366 Comments

To all those who may be dooming or wildly rejoicing. This war is not between Russia and Ukraine. This is not even war, this is a special military operation and for good reason. Let me elaborate. First things first this struggle is between American empire and Russia, not Russia and the west, and certainly not Russia and Ukraine. The empire chose to precipitate matters maybe as an example for China or to have Russia defeated before attacking China. Regardless why, what was intended was for Russia to come in all guns blazing takeover all of Ukraine in short order and THEN get mired in a long bloody insurgency loosing men materiel and treasure. The freezing of assets and overwhelming sanctions would then further deteriorate the internal conditions such as that political instability would set in finally resulting in regime change. Russia could then be raped dismembered devoured by the empire at leisure. This is why the special military operation is a special military operation and not a war. The objective here is not simply to defeat the Ukrainian army, it is rather designed to bring maximum damage to the empire while keeping the costs for Russia manageable. The Russian campaign is running on simmer being careful not to let the situation boil over at any point. The pace of operations is glacial on purpose. The longer the conflict is drawn out the more harm the empire and it's allies will endure. Their policies will result in self inflicted pain, their hubris will not let them walk back to more sensible positions. The empire is trapped in a pit it has dug, its allies are mere hostages. Is there a point of pain that can be reached where the citizens of Europe may demand of their leaders to revolt against the empire? Who knows if such a point exists, if it is reached this winter or the next? However there is another sphere where the battle is taking place and that is in the nation's that are not in the hallowed west. Here in the nations some poor and some not so much an evaluation of prospects is being done. Siding with the west is safe from reprisals but in the emerging economic scenario might be tantamount to suicide. Even the dimmest leaders know their fate if they fail to keep their citizens fed and supplied with essentials. Considerable shifts have already materialised and more are sure to follow as things get tighter. The empire potentially losing European allies or losing influence across the globe are far more valuable objectives than a quick roll up of the Ukrainian army.

On the tactical side the Ukrainian leadership continues to throw it's troops onto prepared Russian defences and continues to suffer unfavorable casualty ratio of at least 1 to 5 if not more. Can Ukraine continue this frivolous behaviour for another six months a year two years? Can they continue to be supplied for as long? Can the West ,will the west continue to foot the bill to keep Ukraine running and fighting? How many more Ukrainian refugees will Europe accomodate? 10 mln?20 mln?

Russian aim of denazification will be accomplished either by destruction on the contact line of those willing to fight or by emigration of those unwilling to fight.

Demilitarization will be complete once the western support dries up. Almost all Ukrainian military industrial enterprises have already been destroyed and whatever remains on the field will eventually be destroyed.

In the meantime we may see many Russian retreats and setbacks to give the enemy glimpses of victory, to keep him fighting and dying. In any case Kiev has no other option, for the fear of losing support, neither do their sponsors who are ideological bent on destroying Russia.

A multi pronged combined arms high intensity manoeuvering operation would be interesting to watch for purely academic purposes, however if the preceding hypothesis is even somewhat correct then we are going to have to wait a considerable time before this special military operation terminates.

P.S. Also of equal interest are the actions of the empire.

How far will they go? How do they extract themselves if

they ever do?

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Alternative theory at the operational tactical level.

Now that no one can cross the Dnieper in the Kherson sector Kiev will be eager to move the considerable forces amassed here to opposite Donestk and Luhansk.

This will afford Russia an opportunity to shut the gate behind the bulk of the Ukrainian forces by dropping the remaining bridges across the Dnieper cutting off logistical supply coming from the west. The bridges need not be completely destroyed just damaged sufficiently to make supply difficult. General Armageddon does favor Calibers Iskanders and Russia has stopped shying away from destroying infrastructure. Do note that Russia has been busy moving around a lot of combat equipment all around the periphery of Ukraine. This combat power can be brought to bear from multiple axes north south and east. The Ukrainian forces east of the Dnieper will find themselves unsupported and potentially under attack from all sides. If a surrender complete or negotiated is not forthcoming then destruction of the major part of Kiev's forces would follow.

