At this point, after the Kursk operation turned into a disaster, the war is essentially a mopping up operation...NATO is running on empty, and everyone is sick of Zelensky's begging operation..Meanwhile, the Russian military has been streamlined and modernized, with a lot of deadwood at the top either retired or jailed for corruption...Win/win for Putin...
The tragedy is that while we in old europe know there is nothing behind the emerald curtain, the land of Oz is rubbish, the old Soviet satellite states were flooded with western propaganda back in the day and they actually believe we can do ANYTHING if only we can be persuaded to move our majestic might and bottomless well of resources to Ukraine's benefit.
Slowly the truth is beginning to penetrate. When it really sinks in NATO will find itself not with more NATO, but with more Russia, more RF, as not just Ukraine has a radical change of heart.
and yet, as it seems from outside at least, the old Europe is firmly following the general American course even though it clearly harms Europe economically. What I am saying is that once you zoom in and start looking from a political elites vs citizens perspective, the former one (elites) does not show a tremendous difference - elites are firmly following Washington, old Europe or Ukraine. As for the regular citizens, you might know what citizens of Europe think, and they might even be firmly against what their governments are doing, yet there is no huge protests, riots or revolutions. I also see no huge riots or revolutions in Ukraine, so superficially it is again rather similar. Whether people see what is behind the emerald curtain (as plausibly in Europe) or not (and I am not sure if in Ukraine they do not) is almost a moot point as the result is qualitatively the same. Except of course that Ukrainians die.
Main rationale behind the incursion was most likely a political destabilization in Russia -- it can be read beetween the lines in major western think tanks publications.
that's what I've been thinking, also goes along with their terror campaign of striking civilians and civil infrastructure. That combined with foreign action in Russian society by spies, agitators, and other outside political action, is their main hope which is the collapse of Russia and breaking apart its territory into smaller warring states. The entire point of baiting Russia into entering Ukraine per their plan was the collapse of the state and political stricture of Russian society.
They admit this is their plan very openly for decades now. Its only Russia itself that has been deaf to these calls
Strategic Dissipation as a definitive theme in this essay is spot on. The AFU and it's leadership were always in a tight spot to say the least. Putin's MOD are slow learners but they are learners. Prior NATO expansion without proper military expenditure and real integration was all rainbows and unicorns. However, if the Ukraine can't hold together as a viable entity, it bodes ill for Moldova and Georgia. The economics of Air "Defense" against cheap drones and heavy glide-bombs without strategically 'offensive' bombing is unsustainable. The tragic loss of life and horrific destruction in this ongoing high intensity conflict are heartbreaking, but the numbers' (and the maps) don't lie. A realistic ⚖️ pragmatism needs to seek for some attainable solutions to this "carnage of dissipation" looking forward. The only winners so far are defense contractors and undertakers. 😣 🩻 🩼🔔 ⚙️ 🪖⚰️ 💀🪦 Grace🔥 and Peace🕊️ to you Amigo! Excellent historical insight as always, even if you may have given a bit too much cred 🐻 to Putin's tactical🩸 prowess.
The Russkies quit believing in anything coming out of that crack pipe years ago and organized themselves for victory (how high? I will tell you!) while preparing for any attack of stupid by NATO. All smart and very self protective moves.
The Russians should declare a Janet Yellen Commemoration Day to honor the day her so well organized 'Sanctions" started to bite. A Janet Yellen statue, somewhere, anywhere, would fit the picture. MSM would cover it.
I'm wondering why you say this? As an american it seems most of us have zero interest in continuing to supply Ukraine let alone send troops. Is Europe's attitude completely opposite of this?
Ordinary europeans are thoroughly disengaged, which is where their warmongering cloth headed leaders prefer them to be. Until the war starts hurting these people directly they will remain disengaged, happy to wave the Ukrainian flag if asked, so long as they do not think it is really costing them anything.
All that will change overnight if we have a flood of refugees entering old europe from Kiev et al over the winter. And our cloth head politicos know this already.
In fact Ukraine's plan for victory in 2022 was to crush Donestk in a gruesome massacre. They had the green line from NATO, as they were positive Putin was not domestically strong enough to defend the Donbass. However, Putin had already shown rapid reactivity both in Syria and Crimea, so, it is likely that in 2022, Ukraine was already mandated by NATO aiming to destabilize and eventually politically short circuit and break Russia. The 5th column was ready for action. Navalny, someone? And honestly, given the deep corruption inside the Russian army top commanders, and the pressure from the Russian capitalists, this wouldnt have been impossible.
