Thank you for breaking it all down and for this especially apt description of the current state of my country’s military; “...a trillion dollar technobureaucratic jobs program coasting on the residual patriotic fumes of red state American boys.”
The national tragedy for us (USA) is that our own Government, military, State Department and our politicians on both sides of the aisle, and indirectly our vaunted intelligence agencies, in concert with the rotten, corporate MSM, have intentionally pulled wool over the eyes of the American Public, by presenting a rosy view of Ukrainian capabilities and squandering $100+ billion dollars of our hard-earned tax payer money in the process, for well over a year, and bringing us and the world close to a Nuclear World War III (at any moment, since it takes just a single mistake to bring it on) and economic ruin to us the People, in the form of loss of our dollar as reserve currency and a ruined, de-industrialized, pitiful service economy, that condemns most of us to near poverty.
Sorry for the long sentence, but I wanted to include it all in one sentence.
But, if this is not the very definition of TREASON to the Nation, I don't know what is! I am really worried about the future of our children and grandchildren!
The so-called neo-cons and globalists, more correctly called neo-colonists, cannot bring themselves to accept and co-exist with a multi-polar world! To maintain their "rules-based" hegemonic control over the world, they feed a voracious MICIMAC (Military, industrial, Congress, Intelligence, Media, Academia Complex - a term coined by Ray McGovern instead of just MIC) more than $1 trillion a year, hollowing out our own physical, industrial and social infrastructure in the process. All for what?
To fight evil Russians and wily Chinese? Who mind their own business, literally, and never want to fight with USA? WHY? What form of insanity is this? Why can't we be friends with Russia (with most abundant natural resources in the world) and China (a manufacturing juggernaut and the leading economy in the world)? Why can't we stop spending on a 13-carrier Navy and 800+ foreign bases, mind our own business (literally), and live and prosper in a multipolar world? Why not spend that money on our own people and society, instead of squandering them on wunderwaffen (costly but useless wonder weapons like F35 fighters), which will never be used, without the world being destroyed in a nuclear holocaust?
We have two oceans and two friendly neighbors. We don't need much to defend ourselves against potential (if any) enemies. Rename the Department of Defense as War Department (as it used to be called), cut 70% of its budget, abolish NATO, AUKUS ..., bring our troops home and JUST rebuild our Nation and mind our own business! What a splendid Nation and a paradigm for all, we would be!
I’m curious. Why is the ‘leak’ a big deal? Anyone, paying attention, should know the reality in the battlefield …and does not need a’leak’ to confirm ….rus have the artillary, air defence, and industrial war production. They will decide what will the final outcome look like. Need i mention the rus have the leadership, the seriousness of intention, and the conviction that the west is a nest of vipers that are not agreement capable. Imagine, in the crucible of proxy war, nato has the effrontary of adding a further member, Finland, situated smack up against russia’s border!
As has been said, “Truth is stranger than fiction” . What fiction writer would have a new nato member added in the heigth of proxy war in ukraine, where the issue was / is the positioning of nato on russia’s border.
Great analysis, but I would like to offer a dissenting opinion.
The leaks are real AND a disinformation campaign. The data is mostly from real reports, which are mostly based on OSINT and Ukrainian reports, and they paint a mostly accurate picture, although skewed in favor of Ukraine for the reasons that you mentioned. They might even have been leaked the way the NYT claims.
But, the NYT is not in the journalism business anymore, they are in the distributing US approved narratives business these days. If the NYT broke this story as front page news (now on three separate days) and if the rest of the MSM is following suit, it is because that is what the Biden administration wants to happen. Whatever these leaks started out as, I suspect that they are now a US campaign to:
1) Prepare the American public for more censorship, along the lines of the RESTRICT act.
2) Delay the doomed offensive until this summer when NATO excercises in Europe happen, and maybe NATO will help.
The information in these leaks doesn't tell us much that we didn't already know, and I'm sure that the Russian Intelligence agencies know more than we do. Further, the Russians aren't going to be deceived by any of this, the target audience appears to be the populations of the west, particularly the USA.