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'dropping the remaining bridges across the Dnieper' simply isn't militarily possible by Russia. Ukraine has air defenses in place at these cities. 60% of incoming missles get shot down. The few that get through punch holes in bridge decks typically, not hitting support structures. Russia would need to eliminate all road and rail bridges over a 1,000 km length AND keep them eliminated as Ukraine scrambled to repair them.

Believe me, if Russia could do this it would have been done as soon as the Kiev push was called off. Russia is not even close to being able to do this.

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60% that is amazing!!!

the star wars spec sheets do not sell 60%!!

who is running the layered air and missile defense, with systems that have never been demonstrated elsewhere?

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Strangely they are Soviet systems. Moscow is ringed by the modern versions. I don't know why I bother with people that know nothing.

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i do know a bit about air and missile defense.....

you're not as bad as sec def austin who claim us gifts, which are not optimal to missile defense, are hitting 100%. exercises i took part in we never claimed more than 95% using 'good stuff'.

the kill chain is a lot more than the unimproved [since before 2014] s-300, which who knows how they are calibrated...

the newer sam is s-400 which is deployed w/in russia and has been purchased by turkey.

the miracle you proclaim includes getting usa target and track data into an obsolete russian sam.....

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piffle!

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Dec 1, 2022
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I actually write a second substack about American affairs but that qualifies me as much as anyone else on the internet. Your attempt at an insult failed.

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60% get shot down? You actually believe that bs?

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Comrade Tovarisch this is brilliant operational tactical strategic analytic analysis. Suvorov, Brusilov, and Vatutin are all morons compared to you.

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So why would the Ukrainians be so eager to do this?

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What else can they do? Hold a 40k-60k force in reserve while they struggle to move forward in Donetsk and Luhansk ? Give up the momentum that they have supposedly built? No I believe they will keep pushing before the mobilised materialize.

Surovkin's hint of using freed up forces in other offensives is a nudge for Kiev to redeploy their built up forces either to buttress defences or go on offensives.

Would not be surprised if Kiev elects to attempt cutting the land bridge and Russia invites them to try. It would be touch and go for both sides, high risk winner takes all. Russia building defensive lines north of Crimea indicates they are willing to let Ukraine punch in deep hoping to destroy much of the attacking force which will not have the luxury of fortifications. Kiev will believe that by threatening Crimea they will have leverage over the Kremlin.

Of course there is another option where Russia opens a third and fourth front in the north and east, to keep Kiev from concentrating it's forces, and then proceeds with a defeat in detail plan sector by sector front by front.

Regardless of how Kiev chooses to employ them these troops almost certainly will cross the Dnieper again. Then Russia has a choice in approaches between continuing attrition or attempting annihilation.

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Kyiv not Kiev. This is russian propagandist who uses old russian naming of Ukraine capital.

I would not trust this commenter, no name, russian spelling, clear russian footprint pushing russian narrative, and will have nothing to do with vision or thinking.

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kiev is the victorian english government's name for the capital of the latest neocon adventure.

who is pandering neocon speak?

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btw why you did not use words from victorian era if you are writing on such an victorian English?

Just for you, pronunciation matters and victorian spelling had proper pronunciation.

russian propaganda is so weird with picking facts to prove they are right...

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Let's use moscovia instead russia then!

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If we're talking about propaganda, you sound like Goebbels, foaming at the mouth about "Jew propaganda".

Of course, by your logic, "Moscow" should be renamed "Moskva".

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punch through from belorus toward the rails from poland and cut off the usa supply lines.

drop a uk 'rivet joint' and engage usa satellites provding targets to the ukers.

putin's forbearance has been nothing less than saintly!

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Ed I think they will stay away from the Polish border so as not to provide a pretext (however ridiculous) for intervention. The Poles seem to be itching for a fight but for now they will have to be satisfied with sheep dipping polish troops as volunteers in the foreign legion.

If rivet joints and satellites appear on the menu then be sure the main course is not far away.

No, direct conflict between the main actors is highly unlikely as far as logic goes and neither party desires it.

Russia is being extra careful not to provide any reason for intervention and America is pushing as close to the red line without crossing it. (ATACMS ABRAMS)

It is like a great game with certain boundaries. Step out of those boundaries and step into the abyss.

