Great analysis, but I would like to offer a dissenting opinion.
The leaks are real AND a disinformation campaign. The data is mostly from real reports, which are mostly based on OSINT and Ukrainian reports, and they paint a mostly accurate picture, although skewed in favor of Ukraine for the reasons that you mentioned. They might even hav…
Great analysis, but I would like to offer a dissenting opinion.
The leaks are real AND a disinformation campaign. The data is mostly from real reports, which are mostly based on OSINT and Ukrainian reports, and they paint a mostly accurate picture, although skewed in favor of Ukraine for the reasons that you mentioned. They might even have been leaked the way the NYT claims.
But, the NYT is not in the journalism business anymore, they are in the distributing US approved narratives business these days. If the NYT broke this story as front page news (now on three separate days) and if the rest of the MSM is following suit, it is because that is what the Biden administration wants to happen. Whatever these leaks started out as, I suspect that they are now a US campaign to:
1) Prepare the American public for more censorship, along the lines of the RESTRICT act.
2) Delay the doomed offensive until this summer when NATO excercises in Europe happen, and maybe NATO will help.
The information in these leaks doesn't tell us much that we didn't already know, and I'm sure that the Russian Intelligence agencies know more than we do. Further, the Russians aren't going to be deceived by any of this, the target audience appears to be the populations of the west, particularly the USA.
Of the 100+ documents that were allegedly leaked, we have perhaps 10-15 that are legible and a few more that are too low resolution to make anything out. The original NYT story claimed that the leaks revealed sensitive information about China and Iran, but the follow up stories give details about Isreal* and South Korea. No images to support any of those claims are still available, if they ever existed. *1 image about Isreal is legible, it talks about possible avenues to get Isreal to supply weapons to Ukraine, but what makes the news is a story about Mossad supporting the judicial reform protests.
The whole thing is fishy, why no satellite intel, why do we only have a few images about Ukraine when the NYT makes claims about others, why did the NYT suddenly start breaking stories that embarrass the US and Ukraine, why make claims about Iran and China but then run stories alleging things about Isreal and S. Korea, and lastly why now, on the eve of the much ballyhooed spring offensive that was destined to fail? Something is off here.
"The leaks are real AND a disinformation campaign."
This has been my thought too. For over a year, the powers that be have been trying to claim that Ukraine is on the verge of a vast offensive and ready to reclaim all their losses, even Crimea. That was still part of the official story right before these leaks. Now, they can claim they were on the cusp of doing something grand until these leaks threw off everything.
My thought is that these are genuine documents but intended to mislead. They paint a dismal picture of the UAF, with the obvious omission of a real casualty figure. They hint that there are few NATO personnel in theatre and that NATO has little real idea of what is going on. They provide detail on the destination of weapon systems publically announced as being delivered - and to that extent can be cross checked. I doubt they provide any information not already known to Russian Military Intelligence who would not accept them at face value anyway. However in my view they have the purpose of deliberately giving an over weak view of UAF capabilities. There are a number of reasons why this might have been done - ie to encourage more $ down the black hole. The timing is suspicious too. I wonder if the real target audience is bloggers like us who hold more realistic opinions on the course of the war and so provide confirmation bias? Won't we be disappointed when the UAF offensive actually succeeds???
Of course, they could be genuine and a real and embarrassing leak. But who and why?
Big Serge, I started a substack and wrote a much longer version of this comment with the 44 images that showed up at Moon of Alabama. I referenced you. Just FYI. And thanks again for the fine write up.
Great analysis, but I would like to offer a dissenting opinion.
The leaks are real AND a disinformation campaign. The data is mostly from real reports, which are mostly based on OSINT and Ukrainian reports, and they paint a mostly accurate picture, although skewed in favor of Ukraine for the reasons that you mentioned. They might even have been leaked the way the NYT claims.
But, the NYT is not in the journalism business anymore, they are in the distributing US approved narratives business these days. If the NYT broke this story as front page news (now on three separate days) and if the rest of the MSM is following suit, it is because that is what the Biden administration wants to happen. Whatever these leaks started out as, I suspect that they are now a US campaign to:
1) Prepare the American public for more censorship, along the lines of the RESTRICT act.
2) Delay the doomed offensive until this summer when NATO excercises in Europe happen, and maybe NATO will help.
The information in these leaks doesn't tell us much that we didn't already know, and I'm sure that the Russian Intelligence agencies know more than we do. Further, the Russians aren't going to be deceived by any of this, the target audience appears to be the populations of the west, particularly the USA.
Of the 100+ documents that were allegedly leaked, we have perhaps 10-15 that are legible and a few more that are too low resolution to make anything out. The original NYT story claimed that the leaks revealed sensitive information about China and Iran, but the follow up stories give details about Isreal* and South Korea. No images to support any of those claims are still available, if they ever existed. *1 image about Isreal is legible, it talks about possible avenues to get Isreal to supply weapons to Ukraine, but what makes the news is a story about Mossad supporting the judicial reform protests.
The whole thing is fishy, why no satellite intel, why do we only have a few images about Ukraine when the NYT makes claims about others, why did the NYT suddenly start breaking stories that embarrass the US and Ukraine, why make claims about Iran and China but then run stories alleging things about Isreal and S. Korea, and lastly why now, on the eve of the much ballyhooed spring offensive that was destined to fail? Something is off here.
"The leaks are real AND a disinformation campaign."
This has been my thought too. For over a year, the powers that be have been trying to claim that Ukraine is on the verge of a vast offensive and ready to reclaim all their losses, even Crimea. That was still part of the official story right before these leaks. Now, they can claim they were on the cusp of doing something grand until these leaks threw off everything.
Exactly, when ''leaks'' happen, just one simple question must be asked: cui bono?
My thought is that these are genuine documents but intended to mislead. They paint a dismal picture of the UAF, with the obvious omission of a real casualty figure. They hint that there are few NATO personnel in theatre and that NATO has little real idea of what is going on. They provide detail on the destination of weapon systems publically announced as being delivered - and to that extent can be cross checked. I doubt they provide any information not already known to Russian Military Intelligence who would not accept them at face value anyway. However in my view they have the purpose of deliberately giving an over weak view of UAF capabilities. There are a number of reasons why this might have been done - ie to encourage more $ down the black hole. The timing is suspicious too. I wonder if the real target audience is bloggers like us who hold more realistic opinions on the course of the war and so provide confirmation bias? Won't we be disappointed when the UAF offensive actually succeeds???
Of course, they could be genuine and a real and embarrassing leak. But who and why?
Big Serge, I started a substack and wrote a much longer version of this comment with the 44 images that showed up at Moon of Alabama. I referenced you. Just FYI. And thanks again for the fine write up.