Of the 100+ documents that were allegedly leaked, we have perhaps 10-15 that are legible and a few more that are too low resolution to make anything out. The original NYT story claimed that the leaks revealed sensitive information about China and Iran, but the follow up stories give details about Isreal* and South Korea. No images to support any of those claims are still available, if they ever existed. *1 image about Isreal is legible, it talks about possible avenues to get Isreal to supply weapons to Ukraine, but what makes the news is a story about Mossad supporting the judicial reform protests.
The whole thing is fishy, why no satellite intel, why do we only have a few images about Ukraine when the NYT makes claims about others, why did the NYT suddenly start breaking stories that embarrass the US and Ukraine, why make claims about Iran and China but then run stories alleging things about Isreal and S. Korea, and lastly why now, on the eve of the much ballyhooed spring offensive that was destined to fail? Something is off here.
1. Probably nobody will be fired for the data breach / leak
2. Russia will clean up in Ukraine
3. The dummies in Congress will send American kids to die in Taiwan with inadequate weapon systems
These are all symptoms of common diseases:
- stovepiping
- over-classification to hide the truth
- a collapsed US education system*
- a collapsed sense of morality
* tie in a lack of historic knowledge at DoD and State, a lack of the ability to make plans (other than to oppress US citizens), and a lack of geopolitical understanding
I wonder how long it will take before any of the political elites manages to say "Russia has defeated NATO." Specifically before US kids are sent to die in Taiwan.
Looking at the bigger picture, this NATO-led proxy war against Russia had two (2) components: 1. Economic warfare via all-out sanctions with the intention of crippling the Russian economy and 2. Military warfare via proxy Ukraine with the intention of somehow winning a ground war against...Russia. Seeing how catastrophically 1. turned out, is the complete ineptitude displayed by 2. a big shocker? I'd bet 5 cents (my maximum for a sure bet) on the authenticity of these leaked documents and the overall accuracy of the above analysis. The only winner is all of this is the U.S. Military Industrial Complex and its various State Department and Military associates. Biggest loser is Ukraine and the average U.S. taxpayer. It's a giant scam.
Your alertness to words such as using “Biopsy” is greatly appreciated since we are dealing with perhaps terminally sick but alive patient, afflicted with “Ukraine-NATO malignancy”.
Based on your analysis, I conclude following.
1. Ukraine-NATO will probably be defeated by Summer, at the latest in Fall season of 2023.
2 This will makes next six months perhaps most dangerous period in modern human history, outcome of which depends on whether NATO will accept the defeat or escalate to WW3 with distinct possibility of turning Nuclear and human extinct.
3. If NATO accepts defeat, how can Taiwan project will go ahead, especially after disasters in Afghanistan and West Asia/ Middle East?
4. If the humanity dodges Nuclear War, the World will inexorably progress toward Multipolar World lead by Sovereign States, most if not all of whom were recipients of aggression from Colonial and Neo-Colonial powers for hundreds of years.
5. This will have huge implications for longevity of Dollar Reserve status and servicing of enormous debt accumulated by the so called Developed countries, most if not all of them are Colonial/Neocolonial powers.
6. Either way, we are going through violent movements in Geopolitical Tectonic plates.
Very interesting times for History making education in Real time!
Well done. I agree with your analysis that Ukraine has little chance of winning anything with this alleged "offensive" (which as Andrei Martyanov argues is not really an "offensive" at all) and zero chance of reaching Melitopol or "cutting the land bridge". As Brian Berletic says, even if they do succeed at that, what will be left of their forces to do what beyond that? Other than achieve another PR "victory"...
The first and foremost conclusion I would draw from this if I was the Russian DOD is that it is a disiinformation campaign. The Russians can of course fact check it themsleves. How on earth can the USA claim to know Russian troop concentrations and not know Ukrainian troop numbers? That is insane. NATO is running this war and we should assume they have all of this information, otherwise how can they determine armament requirements? Don't fall into the trap.