Empire 's challenge:

Can Russia stop NATO in Ukraine without directly engaging NATO?

Can Russia maintain its economy?

Can Russia maintain internal stability?

Can Russia maintain its foreign partnerships?

Russia poses in return:

How much are you willing to sink into this; if at the end of all this all you achieve is some dead Russian soldiers and nothing else?

No Russian collapse, no NATO in Ukraine, no Ukrainian natural resources, maybe no Ukrainian ports.

These are roughly the stakes upon which the game is played.

While Surovikin tightens his lines and Zaluzhny prepares another charge (?of the light brigade?), the humble infantry man in knee deep mud squares his shoulders to face shot and shell and once again settle the final argument. For if he stands the day is carried and if he falls all is lost.

Note: Trade has not stopped, sanctions are mere eyewash.

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this is existential.

the neocons using nato are treading a nascent dilemma.

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I thought all Russian Trolls had been drafted. Anyway, with what? Russia does not have the resources for a straight-up fight with Ukraine, much less NATO. All those troops were lost during the charge to Kiev, So how are military operations further even closer to the untouchable NATO supply line in Poland going to be supplied?

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This comment hasn’t aged well 😂

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too old, why i have time to beard trolls here.

putin playing biden and truss' replacement....

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As indicated previously, i am actually agnostic on the withdrawal from Kherson, given the present circumstances.

I criticize the decisions that led Russia to the point where the withdrawal appeared necessary.

Until a third front opens and has enough personnel to actually do anything, it's so much hot air.

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And clearly you are a Western Imperialist plant who is betraying the Revolution.

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I like that!

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As the article illustrates in part to us, Ukronazis are adherent to political will, not military will. They must do so because their masters in America told them so. The bloodlust embedded within them thanks to 8 years of fascist education will certainly help. Has the terrible losses and lack of military victory stopped them at any point so far?

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I think this is indeed the way things are playing out. The Empire is a frog being boiled slowly and unable to see it.

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I think the Dems are demolishing the U.S. on purpose as part of the New World Order agreements plotted by The World Economic Forum. Does that theory sound too far out there?

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No. And its not only the US government (Dems and 1/2 of the Reps) the Globalists have captured. The Globalists also control most of the "West" and also all of the International institutions (UN, WHO, World Bank) with the exception of Hungary, Italy, and maybe a couple more).

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There's also partial capture. Russia pushing CBDCs on retirees is in-line with globalist scheme. Russia running a derivative gene-jab is in-line.

None of these things are binaries, and no nation state enjoys the kind of sovereignity we are still habitually thinking in terms of.

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These are just layers of cope as Russia simply becomes another isolated satellite of China, not unlike DPRK.

Kherson was Putin's only win, and now it is gone. I think some delusional Putinites will need to see Melitopol collapse in a few months before they understand that there is no Russian military, no Russian state, both these things simply don't exist. There is Wagner, there is Gazprom, there is a dependency on China.

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What does your comment have to do with mine?

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It depends on what you mean by "demolish." The Dems have business model where they give money from taxes or borrowing to their base and they will get their votes. The US will pursue military and cultural supremacy until it is bankrupted.

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What the "empire" sees is a heaven-sent opportunity to weaken Russian Military and economic power for the next few decades. All without sacrificing a single soldier. And all for the cost of a few months of the US military budget. Who could resist?

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Well it backfired spectacularly, just like the economic santions placed on Russia. RF today has the most lethal, battlehardened, modernised army in the world ... oh btw Russia has the 4th biggest economy based on PPP surpassing both Germany and Japan. Russia should be thanking the West for their debacle in this proxy war

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It takes 3 billion a month just to meet Ukrainian payroll. Russia has captured Ukrainian territory that delivered 95% of Ukrainian GDP. The energy cost in the EU is 6x, and UK 3x, and even the US at least 20% higher. The West is not prepared economically for this, since they are all mortgaged to the hilt. Worse, the USD is hogging all the debt liquidity, so soon Western countries will have to start buying their own debt, printing money and leading to high inflation. The US owes 31 trillion, 1.25 GDP, but worse is local and state debt which swells that number. The US is running a structural fiscal deficit, with no end in sight, est to be 113 trillion more in three decades. Worse, the US will want record military spending! There is only one result of this: Russia "wins," and the West "loses," and the US unable to find the resources to preserve its empire. Oh, and next there is China...

