Obviously the attacks on Russian rear assets wont really help Ukraine, thats not what the strikes are about. The focus on hitting Russia strategic assets in Crimea and other areas, its Navy, Air Force Bases, Long range Bombers, just recently even its early warning nuclear Radar, are all things that benefit the West, not Ukraine. What we're seeing with those strikes is the West using the little time and the free hand they have to decrease Russia capability where it, meaning US/NATO has concerns about in a future war against Russia. That's why we will see these big ticket item strikes increase over the next few months, not to help Ukraine, but to help the US and NATO. The publicity is just a bonus.
What scares me is that Washington seems to be trying to whittle away Russia's defences against a strategic nuclear attack. If that goes too far, the Russians will be forced to choose between surrender and a preemptive counterattack.
Disagree. Modern nuclear weapons aren’t the massive 20-40 MT bombs we used to have in the 60ies. They’re smaller, around 1 MT.
But Russia is such a vast country that a few dozen nukes wouldn’t have the same horrific effect it would have on far more tightly packed and centralized Europe or the US.
On top of that, Russian nuclear weapons are modern and far more advanced than the decades old American models.
A British submarine recently tried AND FAILED to test launch a ballistic missile. Twice in a row.
The problem is that the Russians might resort to Tactical Nuclear weapons in the European land mass avoiding a Strategic Exchange with the USA and the ones that get fried would be Western and Eastern Europeans. Millions will die while the two main powers will eventually come to an agreement to stop hostilities and let the Europeans die on the Vine. Sort of in the part of the Europeans of Dumb and Dommer,
Doing so would be a godsend to the United States. Russian impotence would be on full display, any moral high ground Russia enjoyed would be gone forever, the world would stop talking about Israel's crimes, and the door would be open to using nuclear weapons on Iran, for example.
Not fair, but fair ain't got nothing to do with it.
Anyway, europeans are congenital ass-lickers. Those familiar with Looney Tunes may recall the little yappy dog that follows Spike The Bulldog around.
Does being vaporised count as "losing their perches"? Bear in mind that some of them may honestly believe in The Rapture - and that they would be swept to heaven rather than the other place where they manifestly belong.
I am reminded of the joke about Petro Poroshenko when he dies and approaches the Pearly Gates with a vast amount of luggage, including tons of gold bars and jewelry. After a brief and slightly acrimonious conversation, St. Peter directs our hero to the Other Place. Following the universe's longest elevator ride, Poroshenko reaches the Other Place, where the Devil greets him warmly 8-) and offers him cocktails before he settles in to the lake of molten basalt. Suddenly Poroshenko exclaims in annoyance, "Oh bother - I left all my luggage at the Pearly gates". "No problem", replies his genial host; I'll send some apprentice demons up to get them for you.
Finding the Pearly Gates firmly closed due to the unholy hour, the demons - reluctant to return empty-handed and face the Boss's fury - try to climb over the wall into the Eternal City. Noticing them, one saint remarks to another, "Surely that's a record. Poroshenko's only been in Hell for 45 minutes, and already we're getting refugees".
The attacks on strategic assets like early warning radars are an attempt by Ukraine to get Russia to escalate the war in a way that will draw combat troops from NATO into the conflict.
No, I don't think so. It's true what you say, but I think those attacks are part of the long term strategy for NATO involvement. NATO wanted this war: it was its wet dream, so taking out critical defense infrastructure such as the nuclear radars looks (in isolation) like a random blow by Ukraine. In fact all targets are likely selected by NATO personnel, the buttons pressed by NATO personnel - in short, NATO's proxy war is getting real and hotter. Like I said: they have been wanting this since Yeltsin was ousted.
Personally, if I was Russia, that specific attack would have garnered an absolute response, something brutal and vital that the west couldn't avoid or deny. That response didn't happen, and my fear is that the neo-con / neo-lib two wings one bird worldview will see this as another sign of Russian weakness, and so push further.
The West, the US in particular, needs to feel some acute pain for its actions. I don't think Russia will attack the US mainland directly, but the US has 800 bases worldwide. Some of those need levelled, and everyone sent home in body-bags. Sorry, that sounds brutal and uncaring, but in truth I think that's the only sort of message those warmongers in Washington will ever understand.
"...and everyone sent home in body-bags....that sounds brutal..."
Nah, not brutal at all, we're talking about war criminal scum. US/UK military personnel are basically mercenaries. They are in it for the weekly pay, they aren't protecting their country and have a fascist mindset. Kill them all.
Captain Ibrahim Traoré president of Burkino Faso has united his neighbors and stuck up the middle finger to the communist West. Yankland has Airbase 201 in Niger which currently has severe restrictions on operations with the threat of total eradication if Yankland really pisses of the locals.
Yankland is 34.7 Trillion in debt and has a GDP to debt ratio of 131% and rising.
Traditionally countries have defaulted at 130%.
The ONLY reason the Petrodollar still exists is because of BRICS+ policies lead by ...... You guessed it Mr. Putin.
I am of the opinion that the planned Agenda 2030 just might not happen.
BRICs countries are moving away from the USD as reserve currency. Most of the trade between Russia and China is in Yuan and Rubles. Russia is selling oil in other currencies because of the sanctions.
U.S. real GDP is less than 50% of claimed. China and Mexico have 80% of former U.S. industrial capacity. U.S. Government is 42%, Imputed Rent is 8%, Services including Financial Skimming, bloated Medical, the Internet, etc make up most of the rest.
Yet.. the Narrative, story, fiction, lie Sector is Red Hot.
Ukraine believes anything they do to strike in Russia can somehow solve their current problems, or hopefully get NATO to send troops. So maybe the lies the US and they themselves tell them are something along those lines, like the early warning radar was justified by Ukraine as being something that could see their planes and missiles (which by most experts on the subject was complete crap since the radar wasn't used like that)
But considering the attacks are directed by, and possible even managed directly, by the US and NATO (the target selection, identification, surveillance is all from the US AWACs and Satellites) I have no doubt this was part of the US both testing their own future strike options to blind the Russians, and to decrease their capability in the short to medium term.
I have no doubt that the US is deeply involved in hitting the Russian early warning radars. Our government is looking for a reason to enter the war directly. A big Russian escalation might provide their casus belli. And, thanks to the War Powers Act, they don't even need Congress to commit troops.
We avoided direct conflict with the USSR through the Cold War. Why we're courting war with Russia now is beyond my simple abilities.
Given the many statements made by the kike whore Victoria Nuland who started this whole sitshow with the queer Kenyan your so-called leaders are doing everything they can to provock WW III.
That kike owned traitor Trump will change no thing whatsoever.
Avoided for a time you mean, the US has been obsessed with breaking the MAD dilemma. Its been in constant pursuit of both complete defense against nuclear strikes, and its ambition of having a first strike capability that would somehow prevent a second strike retaliation by its enemy.
Russia has already stated that under some foreseen circumstances that they wish to avoid they may be forced to eradicate all the Western suveillence satellites.
Basically if they take out the satillites it will be in conjunction with a major nuclear strike.
The Collective communist West just keeps on a pushing.
That assumes that there will be a NATO, or for that matter, much population left in North America and Western Europe to intervene. This is madness, seemingly designed to instigate a full scale nuclear exchange...not that Iosyf Bidenko cares about USA one bit.
Nope. Ukraine now knows there is no hope of that. It is still insisting on these strikes as the means of fomenting internal rebellion in Russia, rewarding the west that way.
I made a comment on Simplicus yesterday, taking up points made by others, that this is really two wars. One is a ground attrition war which Ukraine is on the verge of losing catastrphically. At current rates of attrition/replacements I estimate by the end of August there will be a collapse. The second war is a high tech long range war waged against Russian strategic assets using rebadged NATO personnel and using NATO wepons and targetting etc, to achieve NATO aims. It has nothing to do with Ukraine's war per se. I speculated that as the West realises Ukraine has lost its war, this NATO escalation is an attempt to create conditions where Russia will seek a ceasefire. However if not, it [like wily coyote] allows NATO to directly engage Russian targets of importance. Apparently this approach has minimal risk....
That argument works if these strikes really do that. But they do not, not at the moment. if they did, Russia would step the operation up to war with the west directly. That would bring a wider western defeat so much closer in time, as opposed to your long range western victory.
Or unleash the mother of terrorist campaign against the Civilian infrastructure in the West using proxies with of course full deniability. Bridges power plants tunnels EMP weapons detonated in key areas such as main electrical distribution centers. Our infrastructure is our weak point and fairly easy to cripple.
It is embarrassing to have such an unserious clown as Blinken as a senior official of the US government. The trouble with unserious people in a situation like this is that they make unserious decisions like putting combat troops into the war. If that happens companies making body bags will be a good investment.
its the trend of the new generation of Western politicians and diplomats (as one person calls them the Managerial Class), they're childish, naïve, quixotic nearly fanatical in their neo-liberal faith, yet think themselves geniuses. They talk and act like spoiled teenagers, they use things like twitter or Tiktok to post memes and sarcastic gotchas like the average redditor, they even act like that in state press briefings and when meeting foreign officials. They have more in common with Instagram influencers and ecelebs than they do with government officials.
I'd say the late 70s or 80s were the time when the US managerial classes begin to look like amateurs and time-servers.
I'm not sure why that particular point in time was significant. One possibility is that it became possible during that era to become fantastically wealthy in just a few years as a result of holding one job. So leadership roles became a tempting target for people who just wanted vast amounts of money and nothing else. Rather than being held by people who worked their way up through the ranks at their firm and had an interest in the firm, it's business, and its products, they began to be occupied by lawyers and MBAs who parachuted in from elsewhere, did a bunch of shortsighted stuff over a period of a year or two, got their stock, and headed for the hills. The recent CEOs of Boeing over the last 15 years are a case in point.
Once your society is being run by a few thousand people of this description, you can imagine that things begin to really change.
good question. I suppose it follows the general direction Western society itself has moved towards these past two decades. You can blame multiple factors I suppose, from the lack of proper education, the effects of mass media and entertainment, the rise of social media ect... I don't really have the answer, that's the job of sociologists.
They are also characterized by their inability to separate the symbolic and the substance. (I don't want to say "fact" and "fiction" because that's not quite true.). Symbols are potentially important, but only after the basic needs are met: if you pull out tens of thousands of troops from the front to help film a propaganda film (apparently, this is what Goebbels pulled off for the movie Kolberg in 1944 or 1945.), well, that's stupid. (Although, by that time, one would imagine some tens of thousands of additional men staying on the front wouldn't have done the Germans much good either, I suppose.). In 1945, Goebbels was a nutjob, but apparently, in 2024, he was the prophet.
The unserious clown is very close to achieving the commencement of strategic (even if conventional) bombing of core Russian territory without Russia evaporating DC, or even anything in Europe in response.
In effect reducing the largest nuclear power in the world to mid-1990s Yugoslavia, without firing a single shot openly and without losing a single strategic asset in the process.
That would be a remarkable success for anyone in his position.
They can’t be objective Ithey think Russia will save them from the wef neoliberal borg Consuming the planet Nobody likes it really and Russia/china the last hope for humanity and to make the west act like normal countries. Putin’s not up for the job and they can’t see it
The third world is especially in entranced by Putin guys like Pepe Escobar nearly drool when talking about him
The best way Russia could stop USA missiles from striking Moscow is a “Punitive Strike Israel” policy. They own the USA, Neocons and Zionists, and Jewish Banking Mafia.
I hope Russia has nukes reserved specifically for hawaii, new zealand and any other assorted remote locations these bitch-made “elites” think they can sit out a global nuclear war.
Israel is not the center of power. Israel is the middle eastern military outpost of the Jewish led bankster cartel. The cartel itself is decentralized between London, New York & a few European locations.
As you note- "they" own/control America & the "west"- including the western financial system- their crown jewel and the source of most of their power/control.
Agreed. Rothschild established the Israel fiefdom. I do not doubt that there are formal positions for rule of each USA state and major cities. Druglords and mafias have explicit territories. These territories are fought over among lower vassals. Arizona and John McCain was ruled by the Seagrams Jews. Trump is owned by numerous Jews, his largest patron being Sheldon Adelson, mafia casino owner and Israel first dual citizen.
Concerning is the assignment of Jews/Neocons to Americans of influence like Alex Jones (meathead). These handlers certainly have control files, blackmail material.
