation when the proper response would have been to send an investigatory team to establish the fact and if a missile strike did occur to determine the source.
Well he certainly seems to have bet that the worst outcome would not be a quick bullet in the head.
Well stated Serge. He read his press clippings and believed them. And probably has some PTSD issues. There are no huge hidden plots here.
How would this clown acquire PTSD? That requires going into combat. He is not a soldier. He has zero military background.
Yes, but undoubtedly both the western forces and the Russians had some information in advance. How did those actors play into the drama? Was his recklessness encouraged? Does the quick roll up indicate that his plan was countered much earlier than it seems?
And the treasonous Khordokovsky's dormant tg channel that was set up in January and activated two hours in to the event?
There was definitely foreknowledge going back quite some time.
Brilliant analysis.
Prigozhin was a businessman resisting nationalisation. Usually, such people do not have tanks so they resist by lobbying Parliament. He had tanks so he chose a different path. Same idea though.
No doubt the Russian state going forward will be careful not to contract out making war. Although the whole PMC “thing” clearly had benefits at the time.
Your US comparison is spot on too. We ought not to gloat in the west. France and the ongoing “protests” there provide another comparator too.
A great piece ,also showing the pathetic state that the Western world's media have fallen to.
Prighozin is MERCENARY somi would not be surprised if he was a,so promised cash.Whether he can spend it is another question.
Another commentator has compared this with the failed 1961 coup against De Gaulle by a quartet of Generals, lasted about the same time 4 or 5 days I think
Keep going Serge, you know your stuff
What do these PEOPLE have in common?Prigozhin,Zelenky,Kolomoisky,Wolfwowitz,
Yellen,Blinken,Soros,Solovyov,Epstein,Bernanke,Greenspan, Berezovsky,Deripaska,
Mikhelson,Fridman, Prokhorov, Khan,Abramovich,Moshe Kantor,Mamut,Nesis,
Rotenberg,Shefler,Yushvaev,Abramov,Vekselberg,
Moshkovich,Boris Rotenberg...so ON and On
Bloody Norwegians!
Shellfish allergies?
ALMOST RIGHT!.....It is SELFish allergies..kkkkkk
AFK Another Fucking K--e
Jeff..don't call them K--e...That is what they want....The little german asshole have given them all they need..They are not like rats( there aren't that many of them),they are not stupid and worst of all THEY ARE PACIENT! Imagine for 2000 years..I don't know how many generations..30..40..have listen to their parents say..WAIT LITTLE JACOB..WE WILL GO BACK TO THE PROMISE LAND!....And look where they are now!!From Rome to Paris, from Paris to London,from London to Washington..in the 90's they got a hold of Moskow..I don't know how they are dealing with China but by the way Chinese just want to do deals I don't think they are to far behind!
Thank you. Your are right.
They are smart, intelligent and deceptive. It will not happen again.
Alexsander Solzhenitsyn described them as "Rootless Cosmopolitans"
Much more descriptive and appropriate. having no alligence to any country.
A question: Was the Kremlin aware of Prigozhin's plot before the fact? If it wasn't (which I doubt) why wasn't it? The ever forthright and truthful Americans claim they knew in advance. Substacker Simplicius the Thinker notes that even bloggers like Wargonzo had recently brought up the indelicate subject of a march on Moscow with Prigozhin. These events start to look less like the machinations of an impenetrable cabal than a coming attraction teased openly on Telegram.
For the sake of argument, let's assume the Kremlin knew enough to consider a coup attempt by Prigozhin a real possibility. Why not preempt it?
It's not impossible to come up with reasons the Kremlin might entertain doing nothing. By letting Prigozhin draw first, they might discredit a charismatic loose cannon without instigating a public or, worse, military backlash by a preemptive arrest; rein in a popular but unruly organization and place it under the explicit authority of the defense ministry; and coax adversarial intelligence operations to come out in the open. Under the circumstances it might look like a least-bad option.
There is another dimension, perhaps serendipitous, perhaps by design, to consider. By swiftly and categorically crushing Prigozhin's gambit, the Russian state administered a dose of unpleasant reality to a long-cherished neocon belief. The Putin government is not a house of cards. It will not collapse from within. To the contrary, the deadly buffoonery of this interlude should be, in a saner world, as much a wakeup call as the stillborn counteroffensive by NATO's Ukrainian proxies.