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Time to remove 'Mensa' from your Bio! 95% of Ukrainian GDP has been captured by Russia already...hahaha!

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Did you not know this? Mr Leadley, you are making a fool of himself. The territory Russia seized provided (over) 95% of Ukraine's pre-war GDP. Frankly, I don't think this is a matter of IQ, it is a matter of being well informed and fact checking before saying something stupid. I appreciate the attention though.

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Yes Comrade Tovarisch. During WWII the Nazis captured territory that delivered 200% of USSR's GDP. That led Stalin to immediately surrender. That's Mensa-level analysis.

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You miss the point: Ukraine is an economic basket case. They are depopulated, their infrastructure is destroyed, and the only thing that is keeping them afloat is Western aide. I'm not telling Ukraine to give up - I am urging Western nations not to support them. What I am pointing to is the gigantic financial cost to Western nations, just to enable the Ukrainian govt to sacrifice another hundred or two hundred thousand soldiers for nothing. By the way, I don't give a sh!t about Mensa, but pass that test and you have bragging rights buddy.

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We should not support Ukraine because Russia is our friend and surrendering to Russia is awesome?

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Open wikipedia first before posting 95%. Stop pushing Russian propaganda. Considering you can't even read wikipedia your comment is a lie + complete propaganda and BS. I'm sad for people who reads this and believe you.

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You're relying on the propaganda site Wikipedia? No wonder you're so misinformed.

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What sources are you relying on? Show your sources before posting meaningless arguments.

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Again, three billion a month d all the rest of it is obviously a cost that the US is willing to pay. The EU isn't given a say.

To put it another way, are you buying deep out of the money UST puts?

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So put up a counter figure. To be fair: Ukraine ia an economic basket case, and without proxies with deep pockets, Ukraine would have collapsed. Also, you imagine long term hundreds of billions support?

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If the West could not afford to support Ukraine, if it did not think that the price was worth it, the West would have ordered Ukraine to sue for peace.

As I indicated earlier, if you believe otherwise, then go buy a bunch of long-dated deep put of the money puts on T bills.

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You're assuming that because the West made a certain decision, it must have been a rational and sensible one.

That's an invalid assumption.

Check out these two pieces that analyse how the sanctions on Russia backfired:

https://bit.ly/3NxI8s0

https://bit.ly/3yPny1U

The West has been tripped up by hubris.

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I am not sure what makes you think that I made such an assumption.

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I heard Biden say Ukraine conflict was a vital US interest. I disagree. If it isn't one, then Biden is making a mistake. It has been elevated into a contest over a unipolar world order, which is bad for the US unless it is a vital US interest.

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I'll spell it out for MAGA-level reading comprehension:

Deflating Russia is a vital US interest.

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The Kabal that putsched Kiev just withdrew 18 billion from EUSSR pockets.

This after demanding and getting orders for 4 billion gene-jabs for 400 million citizens.

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Actually the "war" is between Globalist actor captured Western governments (of which the US is one) and Russia. China is a snake-in-the-grass, playing both sides.

Why do I say that? Because all the Globalist actors systems of (global) control are based, and designed by, Chinese domestic actors. China is striving for world control, they are open about that.

Russia is all alone. May God grant the Russian people strength to see the conflict through.

Freedom loving people in the West are trying to dislodge the Globalists infesting our governments. May God grant us success.

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Chinese secret mastermind fantasy isn't borne out by history.

Can china attack US warships and get away with it?

Can china steal US nuclear material and get away with it?

Can china coordinate 9/11 and get away with it?

Can china officially endorse midterm candidates and get 95% wins?

Someone can.

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No, but they can purchase all the players, and they have.

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So "globalists" who embrace other peoples are not alone, but Russians who reject other peoples are alone. That is some incisive MAGA analysis.