One does not simply become the “Real Estate Mogul of Mordor” through honest dealings. Good to hear handler Adelson is dead. So Trump is not a crypto-Neocon now? Trump’s one job during his next term in office: Get hicks to die for Israel for the tenth time. Believe me, I am more conservative than you.
Oh, I am not AT ALL a “conservative”, so that will be an easy mark.…
Nor am I a “librul”, no matter what Roosh Limp Bough might have said.
I am an asshole who refuses to “go along to get along”. I actually look at the shit coming down the sewer pipe and decide for myself, one turd at a time.
So fuck all you either/or, black/white cocksuckers, the universe is fucking grey and you'd best decide whether you would like it to be darker or lighter.
THAT is a wonderful 'outside the box' idea! the KOY- Kike Owned Yankland or any of its NATO puppets provide means to strike inside Russia, Russia strikes the kike in its stolen land.
Brilliant.
Solves two problems at once, Western agression and the genocide of the Palestinian people.
Madmax had Master-Blaster as a rival. This was a midget strapped to the back of a retarded oaf. The midget commanded the oaf. Such is the parasitic relationship between USA and Jews.
I don't know how old you are, but the choice of song (I'm told) is the height of unawareness. Imagine what it is like to be a mother, friend, aunt, sister, daughter or wife of a Ukrainian man right now and this is in your nation's capital. Was Nero this cruel?
“Rockin in the Free World” was a hit for Neil Young in the mid 80s. One of those songs that casual listeners assumed was a big rah-rah patriotic ode but anyone paying attention to the lyrics recognized as a bitter denunciation of the decline of the west. “We got a thousand points of light for the homeless man, got a kinder, gentler machine gun hand”.
Perfect irony that Blinken would miss the fact that the song denounces warmongers like him.
“Born in the USA” was a huge hit for Bruce Springsteen at the same time as “Rockin in the Free World”. It was also considered a big patriotic anthem while actually being about the aftermath of the Vietnam war and the way it ruined the lives of the conscripts who fought in it.
Bit like face masks during the other globalist elite's belligerent operation. Certain individuals became millionaires over night for supplying sub-standard masks.
>The problem for Ukraine is that they tend to maniacally focus on token “big ticket” items that do not ameliorate their broader strategic crisis. License to hurl ATACMs at targets inside Russia is not a panacea for Ukraine’s bigger problem.
With all due respect, this is delusional thinking.
The point of firing ATACMS and Storm Shadows into pre-war Russia is fourfold:
1) Destroy air defense units and soften up Russia for further strikes. This will be quite successfully done, as evidenced by the carnage of S-400s now in Crimea. And we saw the absolute red line being crossed the other day with the strike on the EW radar in Armavir. What happens when "Ukraine" is allowed to take out the one in Kaliningrad?
2) Start destroying the MIC and critical infrastructure. This too will be quite successfully done with saturation strikes. And Ukraine has shown no qualms about hitting where it should be hitting and it really hurts, unlike Putin's not-war. E.g. Ukraine did recently hit a 750-kV substation inside Russia, after the Kremlin has stubbornly refused to shut down Ukraine for more than two years now, for god knows what reasons
3) Completely humiliate and discredit Russia and the Kremlin. The latter in the eyes of the Russian people, who will be wondering what the hell their government is doing while they are being bombed and it does not respond. The former in the eyes of the world. Who has NATO been bombing with impunity historically? Weak semi-failed states that can't defend themselves. If Russia does not respond with overwhelming force, then it automatically enters the ranks of those countries
4) Most critically important, this will accustom Russia defenses to not see SRBMs and cruise missiles as launch-on-warning threats. I can't stress how insane it is for any Russian government to agree to that. Because if you don't fire nukes back when the first such salvo is sent towards you because you assume it is conventional, then one day a big salvo will come your way that will not be conventional. But you will again assume it is and not launch before it has disabled or at least sufficiently blunted your second strike response. And it doesn't even matter if you have Poseidons and SSBNs and ICBMs in Siberia, it is enough for the enemy to think they can do a first strike for unacceptable consequences to be ensured.
All of this must absolutely never be allowed to happen. And I simply don't understand the nonchalant attitude towards of so many otherwise thoughtful observers and analysts.
Do you have a substantial refutation of what I said or all you know is to accuse people of being trolls and NAFOids simply because your whole identity is tied to Putin being this ominscient omnipotent omnibenelovent grand strategist that so many cargo cultists like you have created an idol out of instead of the weak indecisive and incompetent president that the enormous, quarter-century-worth-of body of evidence that we have to evaluate him on clearly points to?
Who lost Ukraine in the first place? Putin.
Who is about to have Russia-proper bombed by NATO missiles daily without responding, after already having Crimea bombed that way daily, and after already having Russia-proper being bombed daily by drones and Czech missiles and French glide bombs? Putin.
Who is then going to preside either over the dissolution of the RF or total nuclear war, because those are the only two outcomes left at this point given the successful achievement of the milestone in the previous paragraph? Putin.
Полагаю ВВП просто не хочет ядерной войны, и ищет другие способы решения вопроса. Как показала практика он их находит, либо создаёт. ваше стремление к суициду ничем кроме глупости объяснить не могу.
Look, when the other side is hitting your strategic early warning systems and depleting your air defense, whether you want nuclear war or not is largely irrelevant -- the other side is obviously preparing for a first strike.
How exactly are you going to stop them by turning the other cheek again and again?
Ходят слухи, что Воронеж модернизирован и здание в которое попали уже не имеет такого значения. Безусловно, снарядов может быть мало, очень мало,или мало но больше уже не унести, ну так и производится их больше чем США и Европой вместе взятыми в разы . И будет производится как минимум до 2030. Я их никак не собираюсь останавливать. Я обычный законопослушный налогоплательщик. Каждый гражданин России оплачивая НДС и НДФЛ работает на свой ВПК.
Given that people still chose Crimea as...a holiday destination, I think Crimea strike successes are probably overblown. I mean, AFU wasted a huge stockpile of SCALP/Storm Shadow missiles and failed to meaningfully constrain Russian logistics in the south, which still is heavily Crimea-dependant. As for S-400 -- well, it happens in near-peer environment. After all, multiple Patriot and S-300 batteries have been destroyed in March-April near Kharkov. So what?
What Ukraine can do and likely will do, if allowed to shoot at pre-war RF territory would likely be terror strikes against Belgorod, because it boosts Ukrainian morale & helps keep the populace engaged. I mean this is how they have been using scarce MLRS and tactical missile resources agains Belgorod. They chose not to attack the staging areas, but to shoot at a civilian buildings. It is also much easier to do -- you don't have to be that precise to hit a house or square. So Electronic warfare will not help.
Putin is essentially a pacifist. Which is usually a good trait, but not in times of war, faced by an enemy who will go to any lengths to destroy you. The first year of the 'not-war' I understand in hindsight, it was to destroy Ukraine's army and fighting abilities. Succeeded, and succeeding. But with NATO crossing each of Russia's red lines without a commensurate response TO NATO, this pacifist is bringing Russia itself closer to nuclear war and great destruction. There comes a time when a rabid dog needs to be put down with extreme lethal force. That time has arrived and past for Russia to take on NATO targets directly. British FM, defMin, coming to Ukraine and urging more war, special forces fighting directly in Odessa and involved in strikes on targets in Crimea and now the EW radar... Russia should reply with a few well chosen strikes on Trident and British submarine bases. Further strikes by NATO - then flatten the 'City' of London (the old 'city', the financial centre). Any further bluster or strike on Russia, should lead to a few FAB1500s directly on Ramstein and other US bases housing nukes. Hesitating now is more costly for Russia in the medium to long term. This hesitation I see as entirely due to Putin. If left to others in the security council the west would have seen strikes by now.
The Empire's desperate strategy, if we can call it that, is to threaten the whole world with death in the hopes that the Rest of the World will capitulate rather than die fighting. And if not, well, if the US Empire can't own the world, no one will.
The Opposing Powers' desperate strategy is to escalate as slowly as they can get away with, in the hopes that the Empire will implode into civil war before it can reach its goal.
While the strikes do damage Russian prestige, air defense systems being damaged and destroyed means little so long as Ukraine has no relevant aerial forces to exploit those gaps.
Israel and Zionista would commit Americans to fight Russia. Hell, they killed President JFK and did 911 and attacked USS Liberty, and poison our food… Wormtongue is gonna keep on killing USA hicks.
Slow and grinding attrition both industrial and militarily are moving the broad arrows of the Russian advances from east to west, and now north to south. It is late spring and the Great Slush has dried, it is tank season. Armor supported by infantry and artillery will move as this post has very clearly and succinctly pointed out. People are not going to like this, but, if the Ukrainian forces and by extension NATO et al, want any chance at all of a country called Ukraine after the war is concluded, they should consider where their “Alamo” is going to be and pull back to those positions, use strong point defensive positions joined by concentric bands that become increasingly more difficult to capture. Yes, it means giving up huge territory, but as this post points out they don’t have the staying power in men and material. Consolation and holding that which can be held seems the only way to survive long enough to get to a negotiated settlement.
It has long seemed that Odessa is in the Russian Federation gunsight’s. One wonders if they had the equivalent of a US Marine Corps “expeditionary force” (MEF) if an amphibious assault or at least the threat of it would really change the battle space. Likely it would. Indeed “Pluskat! Pluskat! can you hear me” sounds amazingly poignant.
Lastly if an unserious, intellectually devoid, fool like Secretary Blinken and his boss and some nattering nabobs in DC think Americans are going to send American military personnel (beyond those already in Ukraine) to this fight and drag us into another quagmire that he should learn to play the guitar right handed. When and if American fighting men and women start coming home in steel grey coffins, draped with the American flags arriving at Dover AFB, than this little horses ass who wants to be Rockin in the free world then he and ANY member of the federal government need to have a serious rethink of their positions. America writ large just won’t have it again. Any member of the Congress that continues to throw good money after bad needs to be turned out of office. It’s time real adults returned to Washington, the problem seems to be there aren’t any. Putin at this point could care less, he intends to take that which he has designs on in Ukraine (hydrocarbons and grain) and humiliate the west. He is at least half way there.
You are wrong about "Putin's" quest for Ukrainian resources. Russia has no need for more resources.
The Russian mission has been clear from day 1- and will continue to completion.
Demilitarized
Denazified
No NATO
What has changed is the Russians understanding of their foe and the lengths this foe is willing to go to.
Now Russia understands to fully achieve its 3 goals- is complete takeover of Ukraine(except possibly the region along the Polish border- they might leave that for Poland to deal with).
Russia does not want to fight its way across Ukraine and the destruction that entails- which they will have to pay to repair & rebuild.
Russia draws Ukraine/NATO close to it where Russia has easy supply lines and can operate out of bases in Russia.
The point is rapidly approaching where Ukraine/NATO forces are incapable of resisting.
As the LOC fragments, Ukraine/NATO forces become isolated, then surrounded by Russian forces.
As reported by various Ukraine sources- they have virtually no reserves left.
As Russia opens 1 or 2 more fronts in the Sumy/Chernigov region- they draw any remaining reserves in to be pummeled & attritted.
This means virtually every Ukrainian/NATO soldier & military asset is east of the Dneiper.
Now that they are all east of the Dneiper- Russia is unlikely to allow any retreat to the west of the Dneiper.
This means the west of Ukraine is virtually demilitarized- relatively easy to takeover once the forces east of the Dneiper have been destroyed or captured.
Despite many calling for Russia to destroy the Dneiper bridges- Russia has not.
But they could strategically cut them if Ukraine/NATO forces try to retreat.
Once Russia has secured east of the Dneiper- advancing to the west becomes relatively easy.
Also- given the state of Ukraine society- the most ardent nationalists are in the fight- and doomed- the rest of the Ukrainians are actually trying to stay alive until Russia arrives.
Already reports appearing of rising anger among Ukrainians as more & more realise they have been used as pawns/cannon fodder by the "west".
Given this variety of factors- there will be no widespread partisan guerrilla resistance.
People living in Ukraine want to return to living in peace.
Impossible to predict timelines.
The only near certainty is that Ukraine- if it exists at all- will be a tiny, destitute and meaningless territory. Much like Moldova.
