You are missing a substack in your list: https://aurelien2022.substack.com/
He is a frequent commenter on NC and worked for decades as high level public servant in the UK Foreign Office. He explains in many postings why rearming Europe and the West is an insurmountable task.
Even the US will struggle a bunch. And then is the logistics and …
He is a frequent commenter on NC and worked for decades as high level public servant in the UK Foreign Office. He explains in many postings why rearming Europe and the West is an insurmountable task.
Even the US will struggle a bunch. And then is the logistics and the long supply chain to Ukraine. As for US / NATO directly fighting a land war with Russia, I really want to see that happening. I decided long time ago that it would cost Russians more to nuke my little harbour than any potential gains, so I am prepared to watch from a certain safe distance for the acute phase of a nuclear war.
In the novel The Years of Rice and Salt, the white race is almost entirely eradicated by the Black Plague in the 1200s. The novel is about the course of history after that. A WWIII would be something similar... Would the humanity and the world be better off or not is anybody's guess.
I read Aurelien, I read a lot of things written by a lot of people, real subject matter experts, amateurs, purported experts and wannabes, supporters of Russia and Ukraine. So far, very few of their confident predictions on either side have borne fruit.
For that matter, I recall the predictions of experts in the runup to WWI. In particular, it was widely believed by educated and informed people that any general European war could necessarily last a couple of months at most, because all sides would quickly run out of money. These were not stupid or uninformed people who espoused this belief, and the thing is, they were correct, if governments in WWI continued to operate according to the constraints of pre WWI finance.
For that matter, the US entry into WWI was brushed off, for the same reasons that you listed. In another historical irony, the entry of Romania onto the Entente side was considered far more consequential, convincing the German General Staff that they surely were doomed. Somehow, King Carol's army proved to be less than a juggernaut.
So I take any predictions, including my own, including and especially those that tell me what I want to hear, with a grain of salt, and I look only to facts as they are and what I know happened. Not as I wish or hope them to be.
Otherwise, your post seems to be an argument that WWIII cannot happen because it would be bad. Well, I got news - we in the West are led by sociopaths, and nowhere is it written that The Good Guys Always Win.
I didn't say that WWIII cannot happen. It is already happen, but is only in an incipient phase. I can see it as having good odds. Just now are reports of a stray Russian missile hitting Poland and killing 2.
What I have not seen evidence is on US capability to ramp up production. On the contrary. And you don't provide evidence on supporting this ability.
Also, the west does not have control of natural resources any longer...
As for Romania, it was surrounded from 3 parts, then Russians had the revolution, and the west did not start operations in Greece as promised.
That legislation is for an legislative order of goods, it does not prove that those companies can deliver. Do you have some proof Commenters on that post came with some information contradicting this ability.
Who, the US government? Because so far I see them just going with threats,, o nuclear war, when in fact they don't know what will happen when the 300000 strong Russian army comes online....
From my understanding, the productive capacity for military equipment in the west is not that great, especially not at levels demanded by an actual land war with Russia.
The production lines of the past are scrap metal and the buildings have been demolished. People have retired or moved somewhere else or died.
US is buying 155 shell rounds from Korea for god sake. France had issues delivering to Denmark quality 155 mm howitzers (less than 10) and being refused, one by one are sent to Ukraine.
The war in Ukraine demonstrates that war between peer or near-peer adversaries demands the existence of a technically advanced, mass scale, industrial-age production capability. The Russian onslaught consumes ammunition at rates that massively exceed US forecasts and ammunition production. For the US to act as the arsenal of democracy in defence of Ukraine, there must be a major look at the manner and the scale at which the US organises its industrial base. This situation is especially critical because behind the Russian invasion stands the world’s manufacturing capital – China. As the US begins to expend more and more of its stockpiles to keep Ukraine in the war, China has yet to provide any meaningful military assistance to Russia. The West must assume that China will not allow Russia to be defeated, especially due to a lack of ammunition. If competition between autocracies and democracies has really entered a military phase, then the arsenal of democracy must first radically improve its approach to the production of materiel in wartime."
Have you looked into what is included in the billions provided to "Ukraine" by the US, for instance? Brian Bereletic from the New Atlas has the habit to look into the US legislation and see the amounts and where the money goes. Only a fraction actually goes to Ukraine. And a lot of that covers "training". Ukraine also needs a lot of money just to prop its economy (salaries, pensions, public services and infrastructure, etc).
So yeah. All that money won't buy a single 330kV transformer destroyed by the Russians, or a Diesel train engine on wide tracks...
You are missing a substack in your list: https://aurelien2022.substack.com/
He is a frequent commenter on NC and worked for decades as high level public servant in the UK Foreign Office. He explains in many postings why rearming Europe and the West is an insurmountable task.