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The Chinese are too weak and are not a threat. We have them totally surrounded from Taiwan, Japan all the way to the Philippines. Their population is going down. The Chinese will be lucky they don’t get invaded by us like they have many times before. India is the new upcoming threat.

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You're in the majority

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Delusional. Russia is weakening, America’s military is strengthening. Russian war machine is being bled and their military incompetence is being showcased for the world to see. Unfortunate the new commander had to inherit such a shoddy operation.

Tell me, how is the special military operation going? By my calculations it should have been over 9 months ago

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I'd like to see those calculations of yours however I am useless at reading scribbles written in crayons....

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Russia weakening? I think you're projecting that delusion.

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I think terms like "delusional" are thrown around these days a little too often. Somebody is going to be eating their words from whichever side I am not sure. But I know with certainty that one side will suffer great indigestion.

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Then maybe you calculated wrong and continue to do so.

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Sometimes comments are better than articles.

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Rick Hyne

just now

I believe your hypothesis is correct but I also believe the US cannot wait indefinitely and if the Democrats get a comfortable majority in Congress that some type of war declaration will be announced on both Russia and China.

The entire West is acting as if this will be over sooner than later.

What the citizens of Russia need to understand is that they need to defend their sovereignty. As stated, their land will be raped and pillaged. I'm sure bordering countries will expand their borders.

Every Western party has been promised something.

Russia will be gone. A message to others around the world that there is a single master, a single global president.

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Russia has nukes NATO won't take the chance of a strategic nuclear exchange. The fact is NATO doesn't see Ukraine as part of Russia and don't consider it existential to Russia, but the west are merely upholding what it views as liberal values in Ukraine.

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what atlanticists see as 'liberal' values..... is malarkey

the atlanticists, whether nwo or tools of wef, are using a 500 year old slavic inter tribal fight for the dneipr region as tool to ruin russia and keep china from rising....

outside the atlantic sphere.

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Russia will never be "gone." Don't discount BRICS, plus other Russian allies like Iran, Syria, and it's looking like maybe even Saudi Arabia. They're all in the process of coming together to form the Eurasian Economic Union, the goal of which is a multipolar world to rival the West's/WEF's ambitions for a unipolar, one-world order. Ukraine is just one chess move on the overall game board.

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Satan, president of West

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Who is the single global president please?

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According to Scripture, Satan is the 'ruler of this world'; a point Christ did not dispute when tempted with 'ALL the kingdoms of the world' offered by Satan in the temptation in the desert. (Mathew 4:8) That is why Christ prayed his followers should be 'No part of the world' John 17:14.

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And further, this is the prophecied Reign of Esau.

To know when the bus will arrive it helps to know what time it is.

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The (as yet) unrevealed anti-Christ.

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Psst. It's plural.

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Ukraine is not fighting Russia, it’s fighting Iran and China. Russia is merely an insignificant pawn of Asia in this geopolitical game. The second Iranian support dries up Russia will be defeated.

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American humor!

Very funny!

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I am not dooming. I am being realistic.

And you are high if you think that the Empire is even close to giving up.

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LOL you’re delusional. You’re describing the American Empires strategy of bleeding out the Russian war machine but you’re claiming it is the Russians attempting to weaken the Americans. It is the opposite and you are either a troll or extremely brainwashed. This is a golden opportunity for the US to weaken Russia without engaging in direct warfare. That is what we are witnessing - the weakening (yet again) of the incompetent Russian empire.

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Here's an idea. Turn off the propagandist mainstream media and look to independent media to give you the REST of the story. Then come back and share with us what conclusions you have reached.

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But Russia has this entire war on its border and doesn't need to drag everything 1000km from polish border. Ukraine is transporting this entire stuff through long route by intact bridges, rails, roads and tunnels. Russia is allowing this and nobody knows WHY.

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Russia is bleeding out the "donators". the more the NATO-bastards deliver, the more will be destroyed. if Russia would have decided to shred all in Western-404, they would have had to manage the "help" quite different.

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In Vietnam, the US would knock down bridges, etc. , only to see them up and running again within a day or so. Stated-simply, because they can be readily repaired or built around, unless within continued artillery range, tunnels, bridges, etc can only be put out of longer-term service by aircraft or missiles. All this requires air superiority, or a lot of missiles, which the Russians are short of.