Agreed on all points and assessments, though would argue grains, ammonia, hydrocarbons that come with the first theee objectives wouldn’t be dismissed in the Kremlin. With two you get egg roll. The west has missed the point completely, ruined a nation state such as it was and killed on sides hundreds of thousands. Gone are the days of Obama sitting in the situation room on Tuesday mornings and deciding who to kill this week via drone strike. Oh there are drones aplenty in this current conflict but they are accretive to the fight. Russian Federation holds all the cards and we can look forward to a summer of mass, speed, maneuverer, more territory gained and the Ukrainian NATO forces degraded to a point where it will become clear that the gig is up. If I were Putin at this point the more heeps of humiliations he can stack on the west and the more he can with this conflict affect the presidential election this fall in the states the more that will drive the tempo of the fight unless there is a major collapse before. At this point one would guess Boris Johnson won’t be terribly welcome in Kiev….
Your views are very much appreciated gives more robust clarity to the dynamics of the conflict. We didn’t need to get here…but here we are…
The West wanted the resources and the productive farm land. Soros, bankers and drug companies bought absolute control of a large chunk of western Ukraine to use as a toxic waste dump including radioactive waste.
The west(rothschild & oligarch cartel) wanted(still want) to destroy Russia.
This was & is their number 1 mission/goal.
Ukraine ground & control of Ukraine via Ukrainian puppets or another Jewish President- was just a side bonus.
Ultimately "they" are going to lose everything.
Unfortunate 500,000 to 1,000,000 Ukrainian Slavs had to die.
Hopefully when this is over- all remaining soon to be former Ukrainians, along with their neighbors in Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria & Slovakia will understand what really happened and will turn away from the western globalist plague. I fear Poland is already to far gone with the globalist mind virus and their inate Russophobia. But who knows. One can hope they awake to reality before they get sucked down by the collapsing western empire.
Odessa is and always has been Russian. The fact is the whole of Ukraine is Russian. Under international law Ukraine was allowed automnomy under certain conditions as a buffer between Russia and NATO agression. Yankland defiled and and broke that contract with the Maidan coup.
Юридически Украина все ещё входит в СССР так как делимитации границ до сих пор не проведена. В 2003 был заключён договор, но демаркация так и не была проведена. Поэтому границы между Россией и Украиной нет. Отсылки к границам 1991 поражают своей безграмотностью. Так как единственная граница подтвержденная международным правом это граница СССР.
I don't think Russia will stop until they control Odessa. If you look at the map then this means little will be left of Ukraine by that stage. Odessa is also the booby prize for NATO. Fun and games there in the future.
"The bigger problem for Ukraine, from a force generation perspective, is their increasing reliance on a small roster of premiere brigades which are constantly being shuttled around the front to fight fires and attend to pressing combat tasks. "
Given the poor state of new recruits clearly de-nazification and de-militarisation is now just one task - get rid of the few remaining experienced troops.
Thus a very broad front that commits all remaining Ukrainian troops is exactly what is required.
Ultimately taking places like Kharkov (which I presume Russia is indifferent towards) and Odessa (which I feel Russia wants) is going to be extremely costly in terms of Russian troops and Ukrainian collateral - neither of which Russia has shown any signs of wanting to risk. That means the complete exhaustion of Ukrainian military has to occur first.
Er... This is desperate pro-Russian propaganda. Look. I want Russia to win, but Putin "No Balls", as he is known, will not take the measures required. He stopped Girkin from taking the Donbass in 2014, remember - Putin, a German speaker, knew best. Only he was conned. And so Russia missed the only chance to take the whole of the 8 Russian-speaking provinces at a time when there were only 4,000 battle-ready troops in the Ukraine. Putin's minions, Shoigu included, are not patriots - Shoigu tried to stop the capture of the Crimea in 2014 - but are just corrupt freeloaders. The failure to defenestrate them means the war went wrong from the start. Withdrawal from Kiev before the peace deal was signed? Hmm. Putin was conned (if you keep getting conned, the problem is you). The Ukraine had 6 weeks of ammunition in February 2022, but Putin did nothing to interdict supplies coming over the border from Poland. He didn't shoot down any American satellites playing a part in the war. He didn't destroy the bridges over the Dniepr. He destroyed power distribution facilities in late 2022, but not the power plants themselves - ensuring that it took 2 days and not years for the Ukraine to rebuild. He has allowed a constant parade of Western officials in Kiev. He agreed with Naftali Bennet not to target Zelensky. He bleats "one day I might even target decision-making centres in Kiev, if I find my balls", but does nothing. His "red lines" in the Crimea have disappeared. Apparently you can attack Russia as much as you like, without a response. Putin signed repeated grain deals that included opening routes for Russia's ammonia exports - which didn't happen. Apparently, Putin got conned. Now, 1.5 years after humiliatingly losing Kherson and Kharkov, because Putin didn't want to order a mobilisation in time, Putin now wants to freeze the conflict along current lines (which have hardly shifted for a year and a half). Isn't this guy much worse than Gorbachev? No, you won't be getting Kharkov or Nikolayev or Odessa or Dnepropetrovsk or Zaporozhye city and won't be getting Kherson city back. In the third year of the war, Putin wants to settle for what was gained in the first couple of weeks of the war. IF SO, WHY HAVE SO MANY PEOPLE DIED? What a cowardly moron - but he was brave enough to imprison Girkin, so maybe he is a great leader after all?????
Anyone is welcome to disagree with me or even think my writing is bad, but I do resent being called a “propagandist.” It’s obvious from my writing that I’m not in the employ of the Russian government or anything like that - I’m an enthusiast of history trying my best to write the current history as it happens.
Your analysis and writing are just fine. Better than fine. Carey on! The vast majority of people sadly don’t have a clue about what you are writing about and some have some other issues. To wierd to comprehend so don’t. Keep going, let the foolish believe foolishly.
Ignore posts like this. They probably get their news from US media which IS propaganda. Keep up the good work. I look forward to each of your articles.
You’re better than fine. Both in analysis and writing style.
I agree with everything you said especially about how the Russian response will continue to infuriate people on the internet 😂
I am not one of those people. I think that having a plan and not overreacting is the optimal way to go and there has been many times when people called for a stronger response which I saw very clearly as 6th columnist and/or hysterics.
However, in the case of the Aramdvir radar it is different. It’s one thing to strike an S400 in Crimea - well within Ukraine’s right after Russia annihilating their AD capability of the mighty Patriots (kidding). It’s another to hit a strategic nuclear early warning radar that has nothing to do with the fight within Russia.
This cannot pass without a strong but calibrated response against the US with a VERY CLEAR message that this crossed a line that must never be crossed. Doesn’t matter who gave the order or pulled the trigger - The United States of America IS RESPONSIBLE and it will be they who pay the price of such actions.
Waiting - or worst not responding - imho, is a strategic mistake. What do you think?
In many online exchanges, I've only been called a propagandist by two groups of people - on-and-off professional journalists, and rah-rah former western military who use their status to sh#tpost standard talking points. Food for thought.
It’s easy to be a Monday morning quarterback. Some people just can’t fathom that there may be complexities to the decisions of the Russian leadership over the last 10 years that they don’t know and/or understand. This guy wants to run Russia like a drunk in a bar brawl.
You have written some brilliant articles like the one on the failed storming of Ugledar by marines, the Schroedinger cat one, or the Bakhmut after-action round-up.
"Ukraine simply has no hope of success waging a successful, full scale offensive. For one thing, offensive actions are hard. It’s difficult to successfully coordinate multi-brigade action - so far in Kherson, they are struggling to concentrate more than a battalion at critical points. Russia has combined armed reserves, artillery advantages, and a tremendous edge in airpower. Ukraine cannot achieve strategic objectives - all they can do is trade the lives of their men for temporary tactical successes that can be spun into wins by their propaganda arm.
The failure of the Kherson counteroffensive will accelerate progress towards the two tipping points, both by degrading the Ukrainian army further, and souring westerners on continuing to support Ukraine. Winter and the ensuing economic chaos will do the rest."
You wrote this just one week before the AFU retook over 500 settlements and 12,000 square kilometres of territory in the Kharkov region, and a couple of months after Kherson got reoccupied as well... took you the next 4 or 5 articles to conjure up some cope for that. LOL Kind of unlucky given it's a first article, but I am glad you found the galls to persevere with your substack presence.
You are one of the more reasonable fair voices in all this.
However, that does not change the fact the SMO spawned a lot of "experts" who are taking advantage of people's desire for information in conditions of MSM being totally controlled and practically the equivalent with an opposite sign of the Soviet Pravda. But this is a market, and the people who are attracted to "alternative media" mostly have an unfulfilled need of a savior, someone to rescue them from the shittiness of the conditions in their own countries. And they have latched onto Putin as that savior. So any criticism of him they take as a personal insult.
Never mind the facts. Which, objectively, are that Putin is in real danger of being the last Russian ruler unless he very soon gets his act together, but that does not seem likely because he is in that situation to begin with because of all the weakness he displayed all these years, and not just weakness, there were many times when the Kremlin under him actively worked *against* core Russian interests. The whole Ukraine mess was created in the first place as a result of a long string of such actions.
It also doesn't help that the Western "alternative media" approaches this from a largely libertarian/conservative position, and caters to people who have such leanings themselves. But the real critique of Putin inside Russia is communist (because Putin has always been a neoliberal). So those two things naturally don't mix very well.
Those are the facts. Keep in mind that you are an American who enters this story rather late in its development, and with a focus on the more distant history. The events in the former Soviet space of the 1990s and early 2000s you don't know all that much about.
P.S. Regarding the quality of the alternative commentariat, here is what Larry Johnson posted about the attacks on the EW radars:
Suggest you go back and re-read the article instead of spewing a hodge-podge of unrelated, including unsubstantiated western propaganda related to 8 years in the past. Latest one being the Reuters BS piece of 'Putin desperately wanting to freeze'. RU has always been open to negotiations, but based on facts on the ground. The west is not. In fact, those seem more like personal opinions. Anyway, let's just nuke London already and be done with it.
The article wasn't about any of that, it's about how AFU will be gradually fractured into digestible pockets, like New York - Toretsk, and Kupyansk front perhaps cut off, and how the Kharkov-Vovchansk-Liptsy operation may be synergic with Kupyansk and Konstantinovka operation in the future. The Ukrainian society is a slow moving train wreck as it tries to squeeze out last of its mobilization potential. This is also partially why Nato-Western leaders are going berserk, and squeezing the last of their escalation potential short of nukes.
If you think that this article is propaganda then you need to look at what actual propaganda looks like. You can start with this Ukrainia update that’s full of Ukraine propaganda and comments galore.
I kind of agree with you, I think Putler should have nuked Bakhmutt rather than grinding up Wagner (rest in peace Prioghzin) and sent in rad suited infantry to bayonet the survivors. Still, I've been wrong about a lot of things of this war and as much as it's a cope to say "trust the plan" I really do have to put my faith in the Russian MoD. If they can't beat the tranny omnicidal west, who can?
Rurik Skywalker and Paul Craig Roberts are good commentators on this. This slow-paced artillery war is something that was always bound to give the West plenty of time to get more and more involved. The idea that the Ukrainian army will collapse and then the Ukraine will agree to hand over cities that were never conquered including Kharkov and Odessa in a diktat peace is foolish really. As Putin himself says, the only possible negotiations will be ones based on battlefield reality. If Putin doesn't want to take Kharkov, that means Kharkov will be Ukrainian for good. Read Rurik Skywalker for the rest.
It's getting boring to say, but as usual, this is a top-of-the-class analysis from you, Serge.
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I am particularly sensitive to the end of the argument, about how Ukraine will blame NATO for any coming demise, while NATO has not only been an easy-going provider, but has also reached its own limits regarding what it can provide without degrading its own strategic position -- which is not good enough in general to afford losing military capability.
Ukrainians have no love for the West, they have only insults and blame. Yet, they demand limitless love from Western countries. As a citizen of France, I'm still waiting for anyone to explain to me what Ukraine and Ukrainians have ever done for either France or Europe, that would put us in debt towards them. I do however see how they have conspired with the US and the UK, outside of any democratic control either in Ukraine or in Western countries, to set up a war. And I do see how family feuds among Soviet tribes should remain strictly family feuds...
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The West will still try to make this war last much longer, cause, you know... "it hurts Russia and costs no human life", as some prominent US politician put it, thereby defining "human life" as "American life". Russia is gearing up for this, hence the new econometrist defense minister.