I mean that, from the beginning, Ukranian plans are NATO plans. If we consider this perspective we can understand why Ukraine seems not to have a plan. But NATO hasnt given in its own plan: Break Russia, or at least, paralyse it, diverting most of the country's energy from the Caspian-Indian corridor, and the silk road connectivity with China. This is the strategic plan for NATO. For them, Ukraine is only a disposable reservoir of slavic flesh, Russian niggers indeed, that will be replaced by Polish flesh, Baltic flesh and so on. Stop Russia from economically merging with Iran and China. That's why peace is impossible. The west think they are winning.
Serge, Assuming economic and/or manpower loses aren't severe enough to force Russia to negotiate, how much of Ukraine do you expect them to take? Kiev and/or Odessa seem like big asks.
Attrition calculus. If my eyes do not deceive me, Ukraine has to resort to ever more draconian tactics to mobilize additional manpower. At some point in 2025, even with the draft age lowered to 18, Ukraine will find itself in the same situation that Germany did in 1945: the Russians at the gates of its capital and front lines manned by old men, children and perhaps womenfolk. That is unless Ukrainian soldiers simply mutiny, as Germans did in 1919, and the front collapses altogether. There is no theory of victory for Ukraine, only loss and larger loss. We are long past the point where Ukraine could have secured an equitable outcome. 2025 will bring a catastrophic collapse, mutiny and capitulation
well if the front collapses then the ability for the Ukraine state to continue to wage war would be in question, in which case the front moves on to the entire country and it would be difficult to fight in anything but pockets from then on.
Yeah. I saw that. That person cannot be an American. Delusional. It looks like Trump will win and he'll attempt to start war in the muddled east or with Iran. Trump will probably try to cut off "ukraine". If the dumbocrats manage to cheat in a huge way and "win", they'll keep supplying "ukraine" with as many weapons as they can scrape together and with billions of dollars because some of them and their obscenely rich donors are closely tied to ukrainian oligarchs and to Der Fuhrer. It's that simple. However, they will not directly intervene or support direct NATO intervention.
The US is going to be politically in turmoil after the election and probably paralyzed as far as decision making goes for months.
I hope NATO is smart enough not to become actively involved in this war. I don't think NATO can win a conventional war fought in Russia's backyard. They would be forced to resort to nuclear weapons. Then we all lose.
When the SMO was first started there were some who asserted that the scenario that Russian leadership favoured Russia's was a long (multi year) war, the premise being that for several reasons, time would weaken the West and strengthen Russia. (Istanbul was a convenient ruse expected to fail.) So far this exact scenario is being played out, and looks to continue barring extreme shocks, which Russia has so far avoided or handled well. Perfect order of response as someone once said. But one never knows what will come next.
By the way, Ukraine's strategy, such as it is, sounds to me very Western/NATO. I don't think there's much of a native element. Ambiguity, diversion, unpredictability, intransigence, maximalism, etc. are I think by design and what NATO prescribes.
Great suggestions on strategy, but perhaps both are true. Those are NATO strategies, but they are equally incoherent in this context. Although some speculated about Russian 5th columns, I think most serious observers of Russian politics were of the view that Putin would have autonomy to mobilize Russian forces and expend the necessary treasure on weaponry. In other words, the idea of a Ukrainian victory was always something of a longshot at best, and realistically just a fantasy.
But the West didn't care, demonstrating that its NATO strategy is unmoored from reality and carried forward by a sort of inertia towards impotence, frozen on that path by completely unrelated domestic political rivals that may otherwise usurp an advantage from those who deviate from the orthodox idiocy.
Kiev should expect nothing more than the 1560 boundaries.
The so called 1991 boundaries are soviet administrative optimization, no more historic that the neocon planners in Washington can make them.
We are regularly assured that Boundaries Are Sacred.
Unless, it's Israel, of course.
In 1560, Kiev was under the Grand Duchy of Lithuania
At this point, after the Kursk operation turned into a disaster, the war is essentially a mopping up operation...NATO is running on empty, and everyone is sick of Zelensky's begging operation..Meanwhile, the Russian military has been streamlined and modernized, with a lot of deadwood at the top either retired or jailed for corruption...Win/win for Putin...
