I am talking here human behavior. I am saying, all considered and in comparison, Russian mobilization, or semi-mobilization, didn't turn out too bad.
I can't say that I disagree in the cautious approach Russian are talking in respect to protecting their soldiers' lives here. I expect that after all the training and prep work is done, in g…
I am talking here human behavior. I am saying, all considered and in comparison, Russian mobilization, or semi-mobilization, didn't turn out too bad.
I can't say that I disagree in the cautious approach Russian are talking in respect to protecting their soldiers' lives here. I expect that after all the training and prep work is done, in good Russian habits, we might see massive and concentrated offensives at various locales, with the build up not noticed. Same as the retreat from Kerson happened.
If you consider abandoning people who put their trust in you to the tender mercies of Ukraine and its Nazis, if you consider a lack of progress to be God results....
In Kerson, people had plenty of time to decide if they wanted to stay or go. I am sure that far fewer people that left actually wanted to go, but were afraid to stay, we know why. But this time people were not abandoned, so I think you are wrong here.
I really do not know what are the multiple reasons the operation is conducted the way it is conducted. I think only time will tell. I the meantime I can only keep my fingers crossed, hope, and hope some more.
Moreover, the Kiev regime needs propaganda victories such as these to ensure continued US support and to keep the EU on-side. Now the narrative is that this winter will be hard, but 2023 will belong to the regime.
Russian DoD and General Staff is making the real strategy that I am not privy to. I can only take things one day at a time. Can you do better?
As for 2023, will see how it goes. WWII lasted for 4, 5, 6 years. This is a light version of WWIII. Remember that the siege of Leningrad lasted about 900 days...
I can see the results, or lack thereof, against thugs that should have been an easy victory, but due to miscalculation and incompetence, was given more of a chance than it should have.
Anyway, a war of attrition against the West is not something Russia can win.
He is a frequent commenter on NC and worked for decades as high level public servant in the UK Foreign Office. He explains in many postings why rearming Europe and the West is an insurmountable task.
Even the US will struggle a bunch. And then is the logistics and the long supply chain to Ukraine. As for US / NATO directly fighting a land war with Russia, I really want to see that happening. I decided long time ago that it would cost Russians more to nuke my little harbour than any potential gains, so I am prepared to watch from a certain safe distance for the acute phase of a nuclear war.
In the novel The Years of Rice and Salt, the white race is almost entirely eradicated by the Black Plague in the 1200s. The novel is about the course of history after that. A WWIII would be something similar... Would the humanity and the world be better off or not is anybody's guess.
I read Aurelien, I read a lot of things written by a lot of people, real subject matter experts, amateurs, purported experts and wannabes, supporters of Russia and Ukraine. So far, very few of their confident predictions on either side have borne fruit.
For that matter, I recall the predictions of experts in the runup to WWI. In particular, it was widely believed by educated and informed people that any general European war could necessarily last a couple of months at most, because all sides would quickly run out of money. These were not stupid or uninformed people who espoused this belief, and the thing is, they were correct, if governments in WWI continued to operate according to the constraints of pre WWI finance.
For that matter, the US entry into WWI was brushed off, for the same reasons that you listed. In another historical irony, the entry of Romania onto the Entente side was considered far more consequential, convincing the German General Staff that they surely were doomed. Somehow, King Carol's army proved to be less than a juggernaut.
So I take any predictions, including my own, including and especially those that tell me what I want to hear, with a grain of salt, and I look only to facts as they are and what I know happened. Not as I wish or hope them to be.
Otherwise, your post seems to be an argument that WWIII cannot happen because it would be bad. Well, I got news - we in the West are led by sociopaths, and nowhere is it written that The Good Guys Always Win.
I didn't say that WWIII cannot happen. It is already happen, but is only in an incipient phase. I can see it as having good odds. Just now are reports of a stray Russian missile hitting Poland and killing 2.
What I have not seen evidence is on US capability to ramp up production. On the contrary. And you don't provide evidence on supporting this ability.
Also, the west does not have control of natural resources any longer...
As for Romania, it was surrounded from 3 parts, then Russians had the revolution, and the west did not start operations in Greece as promised.
That legislation is for an legislative order of goods, it does not prove that those companies can deliver. Do you have some proof Commenters on that post came with some information contradicting this ability.
I am talking here human behavior. I am saying, all considered and in comparison, Russian mobilization, or semi-mobilization, didn't turn out too bad.