I can't see how rational leaders would not see that the longer this lasts, the more the chances of it getting totally out of control increase. I can't see how they would not see that risks of losing control in other parts of the world increase as well. And I can't grasp how they're not worried by the risk of some unpredicted and unpredictable event meant to cause chaos taking place while they're busy making silly plans. If you wonder what I mean when I speak of an unpredictable event, think of the attack on Israel by Hamas, as a reminder.
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France, for instance, is about to go through 3 full months of Olympic and Paralympic games, with national and international gatherings of crowds that will stretch and stress our security forces in every way. What if some actor unrelated to Ukraine or Russia sees an opportunity?
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I fear that the US and the Ukrainian leadership will indeed fight this war till the last Ukrainian. At least, the last Ukrainian who's failed to flee abroad to safety.
Well Ukraine is very useful to the West because geographically is a thorn in the side of Russia, the same way Czechoslovakia was to Hitlerite Germany.
Need a gazillion of divisions to watch the border with a hostile Ukraine, and it is easy from there to advance to Moscow, or even better strike it heavily.
A hostile independent Ukraine allied to the West, is like having achieved the goals of Operation Barbarossa, without losing a single man or fire a single shot of your own. Massive starting advantage
Thanks for your comment - I heard, I read somewhere in passing, twitter, and now can not find the link that, Macron has sent out so many troops and policemen to Nouvelle Calédonie that he's short for the adequate policing/security for the Olympic Games, even with the foreign troops already promised
And that he has asked around EU countries to contribute more troops and police
Some troops were sent to Nouvelle Calédonie to bring back some order. Their task will be to take over missions of protection of official buildings, so that the Gendarmerie can use more men for its missions of policing.
This is however unlikely to impact the Olympic games. But it will bring some fatigue on the men, many of whom will likely be mobilised during the games as well.
The contribution of foreign troops is meant to be symbolic, and they will not be doing any form of policing as I understand it.
I thnk the U.S. wants it to spin out of control. Quick.
We are 34 TRILLION in debt. What better way to cancel it or partially pay it off than WWIII? What better way to have all mail in ballots? What better way to kill citizens, so their "multiculcutural eutopia" survives.
Excellent analytical article. The latest news from Kharkov-Liptsy-Volchansk area is AFU has deployed 7 brigades here, a decision heavily influenced by Zelensky. Zelensky said they have 'combat control' in Kharkov, probably a fancy marketing term to encourage US to give more aid. These brigades were mostly pulled out of other lines.
Anyway, supporting Vovchansk seems to be much tougher for AFU than RUAF, especially if RUAF keeps the bridges across the Donets river out of commission. Vovchansk will draw defenders from both Kupyansk and Kharkov, while Belgorod serves as an efficient and short distance hub of supporting RUAF groupings both around Liptsy and Vovchansk. Ultimately one of the crucial factors is who has more fire support like drones and artillery, and can deny enemy usage of their firing support. RUAF has supposedly reduced a lot of AFU artillery in this area, as they forward deployed them to keep taking pot shots on Belgorod even as the front moved south.
Ultimately, perhaps we will see a RU advance down on the east bank of the Donets river to threaten Kharkov-Kupyansk route. In the short term, AFU seems to be attempting some counter-attacks both north of Lipsy and in Vovchansk. If RUAF can defend and repel these attacks, then on the scope including Donbass front this could be seen as a victory, as it gets a lot of AFU bogged down with their attacks in Volchansk and Lipsy.
But AFU are paying the price in Urozhaine-Konstantinovka area, and now Ocheretyne area which may serve as a launching pad to bypass Toretsk-New York agglameration and cut the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. Seems the lines are more scattered for AFU all over the places, compared to RUAF, who is now poised to severe AFU arteries in many places. But ultimately a lot depends on maximizing own firing support while reducing the enemies fire support.
Not suing for peace under these conditions is both grossly immoral and what the GAE demands. It’s no longer Russia wiping out hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians, it’s Biden, Nuland, Blinken and the American congress.
American Afghanistan veterans volunteered for the war, but quickly ran back when they realized they were fighting a near peer army, not farmers in flip flops.
The kind of human material that is going for the US army these days, aren’t exactly of the highest quality.
Perhaps. I don’t think so, but who knows? Imo it’s more probable that we will introduce tactical nukes when it becomes evident even to the GAE, MIC & Kagan Kult that Ukraine can’t win. Who knows after that?
Thank you, Serge, for being a truthful antidote to the daily lies of the leftist, Western state media. A needless war that never should have been fought in the first place now grinds inexorably to its logical conclusion with a generation of young Ukrainians the murdered pawns in a cynical game played by the Biden cabal.
The west has staggered its military provisioning, accompanied by staggered high profile declarations that it will not supply whatever, in an attempt to use the threat of these various weapons as a great bargaining tool to get Russia to do a western face saving deal that will give the west the breathing space to refight this war down the line. The threats and promises just keep on being ignored by Russia, which is why we keep on getting this so called breach of these imaginary 'red lines'.
The last big threat was troops on the ground en masse, risible under any star. The Russians called the western bluff while making clear exactly what would happen if NATO or whomever did put troops, in these concentrations, into Ukraine. The west backed down. Now we have the threats of terrorist strikes inside Russia. Again Russia has made clear what a proportionate response includes. It includes the recent Kharkov strike with who knows what losses to western operations. We will find out when the smoke clears on this one.
Sooner or later the west must accept that this war, a local Ukrainian civil war with a fascist junta persecuting ethnic Russians and that Russia was eventually going to lose patience with, is not worth the candle. The Ukrainians sold western involvement as a route to getting control of Russian resources. That prospect is a dead parrot. Ukraine is still wittering on about it though- if only the west will enable it to commit sufficient acts of terrorism inside Russia the Russian people will overthrow Putin. Wrong. Russia will overthrow the whole of Ukraine first, and if the challenges to its security still do not stop, take another look at the complicity of the Baltic states. There is no route to victory for the west here. It should back off now while it still has a 'face' to save.
Kissinger had suggested that an alliance of the US and Russia would bring stability across the globe. That alliance would have halted China's revanchism. It would have gotten Iran out of the Middle East. And it would have relegated Europe to its rightful place as a Second World country.
Kissinger's concept was known in foreign policy circles as was the fact that he had been meeting with Trump well before the 2016 election.
I'm going to venture a guess here and say that the whole Russian collusion thing was a successful attempt by entities threatened by a US/Russian alliance to pre-empt such a development from taking place.
I'm also going to guess that if Trump wins in November, he will follow up on Kissinger's advice.
But any mere human in the Oval Office would be easily manipulated. The Cuban Missile Crisis happened because the Soviets resented the US Jupiter Missiles in Turkey - nearly as close to Moscow as Ukraine. So they put missiles in Cuba to show the Yanks what it felt like. The whole crisis blew over as soon as Kennedy actually talked to Khrushschev by phone. Khrushchev told him about the Jupiter missiles in Turkey, which must have surprised kennedy as he had given orders for them to be removed months earlier. The Pentagon simply ignored his order!
Truman put his finger on the key fact.
'When contemplating General Eisenhower winning the Presidential election, Truman said, “He’ll sit here, and he’ll say, ‘Do this! Do that!’ And nothing will happen. Poor Ike—it won’t be a bit like the Army. He’ll find it very frustrating”'.
- Richard E. Neustadt, “Presidential Power, the Politics of Leadership”, p. 9 (1960). https://www.bartleby.com/73/1514.html (Truman also liked to point out that, unlike Ike, he had seen active service and been shot at “by experts”).
Nope. The war is between US Dollar/New Yorm Jewish Banking Mafia and sovereign Global South. NY Trump is Jewish Mafia puppet: 3 Trumps children married Jews, Roy Cohn (Jewish Blackmail boss) was Trump’s
Mentor, Jeffrey Epstein (successor to Roy Cohn) was Trump’s partner, Sheldon Adelson (mafia casino owner, Israel first dual citizen) Trump’s lead patron who got Trump elected…
One does not simply become the Real Esrate Mogul of Mordor… Trump’s next job in office is to sell hick Americans the tenth war for Israel.
I am always amazed by how deep and accurate your analyses are compared to what I read in newspapers. I try to convince my friends to read your articles or even share them with journalists to show how shallow other articles on the matter can be. Unfortunately, everyone dismisses my suggestions because they don’t recognize a well-known name. It’s so frustrating how people can’t judge content based on its quality and instead care only about the name. Anyway, thank you 🙏. I don’t need to know your identity. Your content is amazing.
I think the author, unlike most western analysts, correctly identifies the purpose of these Russian operations. It is to force the UAF to fight, force it to commit reserves, force it to expend munitions - all in unfavourable circumstances. Where is not so important as how, and ground taken only of real importance in the sense that key terrain lost means a more disadvanatgeous position for the UAF. UAF losses seem to be running at twice the level of a year ago. At present rates of loss there can only be 2 or 3 months left before the UAF is unable to continue the fight in any meaningful way. If these maths are correct, then at that point it is game over apart from the mopping up. And NATO knows this, so I speculate this is the reason behind the recent moves to encourage a ceasefire accompanied/encouraged by moves to attack Russian strategic assets within Russia itself.
Obviously the attacks on Russian rear assets wont really help Ukraine, thats not what the strikes are about. The focus on hitting Russia strategic assets in Crimea and other areas, its Navy, Air Force Bases, Long range Bombers, just recently even its early warning nuclear Radar, are all things that benefit the West, not Ukraine. What we're seeing with those strikes is the West using the little time and the free hand they have to decrease Russia capability where it, meaning US/NATO has concerns about in a future war against Russia. That's why we will see these big ticket item strikes increase over the next few months, not to help Ukraine, but to help the US and NATO. The publicity is just a bonus.
What scares me is that Washington seems to be trying to whittle away Russia's defences against a strategic nuclear attack. If that goes too far, the Russians will be forced to choose between surrender and a preemptive counterattack.
Unfortunately, our elites are too incompetent to realize that in case of a nuclear war, Russia is likely to come out of it better than NATO.
(Though sure: It’s hard to talk about winners in a nuclear war.)
In the case of a thermonuclear war, the only ones with any chance of coming out of it at all would be bacteria, viruses, fungi, and maybe cockroaches.
Disagree. Modern nuclear weapons aren’t the massive 20-40 MT bombs we used to have in the 60ies. They’re smaller, around 1 MT.
But Russia is such a vast country that a few dozen nukes wouldn’t have the same horrific effect it would have on far more tightly packed and centralized Europe or the US.
On top of that, Russian nuclear weapons are modern and far more advanced than the decades old American models.
A British submarine recently tried AND FAILED to test launch a ballistic missile. Twice in a row.
Nothing would delight NATO more than if Russia were to resort to nuclear weapons.
The problem is that the Russians might resort to Tactical Nuclear weapons in the European land mass avoiding a Strategic Exchange with the USA and the ones that get fried would be Western and Eastern Europeans. Millions will die while the two main powers will eventually come to an agreement to stop hostilities and let the Europeans die on the Vine. Sort of in the part of the Europeans of Dumb and Dommer,
Doing so would be a godsend to the United States. Russian impotence would be on full display, any moral high ground Russia enjoyed would be gone forever, the world would stop talking about Israel's crimes, and the door would be open to using nuclear weapons on Iran, for example.
Not fair, but fair ain't got nothing to do with it.
Anyway, europeans are congenital ass-lickers. Those familiar with Looney Tunes may recall the little yappy dog that follows Spike The Bulldog around.
lol, Feral.
They may think so. Those of them with IQs less than their ages.
The fact that the human species has not yet obliterated itself overnight by no means rules that out as a possibility.
Proof of immortality: I exist, therefore I shall always exist.
The sociopaths who rule over the West would without hesitation annihilate us all if that meant they did not lose their perches.
Does being vaporised count as "losing their perches"? Bear in mind that some of them may honestly believe in The Rapture - and that they would be swept to heaven rather than the other place where they manifestly belong.
I am reminded of the joke about Petro Poroshenko when he dies and approaches the Pearly Gates with a vast amount of luggage, including tons of gold bars and jewelry. After a brief and slightly acrimonious conversation, St. Peter directs our hero to the Other Place. Following the universe's longest elevator ride, Poroshenko reaches the Other Place, where the Devil greets him warmly 8-) and offers him cocktails before he settles in to the lake of molten basalt. Suddenly Poroshenko exclaims in annoyance, "Oh bother - I left all my luggage at the Pearly gates". "No problem", replies his genial host; I'll send some apprentice demons up to get them for you.