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Thanks for your take, Vlad.

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Great analysis. Don't underestimate the West escalating because they know they are in an untenible strategic position. I hear a Russian missile hit Poland today...

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It is possible that west may do something desperate but it is unlikely.

Milley's statement has pretty much confirmed that militarily there is no direct intervention to be expected.

Biggest giveaway is the status of trade. Setting aside the eyewash of sanctions trade overall has picked up. Crises has been good for energy prices/profit and metals are essential for corporate America.

A trap was set and Russia managed to not fall in.

All parties realise it. Russia still has to clean up on the battlefield but that is not where the real war will be pursued. The general on that front is Lavrov not Surovikin. The only success so far has been the Nord Stream fiasco but that may in time also turn out to be detrimental to overall calculus.

Deindustrializing Europe may put America on a better footing against China in the short term but the cost of loosing Germany France Australia Saudi UAE Brazil etc may not be profitable or prudent in the long term. If dollar actually had to compete with currencies backed by something real then that national debt would start looking very worrisome.

As for the Poland missile incident I am sure some guttural noises will be made but nothing is to come out of it since the image of the fragments clearly show it belonging to an S300 rocket fired by Kiev.

There should be no fallout of any significance unless the Polish are really enthusiastic about going in without NATO. NATO by all indications does not want to fight an actual war.

Things are developing and miscalculations may occur, desperate attempts may be made but as of right now I believe this is where things stand.

Next big event is likely to be global financial meltdown that will see some sink some swim but none unscathed.

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What are you doing here, when Mother Russia needs your services? I thought all the Trolls had been drafted and sent to war so some oligarch can buy another toy. Yet here you are, for now. Anyway, Russia picked this fight, not NATO, which was pretty much moribund.

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You simplify the situation to make insults. It is becoming rout to equate non-Ukrainian perspectives with Russian propaganda. My observation is that if you start believing your own propaganda then you are lost. Don't count on continued Western support...

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Comrade Tovarisch, if this is struggle against American empire then why is Ukraine complaining American empire isn't giving enough weapons?

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That's an easy one. There is never enough resources in war. Besides, the conflict is two levels, not just one. The first concrete level is fighting on the ground, the second is a financial. For every dollar the West gives, it costs them more than 10x in debt, social unrest, and institutional failure. We have a phrase for this: Ukraine is a black hole for the US/NATO/the West. Russia is just getting started...and eventually there is China.

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Lol and of course Ukraine isn't a black hole for Russia, because Putin is awesome Comrade Tovarisch?

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Against better judgement...

Empire prepared well, there were more Javelin, Stinger etc in country prior to the 24th than Russia probably has active tanks, helicopters.

The expectation of Russia had been that they would charge headlong into a force on force engagement over prepared defences, getting into urban battles taking enormous casualties as such actions involve.

Even if the Russians won these engagements as was likely it would be at a very high cost in men and materiel.

Next phase would have been a low cost insurgency that could be run indefinitely (through Poland Baltics) till Russia bled out. Evidenced by SBU successes and cells uncovered till date.

Unfortunately Russia decided not to play this game. After securing vital terrain Russia decided to sit back and lob 152 mm HE, from the peripheries of the map.

Having expended approximately 1.5-2 mln rounds already, they don't appear to be slowing down.

I suspect even the general staff has any idea how many 152 HE they have in stockpile.

Of course if they run out they can always turn to Kim as reported by reliable resources.

Meanwhile I hear the other Kims are to contribute an astronomical 100,000 rounds of 155 he to the Kiev charity drive. Not sure if Seoul or Washington split the bill.

Do note that 152 mm from Soviet stockpiles is already paid for whereas future 155mm will have to be paid for.

Also you would be glad to know that 155mm costs between 5-10 times more than 152 mm. Not much difference between them except who manufactures them and where. State enterprises vs Mil Corporations.

Makes one wonder if Russia will run out of artillery shells before Kiev runs out of support and/or conscripts.