Thank you, as always. This paragraph sums it up for me: “It has long been apparent that the Kiev regime has no real plan, no firm path to victory, and only a tenuous and unfriendly relationship with reality. Far more terrifying is the thought that the Pentagon is much the same.”
Masterful job here, Big Serge! I spent 20+ years in the US defense establishment, much of which focused on the former Soviet Union. You’re analysis is simply superb!
My take on why the casualties and Ukraine disposition reporting is bad isn't because of bad/lack of Intel. It's because this was probably prepared for politicians and the Pentagon/CIA doesn't want to publish the real figures (because they're terrible) so they drop in public data and highlight the artillery and AD needs.. to get funding for them.
Regarding US intel reliance on Ukrainian sources, Larry Johnson reported his informants in US intel had said as much several months ago. He, too, was stunned.
During the preparations for the US war against Iraq the Pentagon leaked like a sieve...And all the leaks sucked the media into believing The US had not learned "the lessons of Vietnam" - dont commit ground troops (It did learn it had to keep the Media on a leash, use the Media)...A few of the leaks were "thousands of body bags were being shipped...", "all available hospital wards in Germany, Italy, etc, was being booked..." The Pentagon used the leaks to hide its actual battle plan...
The Pentagon had learned - No Land Invasion ! It intended to use its superior air power to bomb the bastards back to the Stone Age, then sending in troops - to mop up...
From 12-24 June 2023 USNATO will conduct 'Natos largest ever aerial war games', mostly in Germany (+ Estonia, Romania). The "games" will involve 10,000 soldiers and 270 aircraft...The US will supply 100 aircraft ...
The US has already prepositioned troops, and missile bases, in Poland and Romania...A lot of weaponry supplied never made it to the frontlines, being held in storage for later use...
Zdelensky recently asked for US warplanes...The war games provide cover for providing 100 US aircraft...
The question is, Is it USNATOs plan to sucker Russia deep into Ukraine, before striking ?
"The proxy has become the parasite."
Brilliant.
Thank you for breaking it all down and for this especially apt description of the current state of my country’s military; “...a trillion dollar technobureaucratic jobs program coasting on the residual patriotic fumes of red state American boys.”
The national tragedy for us (USA) is that our own Government, military, State Department and our politicians on both sides of the aisle, and indirectly our vaunted intelligence agencies, in concert with the rotten, corporate MSM, have intentionally pulled wool over the eyes of the American Public, by presenting a rosy view of Ukrainian capabilities and squandering $100+ billion dollars of our hard-earned tax payer money in the process, for well over a year, and bringing us and the world close to a Nuclear World War III (at any moment, since it takes just a single mistake to bring it on) and economic ruin to us the People, in the form of loss of our dollar as reserve currency and a ruined, de-industrialized, pitiful service economy, that condemns most of us to near poverty.
Sorry for the long sentence, but I wanted to include it all in one sentence.
But, if this is not the very definition of TREASON to the Nation, I don't know what is! I am really worried about the future of our children and grandchildren!
The so-called neo-cons and globalists, more correctly called neo-colonists, cannot bring themselves to accept and co-exist with a multi-polar world! To maintain their "rules-based" hegemonic control over the world, they feed a voracious MICIMAC (Military, industrial, Congress, Intelligence, Media, Academia Complex - a term coined by Ray McGovern instead of just MIC) more than $1 trillion a year, hollowing out our own physical, industrial and social infrastructure in the process. All for what?
To fight evil Russians and wily Chinese? Who mind their own business, literally, and never want to fight with USA? WHY? What form of insanity is this? Why can't we be friends with Russia (with most abundant natural resources in the world) and China (a manufacturing juggernaut and the leading economy in the world)? Why can't we stop spending on a 13-carrier Navy and 800+ foreign bases, mind our own business (literally), and live and prosper in a multipolar world? Why not spend that money on our own people and society, instead of squandering them on wunderwaffen (costly but useless wonder weapons like F35 fighters), which will never be used, without the world being destroyed in a nuclear holocaust?