Finding the Pearly Gates firmly closed due to the unholy hour, the demons - reluctant to return empty-handed and face the Boss's fury - try to climb over the wall into the Eternal City. Noticing them, one saint remarks to another, "Surely that's a record. Poroshenko's only been in Hell for 45 minutes, and already we're getting refugees".
Far as they are concerned, they'll be in the shelters.
Ever seen "Don't Look Up!"?
They don't need to nuke. Just release a virus with toxic vaccines ready to roll out globally on a mostly unsuspecting mass of humans.
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The attacks on strategic assets like early warning radars are an attempt by Ukraine to get Russia to escalate the war in a way that will draw combat troops from NATO into the conflict.
No, I don't think so. It's true what you say, but I think those attacks are part of the long term strategy for NATO involvement. NATO wanted this war: it was its wet dream, so taking out critical defense infrastructure such as the nuclear radars looks (in isolation) like a random blow by Ukraine. In fact all targets are likely selected by NATO personnel, the buttons pressed by NATO personnel - in short, NATO's proxy war is getting real and hotter. Like I said: they have been wanting this since Yeltsin was ousted.
Personally, if I was Russia, that specific attack would have garnered an absolute response, something brutal and vital that the west couldn't avoid or deny. That response didn't happen, and my fear is that the neo-con / neo-lib two wings one bird worldview will see this as another sign of Russian weakness, and so push further.
The West, the US in particular, needs to feel some acute pain for its actions. I don't think Russia will attack the US mainland directly, but the US has 800 bases worldwide. Some of those need levelled, and everyone sent home in body-bags. Sorry, that sounds brutal and uncaring, but in truth I think that's the only sort of message those warmongers in Washington will ever understand.
I don't think body bags coming home full will bother the war mongers at all until they're filled with the war mongers' kids and grandkids.
Some folks are born made to wave the flag
Hoo, they're red, white and blue
And when the band plays "Hail to the chief"
Ooh, they point the cannon at you, Lord
It ain't me, it ain't me
I ain't no senator's son
It ain't me, it ain't me
I ain't no furtunate one, no
"...and everyone sent home in body-bags....that sounds brutal..."
Nah, not brutal at all, we're talking about war criminal scum. US/UK military personnel are basically mercenaries. They are in it for the weekly pay, they aren't protecting their country and have a fascist mindset. Kill them all.
Easier said than done, my bloodthirsty poppet.
Not if they stick their necks out. Rambo will be toast...literally.
Captain Ibrahim Traoré president of Burkino Faso has united his neighbors and stuck up the middle finger to the communist West. Yankland has Airbase 201 in Niger which currently has severe restrictions on operations with the threat of total eradication if Yankland really pisses of the locals.
Yankland is 34.7 Trillion in debt and has a GDP to debt ratio of 131% and rising.
Traditionally countries have defaulted at 130%.
The ONLY reason the Petrodollar still exists is because of BRICS+ policies lead by ...... You guessed it Mr. Putin.
I am of the opinion that the planned Agenda 2030 just might not happen.
BRICs countries are moving away from the USD as reserve currency. Most of the trade between Russia and China is in Yuan and Rubles. Russia is selling oil in other currencies because of the sanctions.
U.S. real GDP is less than 50% of claimed. China and Mexico have 80% of former U.S. industrial capacity. U.S. Government is 42%, Imputed Rent is 8%, Services including Financial Skimming, bloated Medical, the Internet, etc make up most of the rest.
Yet.. the Narrative, story, fiction, lie Sector is Red Hot.
Ukraine believes anything they do to strike in Russia can somehow solve their current problems, or hopefully get NATO to send troops. So maybe the lies the US and they themselves tell them are something along those lines, like the early warning radar was justified by Ukraine as being something that could see their planes and missiles (which by most experts on the subject was complete crap since the radar wasn't used like that)
But considering the attacks are directed by, and possible even managed directly, by the US and NATO (the target selection, identification, surveillance is all from the US AWACs and Satellites) I have no doubt this was part of the US both testing their own future strike options to blind the Russians, and to decrease their capability in the short to medium term.
I have no doubt that the US is deeply involved in hitting the Russian early warning radars. Our government is looking for a reason to enter the war directly. A big Russian escalation might provide their casus belli. And, thanks to the War Powers Act, they don't even need Congress to commit troops.
We avoided direct conflict with the USSR through the Cold War. Why we're courting war with Russia now is beyond my simple abilities.
Given the many statements made by the kike whore Victoria Nuland who started this whole sitshow with the queer Kenyan your so-called leaders are doing everything they can to provock WW III.
That kike owned traitor Trump will change no thing whatsoever.
Avoided for a time you mean, the US has been obsessed with breaking the MAD dilemma. Its been in constant pursuit of both complete defense against nuclear strikes, and its ambition of having a first strike capability that would somehow prevent a second strike retaliation by its enemy.
The US doesn't need a reason. A reason can always be ginned up.
And war with Russia is beyond our, and NATO’s, feeble abilities.
But they obviously don't think so. All the latest MSM claiming land routes to rush NATO/US forces to Ukraine.
Russia has already stated that under some foreseen circumstances that they wish to avoid they may be forced to eradicate all the Western suveillence satellites.
Basically if they take out the satillites it will be in conjunction with a major nuclear strike.
The Collective communist West just keeps on a pushing.
That assumes that there will be a NATO, or for that matter, much population left in North America and Western Europe to intervene. This is madness, seemingly designed to instigate a full scale nuclear exchange...not that Iosyf Bidenko cares about USA one bit.
Nope. Ukraine now knows there is no hope of that. It is still insisting on these strikes as the means of fomenting internal rebellion in Russia, rewarding the west that way.
I made a comment on Simplicus yesterday, taking up points made by others, that this is really two wars. One is a ground attrition war which Ukraine is on the verge of losing catastrphically. At current rates of attrition/replacements I estimate by the end of August there will be a collapse. The second war is a high tech long range war waged against Russian strategic assets using rebadged NATO personnel and using NATO wepons and targetting etc, to achieve NATO aims. It has nothing to do with Ukraine's war per se. I speculated that as the West realises Ukraine has lost its war, this NATO escalation is an attempt to create conditions where Russia will seek a ceasefire. However if not, it [like wily coyote] allows NATO to directly engage Russian targets of importance. Apparently this approach has minimal risk....
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spot on
That argument works if these strikes really do that. But they do not, not at the moment. if they did, Russia would step the operation up to war with the west directly. That would bring a wider western defeat so much closer in time, as opposed to your long range western victory.
Or unleash the mother of terrorist campaign against the Civilian infrastructure in the West using proxies with of course full deniability. Bridges power plants tunnels EMP weapons detonated in key areas such as main electrical distribution centers. Our infrastructure is our weak point and fairly easy to cripple.
It is embarrassing to have such an unserious clown as Blinken as a senior official of the US government. The trouble with unserious people in a situation like this is that they make unserious decisions like putting combat troops into the war. If that happens companies making body bags will be a good investment.
its the trend of the new generation of Western politicians and diplomats (as one person calls them the Managerial Class), they're childish, naïve, quixotic nearly fanatical in their neo-liberal faith, yet think themselves geniuses. They talk and act like spoiled teenagers, they use things like twitter or Tiktok to post memes and sarcastic gotchas like the average redditor, they even act like that in state press briefings and when meeting foreign officials. They have more in common with Instagram influencers and ecelebs than they do with government officials.
>they're childish, naïve, quixotic nearly fanatical i
I agree. But even 20 years ago it was not so. How did we come to this? What made these people so infantile?
I'd say the late 70s or 80s were the time when the US managerial classes begin to look like amateurs and time-servers.
I'm not sure why that particular point in time was significant. One possibility is that it became possible during that era to become fantastically wealthy in just a few years as a result of holding one job. So leadership roles became a tempting target for people who just wanted vast amounts of money and nothing else. Rather than being held by people who worked their way up through the ranks at their firm and had an interest in the firm, it's business, and its products, they began to be occupied by lawyers and MBAs who parachuted in from elsewhere, did a bunch of shortsighted stuff over a period of a year or two, got their stock, and headed for the hills. The recent CEOs of Boeing over the last 15 years are a case in point.
Once your society is being run by a few thousand people of this description, you can imagine that things begin to really change.
good question. I suppose it follows the general direction Western society itself has moved towards these past two decades. You can blame multiple factors I suppose, from the lack of proper education, the effects of mass media and entertainment, the rise of social media ect... I don't really have the answer, that's the job of sociologists.
They are also characterized by their inability to separate the symbolic and the substance. (I don't want to say "fact" and "fiction" because that's not quite true.). Symbols are potentially important, but only after the basic needs are met: if you pull out tens of thousands of troops from the front to help film a propaganda film (apparently, this is what Goebbels pulled off for the movie Kolberg in 1944 or 1945.), well, that's stupid. (Although, by that time, one would imagine some tens of thousands of additional men staying on the front wouldn't have done the Germans much good either, I suppose.). In 1945, Goebbels was a nutjob, but apparently, in 2024, he was the prophet.
^^^^
My personal belief is that all of these backroom arseholes need to have their entire extended family conscripted and sent to the front lines.
It would be very interestring to see how that influenced their descision making.
At present NONE of the scum who are warmongering have any skin in the game.
Their families are safe and they no more care about the soldiers that are killed than they care about the chickens that get turned into McNuggets.
The unserious clown is very close to achieving the commencement of strategic (even if conventional) bombing of core Russian territory without Russia evaporating DC, or even anything in Europe in response.
In effect reducing the largest nuclear power in the world to mid-1990s Yugoslavia, without firing a single shot openly and without losing a single strategic asset in the process.
That would be a remarkable success for anyone in his position.
Let's be objective.
They can’t be objective Ithey think Russia will save them from the wef neoliberal borg Consuming the planet Nobody likes it really and Russia/china the last hope for humanity and to make the west act like normal countries. Putin’s not up for the job and they can’t see it
The third world is especially in entranced by Putin guys like Pepe Escobar nearly drool when talking about him
The best way Russia could stop USA missiles from striking Moscow is a “Punitive Strike Israel” policy. They own the USA, Neocons and Zionists, and Jewish Banking Mafia.
I hope Russia has nukes reserved specifically for hawaii, new zealand and any other assorted remote locations these bitch-made “elites” think they can sit out a global nuclear war.
Israel is not the center of power. Israel is the middle eastern military outpost of the Jewish led bankster cartel. The cartel itself is decentralized between London, New York & a few European locations.
As you note- "they" own/control America & the "west"- including the western financial system- their crown jewel and the source of most of their power/control.
Agreed. Rothschild established the Israel fiefdom. I do not doubt that there are formal positions for rule of each USA state and major cities. Druglords and mafias have explicit territories. These territories are fought over among lower vassals. Arizona and John McCain was ruled by the Seagrams Jews. Trump is owned by numerous Jews, his largest patron being Sheldon Adelson, mafia casino owner and Israel first dual citizen.
Concerning is the assignment of Jews/Neocons to Americans of influence like Alex Jones (meathead). These handlers certainly have control files, blackmail material.
@Will Tyndale
Re: "his largest patron being Sheldon Adelson, mafia casino owner and Israel first dual citizen."
Sheldon Adelson died (of cancer) on January 11, 2021.
One does not simply become the “Real Estate Mogul of Mordor” through honest dealings. Good to hear handler Adelson is dead. So Trump is not a crypto-Neocon now? Trump’s one job during his next term in office: Get hicks to die for Israel for the tenth time. Believe me, I am more conservative than you.
Oh, I am not AT ALL a “conservative”, so that will be an easy mark.…
Nor am I a “librul”, no matter what Roosh Limp Bough might have said.
I am an asshole who refuses to “go along to get along”. I actually look at the shit coming down the sewer pipe and decide for myself, one turd at a time.
So fuck all you either/or, black/white cocksuckers, the universe is fucking grey and you'd best decide whether you would like it to be darker or lighter.
THAT is a wonderful 'outside the box' idea! the KOY- Kike Owned Yankland or any of its NATO puppets provide means to strike inside Russia, Russia strikes the kike in its stolen land.
Brilliant.
Solves two problems at once, Western agression and the genocide of the Palestinian people.