Even the US will struggle a bunch. And then is the logistics and the long supply chain to Ukraine. As for US / NATO directly fighting a land war with Russia, I really want to see that happening. I decided long time ago that it would cost Russians more to nuke my little harbour than any potential gains, so I am prepared to watch from a certain safe distance for the acute phase of a nuclear war.
In the novel The Years of Rice and Salt, the white race is almost entirely eradicated by the Black Plague in the 1200s. The novel is about the course of history after that. A WWIII would be something similar... Would the humanity and the world be better off or not is anybody's guess.
I read Aurelien, I read a lot of things written by a lot of people, real subject matter experts, amateurs, purported experts and wannabes, supporters of Russia and Ukraine. So far, very few of their confident predictions on either side have borne fruit.
For that matter, I recall the predictions of experts in the runup to WWI. In particular, it was widely believed by educated and informed people that any general European war could necessarily last a couple of months at most, because all sides would quickly run out of money. These were not stupid or uninformed people who espoused this belief, and the thing is, they were correct, if governments in WWI continued to operate according to the constraints of pre WWI finance.
For that matter, the US entry into WWI was brushed off, for the same reasons that you listed. In another historical irony, the entry of Romania onto the Entente side was considered far more consequential, convincing the German General Staff that they surely were doomed. Somehow, King Carol's army proved to be less than a juggernaut.
So I take any predictions, including my own, including and especially those that tell me what I want to hear, with a grain of salt, and I look only to facts as they are and what I know happened. Not as I wish or hope them to be.
Otherwise, your post seems to be an argument that WWIII cannot happen because it would be bad. Well, I got news - we in the West are led by sociopaths, and nowhere is it written that The Good Guys Always Win.
I didn't say that WWIII cannot happen. It is already happen, but is only in an incipient phase. I can see it as having good odds. Just now are reports of a stray Russian missile hitting Poland and killing 2.
What I have not seen evidence is on US capability to ramp up production. On the contrary. And you don't provide evidence on supporting this ability.
Also, the west does not have control of natural resources any longer...
As for Romania, it was surrounded from 3 parts, then Russians had the revolution, and the west did not start operations in Greece as promised.
If you think that US weapons production is already maxed out, then you are delusional. But if you insist:
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/11/congressional-amendment-opens-floodgates-for-war-profiteers-and-a-major-ground-war-on-russia.html
Otherwise, you argue with points that I didn't make.
That legislation is for an legislative order of goods, it does not prove that those companies can deliver. Do you have some proof Commenters on that post came with some information contradicting this ability.
I'm sure that they're just spouting off, nothing to fear, hope is a strategy. ;)
Who, the US government? Because so far I see them just going with threats,, o nuclear war, when in fact they don't know what will happen when the 300000 strong Russian army comes online....
As if that was all that was needed to tip the balance. As it is, Russia already has logistic problems, and that so close to their borders.
One need not be Napoleon, or even von Falkenhayn, to see that the productive capacity of the West is much higher than that of Russia.
Both the Germans and Japanese in WWII recognized that if they were to win, the war would have had to be short.
From my understanding, the productive capacity for military equipment in the west is not that great, especially not at levels demanded by an actual land war with Russia.
The production lines of the past are scrap metal and the buildings have been demolished. People have retired or moved somewhere else or died.
US is buying 155 shell rounds from Korea for god sake. France had issues delivering to Denmark quality 155 mm howitzers (less than 10) and being refused, one by one are sent to Ukraine.
Didn't you read this article from RUSI?
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare
"Conclusion
The war in Ukraine demonstrates that war between peer or near-peer adversaries demands the existence of a technically advanced, mass scale, industrial-age production capability. The Russian onslaught consumes ammunition at rates that massively exceed US forecasts and ammunition production. For the US to act as the arsenal of democracy in defence of Ukraine, there must be a major look at the manner and the scale at which the US organises its industrial base. This situation is especially critical because behind the Russian invasion stands the world’s manufacturing capital – China. As the US begins to expend more and more of its stockpiles to keep Ukraine in the war, China has yet to provide any meaningful military assistance to Russia. The West must assume that China will not allow Russia to be defeated, especially due to a lack of ammunition. If competition between autocracies and democracies has really entered a military phase, then the arsenal of democracy must first radically improve its approach to the production of materiel in wartime."
Lol, so that's why Ukraine is getting another 40 billion in essence than a year.
Keep telling yourself that.
Have you looked into what is included in the billions provided to "Ukraine" by the US, for instance? Brian Bereletic from the New Atlas has the habit to look into the US legislation and see the amounts and where the money goes. Only a fraction actually goes to Ukraine. And a lot of that covers "training". Ukraine also needs a lot of money just to prop its economy (salaries, pensions, public services and infrastructure, etc).
So yeah. All that money won't buy a single 330kV transformer destroyed by the Russians, or a Diesel train engine on wide tracks...