Should be, but won't, at least to the revanchist, reality-proof ideological vanguard with clubhouses in D.C. and Brussels. They will persist till the end of time, which, if they have their way, may come sooner than any of us would like. But as their harebrained hopes and illusions—the march to Mariupol, the Moscow maidan—fall away one by one, some of the West's fair-weather followers may, just may, begin to come to their senses.
Not to venture too far into the camp of omni-competence, but could it be that the Russian government let Prigozhin make his play within something like a political security or crumple zone, wagering it would safely—relatively safely—expose not only Prigozhin's perfidy but the West's follacious [sic] assumptions?
Maybe that's just more lemonade. If it is, I hope the acumen and expertise of Big Serge and others, however marginal they are for now, help bring some of that sweet citrus to the blinkered. It's up to them to drink.
Excellent comment. There’s a non zero chance Putin knew something in advance. Or this was the shortest, least chaotic coup attempt in history.
I'm surprised you've gone to press so quickly on this as I think anyone who says they know for sure what's going on in Russia right now is lying to themselves and lying to his or her audience. But that's a cool-headed weighing up of the evidence and drawing of conclusions thereon. Quite where events will lead to in the next seven days appears to be anybody's guess at the moment and you're wise enough not to make any wild predictions, unlike the terminally wrong western twitterati.
Essentially Prigozhin is a modern day pirate. I'm sure there must be historical parallels in terms of British pirate captains (or 'privateers') in the Caribbean turning on shipping belonging to their own king. He is a traitor and that's all he is. His men get the credit for Soledar/Bakhmut, sure. Not him.
He's a pirate who found himself in an ultimate stakes poker game and he lost. I do suspect he genuinely wanted to force Putin into reversing the absorption of Wagner into the Russian military. That may very well be the only motivation for this act of folly. I don't get any sense of him wanting to cause the unravelling of the Russian state. The 'protest march' was simply, as you suggest, designed to shock Putin into maintaining the status quo. The very fact that Prigozhin appears to be still at large is evidence that he does carry enough power to cause the Russia government/military significant problems, sufficient for them to back off and kick the Prigozhin can down the road.
But if the Belarus exile story is accurate, that's all Putin has achieved: take the country-destabilising problem and move it next door. That's just buying time. It's also handing over a country-destabilising problem to his next door neighbour, Lukashenko, who has far less resources than Russia to be able to deal with Prigozhin and elements of Wagner loyal to him, which I'd guess is a hell of a lot of them, but we'll see over the coming week just how many that is. If you're Lukashenko, do you want Prigozhin and say 25,000 Wagnerites stationed on bases in Belarus? I don't believe Prigozhin could be bought off by the USA to try to coup Russia but if they offered him an amnesty and vast amounts of money to try to coup Belarus? It's such an obvious ploy that I would almost be surprised now if it didn't happen. Victoria Nuland will already be working on it. The presence of Russian military with nuclear weapons is a potentially world-ending level complication.
Any dismissal of the 'protest march' being a psyop must also dismiss Prigozhin's anti-Shoigu rants going back months as being psyops. With hindsight it would be easy to identify those rants as a precursor to the events of Friday and Saturday. The decision was made to absorb Wagner into the Russian army – rightly so – and this set off a chain of events that in some way was inevitable.
Let's not forget that Prigozhin had threatened to pull out of Bakhmut around the time it finally fell. I can only imagine there was no safe way for Wagner to do so without risking massive loss of life.
Russia does need to move to a totally integrated military model as quickly as possible, for their sakes. There is way too much of a medieval England vibe, with the king (Putin) relying on certain powerful barons (Prigozhin, Kadyrov) to supply their men to go off and bash some 'infidels'. Integrating Wagner had to happen and because it had to happen some degree of internal conflict was inevitable; it was just a question of where the conflict would lie on the spectrum of criticality.
I wouldn't downplay the seriousness of events. Putin has not won here. He has merely kicked the can down the road and passed the problem on to a neighbour very vulnerable to western meddling. It's less of a bomb disposal and more of a chucking a grenade to Uncle Sasha and saying "Catch".