Madmax had Master-Blaster as a rival. This was a midget strapped to the back of a retarded oaf. The midget commanded the oaf. Such is the parasitic relationship between USA and Jews.
I absolutely LOVE the anolagy! I have Mad Max on video tape and DVD. That shows my age I know but I want back to good times.
I agree. Arming Iran or Huties would be a good asymmetric move.
Will-*****
* genocidal Zionist gets triggered *
Unserious and (even more dangerously) unaccountable.
And, of course, there is this recent gig:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SEx1h4Cfrjs
Wow! What a shitshow.
I don't know how old you are, but the choice of song (I'm told) is the height of unawareness. Imagine what it is like to be a mother, friend, aunt, sister, daughter or wife of a Ukrainian man right now and this is in your nation's capital. Was Nero this cruel?
“Rockin in the Free World” was a hit for Neil Young in the mid 80s. One of those songs that casual listeners assumed was a big rah-rah patriotic ode but anyone paying attention to the lyrics recognized as a bitter denunciation of the decline of the west. “We got a thousand points of light for the homeless man, got a kinder, gentler machine gun hand”.
Perfect irony that Blinken would miss the fact that the song denounces warmongers like him.
or, maybe he knows... ; )
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Getting on, I grew up with the Beatles and Cilla Black when music was really good.
I like Jethro Tull. King Crimson, Black Sabbath, The Doors among many others like Bach, Wagnor etc.
I love the Blues as well.
“Born in the USA” was a huge hit for Bruce Springsteen at the same time as “Rockin in the Free World”. It was also considered a big patriotic anthem while actually being about the aftermath of the Vietnam war and the way it ruined the lives of the conscripts who fought in it.
“I had a brother at Khe Sanh
Fightin' off them Viet Cong
They're still there, he's all gone
He had a woman he loved in Saigon
I got a picture of him in her arms, now”
Ah, so you're a Brit. What about Slade? Noddy had a great voice.
father, uncle, brother, son or husband as well, don't want to leave anyone out of the generational harm done by these sensitive diplomats.
Yep and ''Rap is Crap'' - Ray Charles.
Take this for the 'empire'.
Not unserious. Just a Jew who could care less how many goyim die.
Bit like face masks during the other globalist elite's belligerent operation. Certain individuals became millionaires over night for supplying sub-standard masks.
>The problem for Ukraine is that they tend to maniacally focus on token “big ticket” items that do not ameliorate their broader strategic crisis. License to hurl ATACMs at targets inside Russia is not a panacea for Ukraine’s bigger problem.
With all due respect, this is delusional thinking.
The point of firing ATACMS and Storm Shadows into pre-war Russia is fourfold:
1) Destroy air defense units and soften up Russia for further strikes. This will be quite successfully done, as evidenced by the carnage of S-400s now in Crimea. And we saw the absolute red line being crossed the other day with the strike on the EW radar in Armavir. What happens when "Ukraine" is allowed to take out the one in Kaliningrad?
2) Start destroying the MIC and critical infrastructure. This too will be quite successfully done with saturation strikes. And Ukraine has shown no qualms about hitting where it should be hitting and it really hurts, unlike Putin's not-war. E.g. Ukraine did recently hit a 750-kV substation inside Russia, after the Kremlin has stubbornly refused to shut down Ukraine for more than two years now, for god knows what reasons
3) Completely humiliate and discredit Russia and the Kremlin. The latter in the eyes of the Russian people, who will be wondering what the hell their government is doing while they are being bombed and it does not respond. The former in the eyes of the world. Who has NATO been bombing with impunity historically? Weak semi-failed states that can't defend themselves. If Russia does not respond with overwhelming force, then it automatically enters the ranks of those countries
4) Most critically important, this will accustom Russia defenses to not see SRBMs and cruise missiles as launch-on-warning threats. I can't stress how insane it is for any Russian government to agree to that. Because if you don't fire nukes back when the first such salvo is sent towards you because you assume it is conventional, then one day a big salvo will come your way that will not be conventional. But you will again assume it is and not launch before it has disabled or at least sufficiently blunted your second strike response. And it doesn't even matter if you have Poseidons and SSBNs and ICBMs in Siberia, it is enough for the enemy to think they can do a first strike for unacceptable consequences to be ensured.
All of this must absolutely never be allowed to happen. And I simply don't understand the nonchalant attitude towards of so many otherwise thoughtful observers and analysts.
General Moron spreads his NATO fertiliser across many forums...
Do you have a substantial refutation of what I said or all you know is to accuse people of being trolls and NAFOids simply because your whole identity is tied to Putin being this ominscient omnipotent omnibenelovent grand strategist that so many cargo cultists like you have created an idol out of instead of the weak indecisive and incompetent president that the enormous, quarter-century-worth-of body of evidence that we have to evaluate him on clearly points to?
Who lost Ukraine in the first place? Putin.
Who is about to have Russia-proper bombed by NATO missiles daily without responding, after already having Crimea bombed that way daily, and after already having Russia-proper being bombed daily by drones and Czech missiles and French glide bombs? Putin.
Who is then going to preside either over the dissolution of the RF or total nuclear war, because those are the only two outcomes left at this point given the successful achievement of the milestone in the previous paragraph? Putin.
What more else is there to say?
Полагаю ВВП просто не хочет ядерной войны, и ищет другие способы решения вопроса. Как показала практика он их находит, либо создаёт. ваше стремление к суициду ничем кроме глупости объяснить не могу.
Look, when the other side is hitting your strategic early warning systems and depleting your air defense, whether you want nuclear war or not is largely irrelevant -- the other side is obviously preparing for a first strike.
How exactly are you going to stop them by turning the other cheek again and again?
Ходят слухи, что Воронеж модернизирован и здание в которое попали уже не имеет такого значения. Безусловно, снарядов может быть мало, очень мало,или мало но больше уже не унести, ну так и производится их больше чем США и Европой вместе взятыми в разы . И будет производится как минимум до 2030. Я их никак не собираюсь останавливать. Я обычный законопослушный налогоплательщик. Каждый гражданин России оплачивая НДС и НДФЛ работает на свой ВПК.
Given that people still chose Crimea as...a holiday destination, I think Crimea strike successes are probably overblown. I mean, AFU wasted a huge stockpile of SCALP/Storm Shadow missiles and failed to meaningfully constrain Russian logistics in the south, which still is heavily Crimea-dependant. As for S-400 -- well, it happens in near-peer environment. After all, multiple Patriot and S-300 batteries have been destroyed in March-April near Kharkov. So what?
What Ukraine can do and likely will do, if allowed to shoot at pre-war RF territory would likely be terror strikes against Belgorod, because it boosts Ukrainian morale & helps keep the populace engaged. I mean this is how they have been using scarce MLRS and tactical missile resources agains Belgorod. They chose not to attack the staging areas, but to shoot at a civilian buildings. It is also much easier to do -- you don't have to be that precise to hit a house or square. So Electronic warfare will not help.
Agree fully @GM.
Putin is essentially a pacifist. Which is usually a good trait, but not in times of war, faced by an enemy who will go to any lengths to destroy you. The first year of the 'not-war' I understand in hindsight, it was to destroy Ukraine's army and fighting abilities. Succeeded, and succeeding. But with NATO crossing each of Russia's red lines without a commensurate response TO NATO, this pacifist is bringing Russia itself closer to nuclear war and great destruction. There comes a time when a rabid dog needs to be put down with extreme lethal force. That time has arrived and past for Russia to take on NATO targets directly. British FM, defMin, coming to Ukraine and urging more war, special forces fighting directly in Odessa and involved in strikes on targets in Crimea and now the EW radar... Russia should reply with a few well chosen strikes on Trident and British submarine bases. Further strikes by NATO - then flatten the 'City' of London (the old 'city', the financial centre). Any further bluster or strike on Russia, should lead to a few FAB1500s directly on Ramstein and other US bases housing nukes. Hesitating now is more costly for Russia in the medium to long term. This hesitation I see as entirely due to Putin. If left to others in the security council the west would have seen strikes by now.
The Empire's desperate strategy, if we can call it that, is to threaten the whole world with death in the hopes that the Rest of the World will capitulate rather than die fighting. And if not, well, if the US Empire can't own the world, no one will.
The Opposing Powers' desperate strategy is to escalate as slowly as they can get away with, in the hopes that the Empire will implode into civil war before it can reach its goal.
While the strikes do damage Russian prestige, air defense systems being damaged and destroyed means little so long as Ukraine has no relevant aerial forces to exploit those gaps.
Anyone who refers to "Ukraine" as the opponent has not even zero, but outright negative understanding of the situation.
I don’t think the West will commit their own Air Force to the theater to save Ukraine.
Israel and Zionista would commit Americans to fight Russia. Hell, they killed President JFK and did 911 and attacked USS Liberty, and poison our food… Wormtongue is gonna keep on killing USA hicks.
Russia is fighting NATO and the combined West. Not Ukraine. Ukraine is simply the cannon fodder.
The west hasn’t committed it’s Air Force, or general army.
Slow and grinding attrition both industrial and militarily are moving the broad arrows of the Russian advances from east to west, and now north to south. It is late spring and the Great Slush has dried, it is tank season. Armor supported by infantry and artillery will move as this post has very clearly and succinctly pointed out. People are not going to like this, but, if the Ukrainian forces and by extension NATO et al, want any chance at all of a country called Ukraine after the war is concluded, they should consider where their “Alamo” is going to be and pull back to those positions, use strong point defensive positions joined by concentric bands that become increasingly more difficult to capture. Yes, it means giving up huge territory, but as this post points out they don’t have the staying power in men and material. Consolation and holding that which can be held seems the only way to survive long enough to get to a negotiated settlement.
It has long seemed that Odessa is in the Russian Federation gunsight’s. One wonders if they had the equivalent of a US Marine Corps “expeditionary force” (MEF) if an amphibious assault or at least the threat of it would really change the battle space. Likely it would. Indeed “Pluskat! Pluskat! can you hear me” sounds amazingly poignant.
Lastly if an unserious, intellectually devoid, fool like Secretary Blinken and his boss and some nattering nabobs in DC think Americans are going to send American military personnel (beyond those already in Ukraine) to this fight and drag us into another quagmire that he should learn to play the guitar right handed. When and if American fighting men and women start coming home in steel grey coffins, draped with the American flags arriving at Dover AFB, than this little horses ass who wants to be Rockin in the free world then he and ANY member of the federal government need to have a serious rethink of their positions. America writ large just won’t have it again. Any member of the Congress that continues to throw good money after bad needs to be turned out of office. It’s time real adults returned to Washington, the problem seems to be there aren’t any. Putin at this point could care less, he intends to take that which he has designs on in Ukraine (hydrocarbons and grain) and humiliate the west. He is at least half way there.
You are wrong about "Putin's" quest for Ukrainian resources. Russia has no need for more resources.
The Russian mission has been clear from day 1- and will continue to completion.
Demilitarized
Denazified
No NATO
What has changed is the Russians understanding of their foe and the lengths this foe is willing to go to.
Now Russia understands to fully achieve its 3 goals- is complete takeover of Ukraine(except possibly the region along the Polish border- they might leave that for Poland to deal with).
Russia does not want to fight its way across Ukraine and the destruction that entails- which they will have to pay to repair & rebuild.
Russia draws Ukraine/NATO close to it where Russia has easy supply lines and can operate out of bases in Russia.
The point is rapidly approaching where Ukraine/NATO forces are incapable of resisting.
As the LOC fragments, Ukraine/NATO forces become isolated, then surrounded by Russian forces.
As reported by various Ukraine sources- they have virtually no reserves left.
As Russia opens 1 or 2 more fronts in the Sumy/Chernigov region- they draw any remaining reserves in to be pummeled & attritted.
This means virtually every Ukrainian/NATO soldier & military asset is east of the Dneiper.
Now that they are all east of the Dneiper- Russia is unlikely to allow any retreat to the west of the Dneiper.
This means the west of Ukraine is virtually demilitarized- relatively easy to takeover once the forces east of the Dneiper have been destroyed or captured.
Despite many calling for Russia to destroy the Dneiper bridges- Russia has not.
But they could strategically cut them if Ukraine/NATO forces try to retreat.
Once Russia has secured east of the Dneiper- advancing to the west becomes relatively easy.
Also- given the state of Ukraine society- the most ardent nationalists are in the fight- and doomed- the rest of the Ukrainians are actually trying to stay alive until Russia arrives.