We have two oceans and two friendly neighbors. We don't need much to defend ourselves against potential (if any) enemies. Rename the Department of Defense as War Department (as it used to be called), cut 70% of its budget, abolish NATO, AUKUS ..., bring our troops home and JUST rebuild our Nation and mind our own business! What a splendid Nation and a paradigm for all, we would be!
I’m curious. Why is the ‘leak’ a big deal? Anyone, paying attention, should know the reality in the battlefield …and does not need a’leak’ to confirm ….rus have the artillary, air defence, and industrial war production. They will decide what will the final outcome look like. Need i mention the rus have the leadership, the seriousness of intention, and the conviction that the west is a nest of vipers that are not agreement capable. Imagine, in the crucible of proxy war, nato has the effrontary of adding a further member, Finland, situated smack up against russia’s border!
As has been said, “Truth is stranger than fiction” . What fiction writer would have a new nato member added in the heigth of proxy war in ukraine, where the issue was / is the positioning of nato on russia’s border.
Hubris.
Great analysis, but I would like to offer a dissenting opinion.
The leaks are real AND a disinformation campaign. The data is mostly from real reports, which are mostly based on OSINT and Ukrainian reports, and they paint a mostly accurate picture, although skewed in favor of Ukraine for the reasons that you mentioned. They might even have been leaked the way the NYT claims.
But, the NYT is not in the journalism business anymore, they are in the distributing US approved narratives business these days. If the NYT broke this story as front page news (now on three separate days) and if the rest of the MSM is following suit, it is because that is what the Biden administration wants to happen. Whatever these leaks started out as, I suspect that they are now a US campaign to:
1) Prepare the American public for more censorship, along the lines of the RESTRICT act.
2) Delay the doomed offensive until this summer when NATO excercises in Europe happen, and maybe NATO will help.
The information in these leaks doesn't tell us much that we didn't already know, and I'm sure that the Russian Intelligence agencies know more than we do. Further, the Russians aren't going to be deceived by any of this, the target audience appears to be the populations of the west, particularly the USA.
Of the 100+ documents that were allegedly leaked, we have perhaps 10-15 that are legible and a few more that are too low resolution to make anything out. The original NYT story claimed that the leaks revealed sensitive information about China and Iran, but the follow up stories give details about Isreal* and South Korea. No images to support any of those claims are still available, if they ever existed. *1 image about Isreal is legible, it talks about possible avenues to get Isreal to supply weapons to Ukraine, but what makes the news is a story about Mossad supporting the judicial reform protests.
The whole thing is fishy, why no satellite intel, why do we only have a few images about Ukraine when the NYT makes claims about others, why did the NYT suddenly start breaking stories that embarrass the US and Ukraine, why make claims about Iran and China but then run stories alleging things about Isreal and S. Korea, and lastly why now, on the eve of the much ballyhooed spring offensive that was destined to fail? Something is off here.
The best is yet to come:
1. Probably nobody will be fired for the data breach / leak
2. Russia will clean up in Ukraine
3. The dummies in Congress will send American kids to die in Taiwan with inadequate weapon systems
These are all symptoms of common diseases:
- stovepiping
- over-classification to hide the truth
- a collapsed US education system*
- a collapsed sense of morality
* tie in a lack of historic knowledge at DoD and State, a lack of the ability to make plans (other than to oppress US citizens), and a lack of geopolitical understanding
I wonder how long it will take before any of the political elites manages to say "Russia has defeated NATO." Specifically before US kids are sent to die in Taiwan.
Looking at the bigger picture, this NATO-led proxy war against Russia had two (2) components: 1. Economic warfare via all-out sanctions with the intention of crippling the Russian economy and 2. Military warfare via proxy Ukraine with the intention of somehow winning a ground war against...Russia. Seeing how catastrophically 1. turned out, is the complete ineptitude displayed by 2. a big shocker? I'd bet 5 cents (my maximum for a sure bet) on the authenticity of these leaked documents and the overall accuracy of the above analysis. The only winner is all of this is the U.S. Military Industrial Complex and its various State Department and Military associates. Biggest loser is Ukraine and the average U.S. taxpayer. It's a giant scam.
Excellent Analysis.