See it's one thing firing Javelins out of windows blowing up cars and trucks shelling market squares, quite another engaging in an artillery slugfest with an army that is built around artillery. (HIMARS or no HIMARS)

Empire was prepared but for a different type of war

I am sure they can cope, just that it's going to cost a bit more.

Then again a few million here a couple of billions there and suddenly the costs start adding up and you start wondering ...,

p.s. to those interested in serious discourse I do apologise for any frivolity in tone.

I do however believe this to be an important aspect of the course of events that we are witnessing.

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Russian artillery is unguided and requires a long intensive supply chain on a limited number of rail lines that are under continual observation. Just watch where the trains unload. Then a quick further glance tells you where the ammo dumps are. Dial in the GPS coordinates into a precision guided rocket or two that outranges the Russian artillery, no more Russian Ammo. Very likely, you can use the Ammo dump to locate the artillery too.

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Lol. The person without name gives a lot of trust in the comment! Welcome to Russian propaganda bots world!

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Oh, hi, Ukranian propaganda bot!

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Oh. Ukraine does not need to invest in bots when Russia will fail without pushing its propaganda.

Don't forget we can send combat mosquito after you!

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You right, workforce of full troll office is cheaper than one bot developer.

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Comrade Tovarisch, why are you sitting here typing instead of being mobilized and fighting for Mother Russia? You will get excellent Mosin rifle to defeat Ukrainian HIMARS. Comrade Tsar Putin will get very angry if you don't move.

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That exactly shows that all Russian propaganda bots comments are fake and does not represent people's opinions. Which means Russians does not have opinions they are blindly follow Tsar and kiss his a...

Second I don't troll, isn't that your propaganda? Nebenzya says, rashists believe, so just be afraid of pigeons, mosquitoes and dirt, as they might be from Ukraine.

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Thank you .

Logic and saving lives is the good enough reason to withdraw....

I appreciate your work, thank you for keeping the Russia related posts free to us.

The perspective you bring gives clarity and a concise analysis of difficult situations.

Rock on.

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Well, I am not sure if the issue is to be popular. I rather try to understand what is going on and MSM is really constructing a huge fog of propaganda.

Anyway, Serge, there is another answer to Odessa move - from Andrei from the Saker: “Another option might be to move not West but North and then turn West to basically take all the NATO defenses around the Black Sea coastline from behind.”

As for optics.....it is commented right from the beginning of this operation that Russia is bad at PR. The question is who is the recipient of this PR? The West? Then, one can say that Russia simply does not play by those rules.

THANK YOU for your analysis.

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The western media narrative runs orthogonal to reality, so there's no reason whatsoever for Russia to attempt to influence it to their own physical and economic detriment.

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Very interesting maneuver if they can use it

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I think MacGregor is right. Russia wants to end the war; since US/nato are not agreement capable, there must be a crushing win. But they can't start until the ground freezes enough to support the vehicles, & it may not do that on the south coast regions.

I live in midcoast Maine, right at the 44th parallel, roughly same as Kherson. It is mud season now & there is no guarantee the ground will freeze in any given winter, never mind freeze enough to hold heavy vehicles. Eg, I usually can bring in a few thousand pounds of hay between Christmas & New Years, but some years I can't & have to move my car outside & use my high & dry garage for hay storage instead. The trend in recent years has been for later freezing, and not freezing. Or freeze - thaw - refreeze, but never deep enough for the hay truck. Probably similar over there.

Russia is building up heavily in the north in Belarus, as well as fortifying the south. The Kherson soldiers are getting a rest. The northern, inland areas will freeze for sure. They can close in from the north, the west & maybe also the south.

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Maine is temperate oceanic while Kherson is temperate continental climate. Big difference.

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Large bodies of water have a significant local impact, as well as latitude. I expect the local weather on the coast in Kherson (mid-40s+ lat), not to mention Crimea, is significantly different than, say north of Kiev, inland, (mid 50s lat).

Regardless of how Maine is classified, reality is more like a lot of microclimates. Southern Maine has whole different temperature range than north of Bangor. And inland Maine is totally different than the coast.

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I am in the same region

3 miles from the ocean things are a bit warmer but a week of arctic air and the ground will solid. Betcha it’s frozen by the end Of the month.