Assuming Prigozhin can be neutered successfully, removing the risk of him acting against the Russian military, Russia has still lost what appears to be their most successful go-forward troops. Disbanding Wagner and dispersing the men into other units seems unlikely to get the best out of those men, particularly if they are aggrieved about the decision, less lucrative contracts, etc.
It will have a negative impact on the Russian war effort, no doubt. But did Russia have any choice other than to integrate Wagner? I believe not. Bakhmut becomes even more fascinating. Prigozhin's and Wagner's last battle? Was there some element of Wagner being sacrificed, weakening Prigozhin's position? Was he right that Shoigu was playing games with munitions supplies? Both sides have been guilty of sacrificing units, I believe, and Ukraine appears far more guilty of it than Russia. If reports are to be believed, Ukraine pulled out a lot of their most capable units from Bakhmut and sent in barely capable 'cannon fodder', effectively sacrificing thousands of young men. Generals would say "This is war", I suppose, but to a civilian it feels morally repugnant.
This latest turn of events underline what a remarkable leader Putin is. He doesn't allow his emotions to rule his head and in that respect any desire by the west to see Putin replaced must stem from people 'blessed' with incredibly poor instincts, leading to incredibly reckless foreign policy. All that matters to Putin is Russia. If a few pilots get shot down, they're just men, soldiers, patriots, expendable. I remember Turkiye shooting down a Russian helicopter. What did Putin do? Nothing. Keep relations with Turkiye manageable, or avenge the men by shooting down a Turkish helicopter? The latter didn't even cross Putin's mind. Eyes on the big picture, always: Mother Russia.
Or maybe Putin now has Wagner by the balls, so to speak. If Prigozhin wants to live, he might be required to show a little extra loyalty going forward.
Sooner or later, Russian oligarchs are brought to heel and their stuff is taken away. If they resist, they are killed. If they submit, they are allowed to take some of their stuff and have a pretty nice retirement.
Prigozyhyn was just another oligarch but with tanks so his forced retirement was a little more complicated. That's all this was.
Another theory. The best deception is one that appears to confirm the enemy's hopes. Watch the western media - it's all about how weak Putin is. Just one more push and the whole thing will collapse they're saying. Russia is winning the big war and wants the enemy to keep destroying itself by more self-ruing sanctions, more emptying out of its arsenals. As Napoleon might have said, encourage the enemy to keep making mistakes.
Yes except the western media would have said the same no matter what happened.
Most reasonable analysis by Serge. And yes, Patrick, I think this is always the key. Remembering that Russia's stated goals are to deplete Ukraine and NATO and that the attrition strategy of maintaining a neither boiling nor tepid but rather a long simmering war is the means of achieving those goals, the result of this episode is favorable for this strategy. That is, the best scenario for Russia is that the West is neither fully emboldened nor completely distraught but remains hopeful enough of victory to keep pouring its a resources into the war. It is a disaster from a spiritual and humanitarian point of view, Putin knows that it is a disaster from this point of view, hence his lamentations about Ukraine before and after the beginning of the war, but the Western elites are such and they have got themselves into such a bind that's it seems there is nothing that can be done except let this play out.
This was brilliant. However, I might suggest that writing after the fact, it's perhaps easier to dismiss Prigozhin's chances, and question whether a genuine coup might have been possible, if hawkish elements in the intelligence community, special forces and the ultranationalist right, seeing their opportunity to 'properly' prosecute the war, had acted accordingly. The fact that Wagner got as far as they did suggests Prigozhin did have collaborators in the right places.
It’s possible that he was led to believe his chances were better than they were. Fucked around and quickly found out. Decided that Putin was more reliable than his other friends. I imagine those friends are a bit nervous right now - if they exist.
Big Serge once again delivers like a pregnant woman.
Wagner is an affective fighting force but it needs to operate under the MoD and Prigos outbursts and insults to Shoigu have outlived their usefulness.
He is now an irritant and traitor who tried to plunge Russia in a crisis when facing an existential war.
Just last week, he said that Ukraine was not killing Donbas civilians and that the SMO was based on lies and the end game is to profit. He'd be naive to think Putin will forgive him. Prigo is a dead man walking
Unless he convinces Putin his words were all a ploy. In any case, it seems to me he’ll either have to demonstrate his loyalty going forward or end up dead.