Already reports appearing of rising anger among Ukrainians as more & more realise they have been used as pawns/cannon fodder by the "west".
Given this variety of factors- there will be no widespread partisan guerrilla resistance.
People living in Ukraine want to return to living in peace.
Impossible to predict timelines.
The only near certainty is that Ukraine- if it exists at all- will be a tiny, destitute and meaningless territory. Much like Moldova.
Agreed on all points and assessments, though would argue grains, ammonia, hydrocarbons that come with the first theee objectives wouldn’t be dismissed in the Kremlin. With two you get egg roll. The west has missed the point completely, ruined a nation state such as it was and killed on sides hundreds of thousands. Gone are the days of Obama sitting in the situation room on Tuesday mornings and deciding who to kill this week via drone strike. Oh there are drones aplenty in this current conflict but they are accretive to the fight. Russian Federation holds all the cards and we can look forward to a summer of mass, speed, maneuverer, more territory gained and the Ukrainian NATO forces degraded to a point where it will become clear that the gig is up. If I were Putin at this point the more heeps of humiliations he can stack on the west and the more he can with this conflict affect the presidential election this fall in the states the more that will drive the tempo of the fight unless there is a major collapse before. At this point one would guess Boris Johnson won’t be terribly welcome in Kiev….
Your views are very much appreciated gives more robust clarity to the dynamics of the conflict. We didn’t need to get here…but here we are…
The West wanted the resources and the productive farm land. Soros, bankers and drug companies bought absolute control of a large chunk of western Ukraine to use as a toxic waste dump including radioactive waste.
The west(rothschild & oligarch cartel) wanted(still want) to destroy Russia.
This was & is their number 1 mission/goal.
Ukraine ground & control of Ukraine via Ukrainian puppets or another Jewish President- was just a side bonus.
Ultimately "they" are going to lose everything.
Unfortunate 500,000 to 1,000,000 Ukrainian Slavs had to die.
Hopefully when this is over- all remaining soon to be former Ukrainians, along with their neighbors in Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria & Slovakia will understand what really happened and will turn away from the western globalist plague. I fear Poland is already to far gone with the globalist mind virus and their inate Russophobia. But who knows. One can hope they awake to reality before they get sucked down by the collapsing western empire.
*****
Odessa is and always has been Russian. The fact is the whole of Ukraine is Russian. Under international law Ukraine was allowed automnomy under certain conditions as a buffer between Russia and NATO agression. Yankland defiled and and broke that contract with the Maidan coup.
Юридически Украина все ещё входит в СССР так как делимитации границ до сих пор не проведена. В 2003 был заключён договор, но демаркация так и не была проведена. Поэтому границы между Россией и Украиной нет. Отсылки к границам 1991 поражают своей безграмотностью. Так как единственная граница подтвержденная международным правом это граница СССР.
I don't think Russia will stop until they control Odessa. If you look at the map then this means little will be left of Ukraine by that stage. Odessa is also the booby prize for NATO. Fun and games there in the future.
"The bigger problem for Ukraine, from a force generation perspective, is their increasing reliance on a small roster of premiere brigades which are constantly being shuttled around the front to fight fires and attend to pressing combat tasks. "
Given the poor state of new recruits clearly de-nazification and de-militarisation is now just one task - get rid of the few remaining experienced troops.
Thus a very broad front that commits all remaining Ukrainian troops is exactly what is required.
Ultimately taking places like Kharkov (which I presume Russia is indifferent towards) and Odessa (which I feel Russia wants) is going to be extremely costly in terms of Russian troops and Ukrainian collateral - neither of which Russia has shown any signs of wanting to risk. That means the complete exhaustion of Ukrainian military has to occur first.
Nearly their I think.
Er... This is desperate pro-Russian propaganda. Look. I want Russia to win, but Putin "No Balls", as he is known, will not take the measures required. He stopped Girkin from taking the Donbass in 2014, remember - Putin, a German speaker, knew best. Only he was conned. And so Russia missed the only chance to take the whole of the 8 Russian-speaking provinces at a time when there were only 4,000 battle-ready troops in the Ukraine. Putin's minions, Shoigu included, are not patriots - Shoigu tried to stop the capture of the Crimea in 2014 - but are just corrupt freeloaders. The failure to defenestrate them means the war went wrong from the start. Withdrawal from Kiev before the peace deal was signed? Hmm. Putin was conned (if you keep getting conned, the problem is you). The Ukraine had 6 weeks of ammunition in February 2022, but Putin did nothing to interdict supplies coming over the border from Poland. He didn't shoot down any American satellites playing a part in the war. He didn't destroy the bridges over the Dniepr. He destroyed power distribution facilities in late 2022, but not the power plants themselves - ensuring that it took 2 days and not years for the Ukraine to rebuild. He has allowed a constant parade of Western officials in Kiev. He agreed with Naftali Bennet not to target Zelensky. He bleats "one day I might even target decision-making centres in Kiev, if I find my balls", but does nothing. His "red lines" in the Crimea have disappeared. Apparently you can attack Russia as much as you like, without a response. Putin signed repeated grain deals that included opening routes for Russia's ammonia exports - which didn't happen. Apparently, Putin got conned. Now, 1.5 years after humiliatingly losing Kherson and Kharkov, because Putin didn't want to order a mobilisation in time, Putin now wants to freeze the conflict along current lines (which have hardly shifted for a year and a half). Isn't this guy much worse than Gorbachev? No, you won't be getting Kharkov or Nikolayev or Odessa or Dnepropetrovsk or Zaporozhye city and won't be getting Kherson city back. In the third year of the war, Putin wants to settle for what was gained in the first couple of weeks of the war. IF SO, WHY HAVE SO MANY PEOPLE DIED? What a cowardly moron - but he was brave enough to imprison Girkin, so maybe he is a great leader after all?????
Anyone is welcome to disagree with me or even think my writing is bad, but I do resent being called a “propagandist.” It’s obvious from my writing that I’m not in the employ of the Russian government or anything like that - I’m an enthusiast of history trying my best to write the current history as it happens.
Your analysis and writing are just fine. Better than fine. Carey on! The vast majority of people sadly don’t have a clue about what you are writing about and some have some other issues. To wierd to comprehend so don’t. Keep going, let the foolish believe foolishly.
Ignore posts like this. They probably get their news from US media which IS propaganda. Keep up the good work. I look forward to each of your articles.
Aside from the initial sentences, his analysis includes many assertions of fact.
****
You’re better than fine. Both in analysis and writing style.
I agree with everything you said especially about how the Russian response will continue to infuriate people on the internet 😂
I am not one of those people. I think that having a plan and not overreacting is the optimal way to go and there has been many times when people called for a stronger response which I saw very clearly as 6th columnist and/or hysterics.
However, in the case of the Aramdvir radar it is different. It’s one thing to strike an S400 in Crimea - well within Ukraine’s right after Russia annihilating their AD capability of the mighty Patriots (kidding). It’s another to hit a strategic nuclear early warning radar that has nothing to do with the fight within Russia.
This cannot pass without a strong but calibrated response against the US with a VERY CLEAR message that this crossed a line that must never be crossed. Doesn’t matter who gave the order or pulled the trigger - The United States of America IS RESPONSIBLE and it will be they who pay the price of such actions.
Waiting - or worst not responding - imho, is a strategic mistake. What do you think?
In many online exchanges, I've only been called a propagandist by two groups of people - on-and-off professional journalists, and rah-rah former western military who use their status to sh#tpost standard talking points. Food for thought.
It’s easy to be a Monday morning quarterback. Some people just can’t fathom that there may be complexities to the decisions of the Russian leadership over the last 10 years that they don’t know and/or understand. This guy wants to run Russia like a drunk in a bar brawl.
You have written some brilliant articles like the one on the failed storming of Ugledar by marines, the Schroedinger cat one, or the Bakhmut after-action round-up.
However you did start quite clumsily with a triumphantly pro-Russian piece just on the eve of the Kharkov-Kherson Ukrainian recaptures https://bigserge.substack.com/i/71229625/what-comes-next
"Ukraine simply has no hope of success waging a successful, full scale offensive. For one thing, offensive actions are hard. It’s difficult to successfully coordinate multi-brigade action - so far in Kherson, they are struggling to concentrate more than a battalion at critical points. Russia has combined armed reserves, artillery advantages, and a tremendous edge in airpower. Ukraine cannot achieve strategic objectives - all they can do is trade the lives of their men for temporary tactical successes that can be spun into wins by their propaganda arm.
The failure of the Kherson counteroffensive will accelerate progress towards the two tipping points, both by degrading the Ukrainian army further, and souring westerners on continuing to support Ukraine. Winter and the ensuing economic chaos will do the rest."
You wrote this just one week before the AFU retook over 500 settlements and 12,000 square kilometres of territory in the Kharkov region, and a couple of months after Kherson got reoccupied as well... took you the next 4 or 5 articles to conjure up some cope for that. LOL Kind of unlucky given it's a first article, but I am glad you found the galls to persevere with your substack presence.
You are one of the more reasonable fair voices in all this.
However, that does not change the fact the SMO spawned a lot of "experts" who are taking advantage of people's desire for information in conditions of MSM being totally controlled and practically the equivalent with an opposite sign of the Soviet Pravda. But this is a market, and the people who are attracted to "alternative media" mostly have an unfulfilled need of a savior, someone to rescue them from the shittiness of the conditions in their own countries. And they have latched onto Putin as that savior. So any criticism of him they take as a personal insult.
Never mind the facts. Which, objectively, are that Putin is in real danger of being the last Russian ruler unless he very soon gets his act together, but that does not seem likely because he is in that situation to begin with because of all the weakness he displayed all these years, and not just weakness, there were many times when the Kremlin under him actively worked *against* core Russian interests. The whole Ukraine mess was created in the first place as a result of a long string of such actions.
It also doesn't help that the Western "alternative media" approaches this from a largely libertarian/conservative position, and caters to people who have such leanings themselves. But the real critique of Putin inside Russia is communist (because Putin has always been a neoliberal). So those two things naturally don't mix very well.
Those are the facts. Keep in mind that you are an American who enters this story rather late in its development, and with a focus on the more distant history. The events in the former Soviet space of the 1990s and early 2000s you don't know all that much about.
P.S. Regarding the quality of the alternative commentariat, here is what Larry Johnson posted about the attacks on the EW radars:
https://sonar21.com/friday-update-icj-rules-against-israel-as-ukraine-crosses-a-major-red-line/
Key quote:
>This ICBM warning radar is located in the Federal Republic of Voronezh, which is 150 miles (250 kilometers) east of Belgorod
When I posted this, a lot of people didn't even understand what the issue is here, which is catastrophic on its own.
But I am sure you will see what the issue is immediately...
Yep, I see no bias, hence no propaganda hence no propagandist.
Hence his claim was essentially an ad hominem.
Suggest you go back and re-read the article instead of spewing a hodge-podge of unrelated, including unsubstantiated western propaganda related to 8 years in the past. Latest one being the Reuters BS piece of 'Putin desperately wanting to freeze'. RU has always been open to negotiations, but based on facts on the ground. The west is not. In fact, those seem more like personal opinions. Anyway, let's just nuke London already and be done with it.
The article wasn't about any of that, it's about how AFU will be gradually fractured into digestible pockets, like New York - Toretsk, and Kupyansk front perhaps cut off, and how the Kharkov-Vovchansk-Liptsy operation may be synergic with Kupyansk and Konstantinovka operation in the future. The Ukrainian society is a slow moving train wreck as it tries to squeeze out last of its mobilization potential. This is also partially why Nato-Western leaders are going berserk, and squeezing the last of their escalation potential short of nukes.
If you think that this article is propaganda then you need to look at what actual propaganda looks like. You can start with this Ukrainia update that’s full of Ukraine propaganda and comments galore.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/5/25/2241939/-Ukraine-Update-Putin-claims-he-doesn-t-want-to-capture-Kharkiv-anyway
Then maybe come back and apologize for getting everything wrong.
Chillax, the author is quite neutral and this article isn’t propaganda
David, you are a moron. A low IQ twit. Your talking points are all lifted from MSM. You probably have had all of the available mRNA injections too.
Ignoring the 'propagandist' allegation David raises some good points worth consideration.