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Iirc, forecast showed Kiev with 4-5 days at 17-18F next week before back to 25-30 ish. That will give a good deep freeze. Don't know how far south those temps will extend, though.

I'm not taking any bets on Nov or December tho, lol. Frozen ground is just one pre-req.

They also need to finish taking out power, which I'm not sure they've done yet. And there are likely other triggers we don"t know.

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I was waiting for your analysis. Now to read it 😎. THANK YOU!

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I am not going to make myself popular, but Russia has two choices. Either devote enough troops and resources to win (and the sooner, the better, as winning will only get more difficult with time as the West continues to lavish weapons, training and money on Ukraine) and accept that there will be significant casualties along the way, or sue for peace on whatever terms Russia can get.

This "war by half-measures" is not working and has not been working for a long time now.

This is not difficult.

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A war of attrition requires patience.

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We've been hearing for months now that Ukraine is out of men, it's about to break.

It hasn't happened.

In fact, whatever Ukraine’s real losses, the territorial gains were obviously worth it to Bankovskaya and its American master.

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Surrendering cities without a fight is not even a war of attrition.

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Ah, but who is being attrited?

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What a lot of people haven't realized - which is strange for anyone who has had to live in the real world for a bit - is that "wishing don't make it so."

Brian over at The New Atlas has done another great job of analyzing the latest weapons donation from the Pentagon.

He also makes some comments about what "attrition" means in practice - especially how it is working out in the demilitarization of Ukraine [and, by happenstance, the ongoing demilitarization of Europe and NATO - who would have thought that Russia would have gained such an unforeseen (at least by me) bonus?]

https://rumble.com/v1tnr6v-russias-de-militarization-of-ukraine-continues-us-sending-decades-old-arms-.html

"Update on Russian military operations in and around Ukraine for November 11, 2022.

- Russia completes withdrawal from Kherson city to east bank of the Dnieper River;

- Ukraine has lost its last major opportunity to corner and destroy/capture large numbers of Russian forces/equipment;

- Russia continues stated process of de-militarizing Ukraine;

- US aid to Ukraine becomes increasingly unrealistic - Hawk missiles designed in the 1960s and unused for 2 decades are being "refurbished" for a lack of better options;

- "Avenger" systems to be sent in small numbers (4) which are essentially Stinger missiles attached to a Hummer - after training for Ukrainian operators is completed;

- Dwindling amounts of basic ammunition continue to be sent to Ukraine, prolonging the conflict, but not in quantities to even allow Ukraine to hold what it has;

- As Russian forces withdrew from Kherson city, they advanced elsewhere in southern and northern Donbass.

References:

US Department of Defense - $400 Million in Additional Assistance for Ukraine (November 10, 2022)"

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Russia, there's a reason they've had to resort to buying loitering munitions from Iran rather than use their oh so plentiful cruise missiles.

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the reason is the pure existence of the "Empire of lies".

I asked the same question in late March a friend from Moskau, the answer was "Those are for you!" (the West!)

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It's the difference between two kids going shopping, one with daddy's money, the other with the money he earned from a summer job.

Trust fund boy isn't careful how he spends it.

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Good call. Those drones are cost effective and seem to be giving results. Here's an informative article discussing drones used on both sides.

https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/loitering-munitions-in-ukraine-and-beyond/

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I think the loser is the one that has to sue for peace.

We can wish Zelenskies will do that but he seems to be reading a different script.

There is strength in patience and slow motions as well as frustrations, I guess ultimately the logic is of the politics that the war is against the collective West, not merely nUkraine.

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Doesn't matter who is opposing Russia. The question is what Russia proposes to do about it.

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If it was Ukraine opposing Russia, this would have been over six months ago. Since it is another proxy war by Washington, DC, the stakes are much higher. We have been hearing for months that Russia will blow up the Kakhovka dam: Now that has become a possibility.

The USA and NATO are bankrupting both the USA and the EU with its wars of aggression. This may prove to be the straw that breaks them.

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That this is a proxy war is obvious, which is why Russia seriously miscalculated by not devoting enough resources to end Ukraine before the US and its vassals could further flood that country with weapons, training, intelligence and money.

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