Your alertness to words such as using “Biopsy” is greatly appreciated since we are dealing with perhaps terminally sick but alive patient, afflicted with “Ukraine-NATO malignancy”.
Based on your analysis, I conclude following.
1. Ukraine-NATO will probably be defeated by Summer, at the latest in Fall season of 2023.
2 This will makes next six months perhaps most dangerous period in modern human history, outcome of which depends on whether NATO will accept the defeat or escalate to WW3 with distinct possibility of turning Nuclear and human extinct.
3. If NATO accepts defeat, how can Taiwan project will go ahead, especially after disasters in Afghanistan and West Asia/ Middle East?
4. If the humanity dodges Nuclear War, the World will inexorably progress toward Multipolar World lead by Sovereign States, most if not all of whom were recipients of aggression from Colonial and Neo-Colonial powers for hundreds of years.
5. This will have huge implications for longevity of Dollar Reserve status and servicing of enormous debt accumulated by the so called Developed countries, most if not all of them are Colonial/Neocolonial powers.
6. Either way, we are going through violent movements in Geopolitical Tectonic plates.
Very interesting times for History making education in Real time!
Well done. I agree with your analysis that Ukraine has little chance of winning anything with this alleged "offensive" (which as Andrei Martyanov argues is not really an "offensive" at all) and zero chance of reaching Melitopol or "cutting the land bridge". As Brian Berletic says, even if they do succeed at that, what will be left of their forces to do what beyond that? Other than achieve another PR "victory"...
The first and foremost conclusion I would draw from this if I was the Russian DOD is that it is a disiinformation campaign. The Russians can of course fact check it themsleves. How on earth can the USA claim to know Russian troop concentrations and not know Ukrainian troop numbers? That is insane. NATO is running this war and we should assume they have all of this information, otherwise how can they determine armament requirements? Don't fall into the trap.
Wow! It’s almost like the US intended for Ukraine to be destroyed from the start.
Something - oh I dunno - an Obama Clinton Biden conspiracy with lots to hide in Ukrainian files might have preplanned to look like a cluster***k.
Just wondering.
Thank you, as always. This paragraph sums it up for me: “It has long been apparent that the Kiev regime has no real plan, no firm path to victory, and only a tenuous and unfriendly relationship with reality. Far more terrifying is the thought that the Pentagon is much the same.”
Masterful job here, Big Serge! I spent 20+ years in the US defense establishment, much of which focused on the former Soviet Union. You’re analysis is simply superb!
My take on why the casualties and Ukraine disposition reporting is bad isn't because of bad/lack of Intel. It's because this was probably prepared for politicians and the Pentagon/CIA doesn't want to publish the real figures (because they're terrible) so they drop in public data and highlight the artillery and AD needs.. to get funding for them.
Regarding US intel reliance on Ukrainian sources, Larry Johnson reported his informants in US intel had said as much several months ago. He, too, was stunned.
What a Timely Leak !
During the preparations for the US war against Iraq the Pentagon leaked like a sieve...And all the leaks sucked the media into believing The US had not learned "the lessons of Vietnam" - dont commit ground troops (It did learn it had to keep the Media on a leash, use the Media)...A few of the leaks were "thousands of body bags were being shipped...", "all available hospital wards in Germany, Italy, etc, was being booked..." The Pentagon used the leaks to hide its actual battle plan...
The Pentagon had learned - No Land Invasion ! It intended to use its superior air power to bomb the bastards back to the Stone Age, then sending in troops - to mop up...
From 12-24 June 2023 USNATO will conduct 'Natos largest ever aerial war games', mostly in Germany (+ Estonia, Romania). The "games" will involve 10,000 soldiers and 270 aircraft...The US will supply 100 aircraft ...
The US has already prepositioned troops, and missile bases, in Poland and Romania...A lot of weaponry supplied never made it to the frontlines, being held in storage for later use...
Zdelensky recently asked for US warplanes...The war games provide cover for providing 100 US aircraft...
The question is, Is it USNATOs plan to sucker Russia deep into Ukraine, before striking ?