I can't say that I disagree in the cautious approach Russian are talking in respect to protecting their soldiers' lives here. I expect that after all the training and prep work is done, in good Russian habits, we might see massive and concentrated offensives at various locales, with the build up not noticed. Same as the retreat from Kerson happened.
If you consider abandoning people who put their trust in you to the tender mercies of Ukraine and its Nazis, if you consider a lack of progress to be God results....
In Kerson, people had plenty of time to decide if they wanted to stay or go. I am sure that far fewer people that left actually wanted to go, but were afraid to stay, we know why. But this time people were not abandoned, so I think you are wrong here.
I really do not know what are the multiple reasons the operation is conducted the way it is conducted. I think only time will tell. I the meantime I can only keep my fingers crossed, hope, and hope some more.
Hope is not a strategy.
Moreover, the Kiev regime needs propaganda victories such as these to ensure continued US support and to keep the EU on-side. Now the narrative is that this winter will be hard, but 2023 will belong to the regime.
It didn't have to be that way.
Hope is my strategy.
Russian DoD and General Staff is making the real strategy that I am not privy to. I can only take things one day at a time. Can you do better?
As for 2023, will see how it goes. WWII lasted for 4, 5, 6 years. This is a light version of WWIII. Remember that the siege of Leningrad lasted about 900 days...
I can see the results, or lack thereof, against thugs that should have been an easy victory, but due to miscalculation and incompetence, was given more of a chance than it should have.
Anyway, a war of attrition against the West is not something Russia can win.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/11/congressional-amendment-opens-floodgates-for-war-profiteers-and-a-major-ground-war-on-russia.html
Have you read all the comments on that posting?
You are missing a substack in your list: https://aurelien2022.substack.com/
He is a frequent commenter on NC and worked for decades as high level public servant in the UK Foreign Office. He explains in many postings why rearming Europe and the West is an insurmountable task.
Even the US will struggle a bunch. And then is the logistics and the long supply chain to Ukraine. As for US / NATO directly fighting a land war with Russia, I really want to see that happening. I decided long time ago that it would cost Russians more to nuke my little harbour than any potential gains, so I am prepared to watch from a certain safe distance for the acute phase of a nuclear war.
In the novel The Years of Rice and Salt, the white race is almost entirely eradicated by the Black Plague in the 1200s. The novel is about the course of history after that. A WWIII would be something similar... Would the humanity and the world be better off or not is anybody's guess.
I read Aurelien, I read a lot of things written by a lot of people, real subject matter experts, amateurs, purported experts and wannabes, supporters of Russia and Ukraine. So far, very few of their confident predictions on either side have borne fruit.
For that matter, I recall the predictions of experts in the runup to WWI. In particular, it was widely believed by educated and informed people that any general European war could necessarily last a couple of months at most, because all sides would quickly run out of money. These were not stupid or uninformed people who espoused this belief, and the thing is, they were correct, if governments in WWI continued to operate according to the constraints of pre WWI finance.
For that matter, the US entry into WWI was brushed off, for the same reasons that you listed. In another historical irony, the entry of Romania onto the Entente side was considered far more consequential, convincing the German General Staff that they surely were doomed. Somehow, King Carol's army proved to be less than a juggernaut.
So I take any predictions, including my own, including and especially those that tell me what I want to hear, with a grain of salt, and I look only to facts as they are and what I know happened. Not as I wish or hope them to be.
Otherwise, your post seems to be an argument that WWIII cannot happen because it would be bad. Well, I got news - we in the West are led by sociopaths, and nowhere is it written that The Good Guys Always Win.
I didn't say that WWIII cannot happen. It is already happen, but is only in an incipient phase. I can see it as having good odds. Just now are reports of a stray Russian missile hitting Poland and killing 2.
What I have not seen evidence is on US capability to ramp up production. On the contrary. And you don't provide evidence on supporting this ability.
Also, the west does not have control of natural resources any longer...
As for Romania, it was surrounded from 3 parts, then Russians had the revolution, and the west did not start operations in Greece as promised.
If you think that US weapons production is already maxed out, then you are delusional. But if you insist:
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/11/congressional-amendment-opens-floodgates-for-war-profiteers-and-a-major-ground-war-on-russia.html
Otherwise, you argue with points that I didn't make.
That legislation is for an legislative order of goods, it does not prove that those companies can deliver. Do you have some proof Commenters on that post came with some information contradicting this ability.