The tragedy is that while we in old europe know there is nothing behind the emerald curtain, the land of Oz is rubbish, the old Soviet satellite states were flooded with western propaganda back in the day and they actually believe we can do ANYTHING if only we can be persuaded to move our majestic might and bottomless well of resources to Ukraine's benefit.
Slowly the truth is beginning to penetrate. When it really sinks in NATO will find itself not with more NATO, but with more Russia, more RF, as not just Ukraine has a radical change of heart.
and yet, as it seems from outside at least, the old Europe is firmly following the general American course even though it clearly harms Europe economically. What I am saying is that once you zoom in and start looking from a political elites vs citizens perspective, the former one (elites) does not show a tremendous difference - elites are firmly following Washington, old Europe or Ukraine. As for the regular citizens, you might know what citizens of Europe think, and they might even be firmly against what their governments are doing, yet there is no huge protests, riots or revolutions. I also see no huge riots or revolutions in Ukraine, so superficially it is again rather similar. Whether people see what is behind the emerald curtain (as plausibly in Europe) or not (and I am not sure if in Ukraine they do not) is almost a moot point as the result is qualitatively the same. Except of course that Ukrainians die.
Main rationale behind the incursion was most likely a political destabilization in Russia -- it can be read beetween the lines in major western think tanks publications.
And a propaganda "victory" to attract additional money.
The incursion did exactly what it was intended to do, change the narrative from Ukrainian defeat to Russian incompetence.
that's what I've been thinking, also goes along with their terror campaign of striking civilians and civil infrastructure. That combined with foreign action in Russian society by spies, agitators, and other outside political action, is their main hope which is the collapse of Russia and breaking apart its territory into smaller warring states. The entire point of baiting Russia into entering Ukraine per their plan was the collapse of the state and political stricture of Russian society.
They admit this is their plan very openly for decades now. Its only Russia itself that has been deaf to these calls
Strategic Dissipation as a definitive theme in this essay is spot on. The AFU and it's leadership were always in a tight spot to say the least. Putin's MOD are slow learners but they are learners. Prior NATO expansion without proper military expenditure and real integration was all rainbows and unicorns. However, if the Ukraine can't hold together as a viable entity, it bodes ill for Moldova and Georgia. The economics of Air "Defense" against cheap drones and heavy glide-bombs without strategically 'offensive' bombing is unsustainable. The tragic loss of life and horrific destruction in this ongoing high intensity conflict are heartbreaking, but the numbers' (and the maps) don't lie. A realistic ⚖️ pragmatism needs to seek for some attainable solutions to this "carnage of dissipation" looking forward. The only winners so far are defense contractors and undertakers. 😣 🩻 🩼🔔 ⚙️ 🪖⚰️ 💀🪦 Grace🔥 and Peace🕊️ to you Amigo! Excellent historical insight as always, even if you may have given a bit too much cred 🐻 to Putin's tactical🩸 prowess.
Excellent article, but get a proofreader. Immanent? Perquisite?
Came to the comments to see if anyone else caught these. Nice work!
The Russkies quit believing in anything coming out of that crack pipe years ago and organized themselves for victory (how high? I will tell you!) while preparing for any attack of stupid by NATO. All smart and very self protective moves.
The Russians should declare a Janet Yellen Commemoration Day to honor the day her so well organized 'Sanctions" started to bite. A Janet Yellen statue, somewhere, anywhere, would fit the picture. MSM would cover it.
I'm wondering why you say this? As an american it seems most of us have zero interest in continuing to supply Ukraine let alone send troops. Is Europe's attitude completely opposite of this?
Because nobody cares what the people think, whether in the US or europe.
Ahh yes... democracy - or something like that
Ordinary europeans are thoroughly disengaged, which is where their warmongering cloth headed leaders prefer them to be. Until the war starts hurting these people directly they will remain disengaged, happy to wave the Ukrainian flag if asked, so long as they do not think it is really costing them anything.
All that will change overnight if we have a flood of refugees entering old europe from Kiev et al over the winter. And our cloth head politicos know this already.
The whole operation seems to be primarily driven by the UK.
Europe is not worth the bones of one U.S. soldier, the festering mass of tribal feuds.