I kind of agree with you, I think Putler should have nuked Bakhmutt rather than grinding up Wagner (rest in peace Prioghzin) and sent in rad suited infantry to bayonet the survivors. Still, I've been wrong about a lot of things of this war and as much as it's a cope to say "trust the plan" I really do have to put my faith in the Russian MoD. If they can't beat the tranny omnicidal west, who can?
You sound like Rurik Skywalker to me.
Rurik Skywalker and Paul Craig Roberts are good commentators on this. This slow-paced artillery war is something that was always bound to give the West plenty of time to get more and more involved. The idea that the Ukrainian army will collapse and then the Ukraine will agree to hand over cities that were never conquered including Kharkov and Odessa in a diktat peace is foolish really. As Putin himself says, the only possible negotiations will be ones based on battlefield reality. If Putin doesn't want to take Kharkov, that means Kharkov will be Ukrainian for good. Read Rurik Skywalker for the rest.
It's getting boring to say, but as usual, this is a top-of-the-class analysis from you, Serge.
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I am particularly sensitive to the end of the argument, about how Ukraine will blame NATO for any coming demise, while NATO has not only been an easy-going provider, but has also reached its own limits regarding what it can provide without degrading its own strategic position -- which is not good enough in general to afford losing military capability.
Ukrainians have no love for the West, they have only insults and blame. Yet, they demand limitless love from Western countries. As a citizen of France, I'm still waiting for anyone to explain to me what Ukraine and Ukrainians have ever done for either France or Europe, that would put us in debt towards them. I do however see how they have conspired with the US and the UK, outside of any democratic control either in Ukraine or in Western countries, to set up a war. And I do see how family feuds among Soviet tribes should remain strictly family feuds...
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The West will still try to make this war last much longer, cause, you know... "it hurts Russia and costs no human life", as some prominent US politician put it, thereby defining "human life" as "American life". Russia is gearing up for this, hence the new econometrist defense minister.
I can't see how rational leaders would not see that the longer this lasts, the more the chances of it getting totally out of control increase. I can't see how they would not see that risks of losing control in other parts of the world increase as well. And I can't grasp how they're not worried by the risk of some unpredicted and unpredictable event meant to cause chaos taking place while they're busy making silly plans. If you wonder what I mean when I speak of an unpredictable event, think of the attack on Israel by Hamas, as a reminder.
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France, for instance, is about to go through 3 full months of Olympic and Paralympic games, with national and international gatherings of crowds that will stretch and stress our security forces in every way. What if some actor unrelated to Ukraine or Russia sees an opportunity?
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I fear that the US and the Ukrainian leadership will indeed fight this war till the last Ukrainian. At least, the last Ukrainian who's failed to flee abroad to safety.
History will remember it all with utter disgust.
Well Ukraine is very useful to the West because geographically is a thorn in the side of Russia, the same way Czechoslovakia was to Hitlerite Germany.
Need a gazillion of divisions to watch the border with a hostile Ukraine, and it is easy from there to advance to Moscow, or even better strike it heavily.
A hostile independent Ukraine allied to the West, is like having achieved the goals of Operation Barbarossa, without losing a single man or fire a single shot of your own. Massive starting advantage
Thanks for your comment - I heard, I read somewhere in passing, twitter, and now can not find the link that, Macron has sent out so many troops and policemen to Nouvelle Calédonie that he's short for the adequate policing/security for the Olympic Games, even with the foreign troops already promised
And that he has asked around EU countries to contribute more troops and police
Can you provide any information on this?
Some troops were sent to Nouvelle Calédonie to bring back some order. Their task will be to take over missions of protection of official buildings, so that the Gendarmerie can use more men for its missions of policing.
This is however unlikely to impact the Olympic games. But it will bring some fatigue on the men, many of whom will likely be mobilised during the games as well.
The contribution of foreign troops is meant to be symbolic, and they will not be doing any form of policing as I understand it.
Thank you for this explanation, it is kind of you to take the time
There are so many dimensions to this Ukraine conflict, close attention to only a few aspects can be maintained to attain any understanding
Ukraine's.sole use to the West is as a threat to Russia.
I thnk the U.S. wants it to spin out of control. Quick.
We are 34 TRILLION in debt. What better way to cancel it or partially pay it off than WWIII? What better way to have all mail in ballots? What better way to kill citizens, so their "multiculcutural eutopia" survives.
You get my drift.
The United States can print dollars at will.
Excellent analytical article. The latest news from Kharkov-Liptsy-Volchansk area is AFU has deployed 7 brigades here, a decision heavily influenced by Zelensky. Zelensky said they have 'combat control' in Kharkov, probably a fancy marketing term to encourage US to give more aid. These brigades were mostly pulled out of other lines.
Anyway, supporting Vovchansk seems to be much tougher for AFU than RUAF, especially if RUAF keeps the bridges across the Donets river out of commission. Vovchansk will draw defenders from both Kupyansk and Kharkov, while Belgorod serves as an efficient and short distance hub of supporting RUAF groupings both around Liptsy and Vovchansk. Ultimately one of the crucial factors is who has more fire support like drones and artillery, and can deny enemy usage of their firing support. RUAF has supposedly reduced a lot of AFU artillery in this area, as they forward deployed them to keep taking pot shots on Belgorod even as the front moved south.
Ultimately, perhaps we will see a RU advance down on the east bank of the Donets river to threaten Kharkov-Kupyansk route. In the short term, AFU seems to be attempting some counter-attacks both north of Lipsy and in Vovchansk. If RUAF can defend and repel these attacks, then on the scope including Donbass front this could be seen as a victory, as it gets a lot of AFU bogged down with their attacks in Volchansk and Lipsy.
But AFU are paying the price in Urozhaine-Konstantinovka area, and now Ocheretyne area which may serve as a launching pad to bypass Toretsk-New York agglameration and cut the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. Seems the lines are more scattered for AFU all over the places, compared to RUAF, who is now poised to severe AFU arteries in many places. But ultimately a lot depends on maximizing own firing support while reducing the enemies fire support.
Not suing for peace under these conditions is both grossly immoral and what the GAE demands. It’s no longer Russia wiping out hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians, it’s Biden, Nuland, Blinken and the American congress.
It's far from over. NATO (read US) troops will be in direct combat with Russia before this is over.
If that happens, they won’t fare well.
American Afghanistan veterans volunteered for the war, but quickly ran back when they realized they were fighting a near peer army, not farmers in flip flops.
The kind of human material that is going for the US army these days, aren’t exactly of the highest quality.
Perhaps. I don’t think so, but who knows? Imo it’s more probable that we will introduce tactical nukes when it becomes evident even to the GAE, MIC & Kagan Kult that Ukraine can’t win. Who knows after that?
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Thank you, Serge, for being a truthful antidote to the daily lies of the leftist, Western state media. A needless war that never should have been fought in the first place now grinds inexorably to its logical conclusion with a generation of young Ukrainians the murdered pawns in a cynical game played by the Biden cabal.
^^^^^
Carily. I'm a codger. Not sure what that means.
The west has staggered its military provisioning, accompanied by staggered high profile declarations that it will not supply whatever, in an attempt to use the threat of these various weapons as a great bargaining tool to get Russia to do a western face saving deal that will give the west the breathing space to refight this war down the line. The threats and promises just keep on being ignored by Russia, which is why we keep on getting this so called breach of these imaginary 'red lines'.
The last big threat was troops on the ground en masse, risible under any star. The Russians called the western bluff while making clear exactly what would happen if NATO or whomever did put troops, in these concentrations, into Ukraine. The west backed down. Now we have the threats of terrorist strikes inside Russia. Again Russia has made clear what a proportionate response includes. It includes the recent Kharkov strike with who knows what losses to western operations. We will find out when the smoke clears on this one.
Sooner or later the west must accept that this war, a local Ukrainian civil war with a fascist junta persecuting ethnic Russians and that Russia was eventually going to lose patience with, is not worth the candle. The Ukrainians sold western involvement as a route to getting control of Russian resources. That prospect is a dead parrot. Ukraine is still wittering on about it though- if only the west will enable it to commit sufficient acts of terrorism inside Russia the Russian people will overthrow Putin. Wrong. Russia will overthrow the whole of Ukraine first, and if the challenges to its security still do not stop, take another look at the complicity of the Baltic states. There is no route to victory for the west here. It should back off now while it still has a 'face' to save.
Kissinger had suggested that an alliance of the US and Russia would bring stability across the globe. That alliance would have halted China's revanchism. It would have gotten Iran out of the Middle East. And it would have relegated Europe to its rightful place as a Second World country.
Kissinger's concept was known in foreign policy circles as was the fact that he had been meeting with Trump well before the 2016 election.
I'm going to venture a guess here and say that the whole Russian collusion thing was a successful attempt by entities threatened by a US/Russian alliance to pre-empt such a development from taking place.
I'm also going to guess that if Trump wins in November, he will follow up on Kissinger's advice.
Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated.
Look how he twice cucked out of leaving Syria.
But any mere human in the Oval Office would be easily manipulated. The Cuban Missile Crisis happened because the Soviets resented the US Jupiter Missiles in Turkey - nearly as close to Moscow as Ukraine. So they put missiles in Cuba to show the Yanks what it felt like. The whole crisis blew over as soon as Kennedy actually talked to Khrushschev by phone. Khrushchev told him about the Jupiter missiles in Turkey, which must have surprised kennedy as he had given orders for them to be removed months earlier. The Pentagon simply ignored his order!
Truman put his finger on the key fact.
'When contemplating General Eisenhower winning the Presidential election, Truman said, “He’ll sit here, and he’ll say, ‘Do this! Do that!’ And nothing will happen. Poor Ike—it won’t be a bit like the Army. He’ll find it very frustrating”'.
- Richard E. Neustadt, “Presidential Power, the Politics of Leadership”, p. 9 (1960). https://www.bartleby.com/73/1514.html (Truman also liked to point out that, unlike Ike, he had seen active service and been shot at “by experts”).
I am not sure what you are trying to say, unless you are saying that it doesn't matter whonthe figurehead in the Oval Office is.
Biden is obviously a figurehead - a no-op as we say in the IT biz. Anyone else would be the same, just not so obviously.
That's about the size of it, as the girl said when she put her leg in the stocking.
Even taking that as given, then it won't matter whether Trump is elected or not.
Nope. The war is between US Dollar/New Yorm Jewish Banking Mafia and sovereign Global South. NY Trump is Jewish Mafia puppet: 3 Trumps children married Jews, Roy Cohn (Jewish Blackmail boss) was Trump’s
Mentor, Jeffrey Epstein (successor to Roy Cohn) was Trump’s partner, Sheldon Adelson (mafia casino owner, Israel first dual citizen) Trump’s lead patron who got Trump elected…
One does not simply become the Real Esrate Mogul of Mordor… Trump’s next job in office is to sell hick Americans the tenth war for Israel.
Blinken playing "Rockin'n in the Free World" couldn't be more ironic. The song is hardly an endorsement of the 'rules-based order.'
Especially in a country where elections have been canceled.
^^^
He knows. He doesn't care. Sociopaths are immune to hypocrisy.
I am always amazed by how deep and accurate your analyses are compared to what I read in newspapers. I try to convince my friends to read your articles or even share them with journalists to show how shallow other articles on the matter can be. Unfortunately, everyone dismisses my suggestions because they don’t recognize a well-known name. It’s so frustrating how people can’t judge content based on its quality and instead care only about the name. Anyway, thank you 🙏. I don’t need to know your identity. Your content is amazing.
Big Serge and Simplicicus are the 2 best Ukraine/Russia analyists on Substack.
Agreed though Serge's interest in the war concretizes in just a few articles per year. So Simplicius remains as the real deal though he's probably FSB
I think the author, unlike most western analysts, correctly identifies the purpose of these Russian operations. It is to force the UAF to fight, force it to commit reserves, force it to expend munitions - all in unfavourable circumstances. Where is not so important as how, and ground taken only of real importance in the sense that key terrain lost means a more disadvanatgeous position for the UAF. UAF losses seem to be running at twice the level of a year ago. At present rates of loss there can only be 2 or 3 months left before the UAF is unable to continue the fight in any meaningful way. If these maths are correct, then at that point it is game over apart from the mopping up. And NATO knows this, so I speculate this is the reason behind the recent moves to encourage a ceasefire accompanied/encouraged by moves to attack Russian strategic assets within Russia itself.
Very good summary. Thank you.