In fact Ukraine's plan for victory in 2022 was to crush Donestk in a gruesome massacre. They had the green line from NATO, as they were positive Putin was not domestically strong enough to defend the Donbass. However, Putin had already shown rapid reactivity both in Syria and Crimea, so, it is likely that in 2022, Ukraine was already mandated by NATO aiming to destabilize and eventually politically short circuit and break Russia. The 5th column was ready for action. Navalny, someone? And honestly, given the deep corruption inside the Russian army top commanders, and the pressure from the Russian capitalists, this wouldnt have been impossible.
I mean that, from the beginning, Ukranian plans are NATO plans. If we consider this perspective we can understand why Ukraine seems not to have a plan. But NATO hasnt given in its own plan: Break Russia, or at least, paralyse it, diverting most of the country's energy from the Caspian-Indian corridor, and the silk road connectivity with China. This is the strategic plan for NATO. For them, Ukraine is only a disposable reservoir of slavic flesh, Russian niggers indeed, that will be replaced by Polish flesh, Baltic flesh and so on. Stop Russia from economically merging with Iran and China. That's why peace is impossible. The west think they are winning.
Serge, Assuming economic and/or manpower loses aren't severe enough to force Russia to negotiate, how much of Ukraine do you expect them to take? Kiev and/or Odessa seem like big asks.
Attrition calculus. If my eyes do not deceive me, Ukraine has to resort to ever more draconian tactics to mobilize additional manpower. At some point in 2025, even with the draft age lowered to 18, Ukraine will find itself in the same situation that Germany did in 1945: the Russians at the gates of its capital and front lines manned by old men, children and perhaps womenfolk. That is unless Ukrainian soldiers simply mutiny, as Germans did in 1919, and the front collapses altogether. There is no theory of victory for Ukraine, only loss and larger loss. We are long past the point where Ukraine could have secured an equitable outcome. 2025 will bring a catastrophic collapse, mutiny and capitulation
well if the front collapses then the ability for the Ukraine state to continue to wage war would be in question, in which case the front moves on to the entire country and it would be difficult to fight in anything but pockets from then on.
Realistically, who would stop them?
Some one in the comments thinks NATO is going to intervene directly once the US elections are over!
Even Zelenskiiy does not think that. Quite the reverse. And NATO-Europe is in a tailspin at the prospect of becoming the latest US dumpee.
Still, it is always good to hear from the other side of the reality divide.
Yeah. I saw that. That person cannot be an American. Delusional. It looks like Trump will win and he'll attempt to start war in the muddled east or with Iran. Trump will probably try to cut off "ukraine". If the dumbocrats manage to cheat in a huge way and "win", they'll keep supplying "ukraine" with as many weapons as they can scrape together and with billions of dollars because some of them and their obscenely rich donors are closely tied to ukrainian oligarchs and to Der Fuhrer. It's that simple. However, they will not directly intervene or support direct NATO intervention.
The US is going to be politically in turmoil after the election and probably paralyzed as far as decision making goes for months.
I hope NATO is smart enough not to become actively involved in this war. I don't think NATO can win a conventional war fought in Russia's backyard. They would be forced to resort to nuclear weapons. Then we all lose.
Haha. "ukraine" was NATO's best army.
When the SMO was first started there were some who asserted that the scenario that Russian leadership favoured Russia's was a long (multi year) war, the premise being that for several reasons, time would weaken the West and strengthen Russia. (Istanbul was a convenient ruse expected to fail.) So far this exact scenario is being played out, and looks to continue barring extreme shocks, which Russia has so far avoided or handled well. Perfect order of response as someone once said. But one never knows what will come next.
By the way, Ukraine's strategy, such as it is, sounds to me very Western/NATO. I don't think there's much of a native element. Ambiguity, diversion, unpredictability, intransigence, maximalism, etc. are I think by design and what NATO prescribes.
Great suggestions on strategy, but perhaps both are true. Those are NATO strategies, but they are equally incoherent in this context. Although some speculated about Russian 5th columns, I think most serious observers of Russian politics were of the view that Putin would have autonomy to mobilize Russian forces and expend the necessary treasure on weaponry. In other words, the idea of a Ukrainian victory was always something of a longshot at best, and realistically just a fantasy.
But the West didn't care, demonstrating that its NATO strategy is unmoored from reality and carried forward by a sort of inertia towards impotence, frozen on that path by completely unrelated domestic political rivals that may otherwise usurp an advantage from those who deviate from the orthodox idiocy.
I think the war is approaching its third winter.
Eloquent text.
Ukrainian “strategy” was / planned and decided in DC and other western capitals
thank you for your perspective - especially the historical context in the present day.