It was an operation started by necessity - the leadership itself was torn about doing it. Compare that with how the US prepared for the second Iraq War. You spot the difference?
It was an operation started by necessity - the leadership itself was torn about doing it. Compare that with how the US prepared for the second Iraq War. You spot the difference?
That might be, but taking your statement as given, Russia still didn't manage sell such an existential war to its own population, and still can't sell a full mobilization.
Do you think that Europeans and the US would be able to sell to their population a full mobilization proposal against the combined Russia/China, because they are a threat to our democracy, our allies, and our values?
Maybe the guy in Vladivostok is saying that the ethnic Russians in Ukraine can very well emigrate to Russia, because there is lots of space and opportunities and need for bodies. The average Ivan doesn't see that the drawing on the wall for the Russian people and state, as conceived by the west, is a return to the 1990s...
I am talking here human behavior. I am saying, all considered and in comparison, Russian mobilization, or semi-mobilization, didn't turn out too bad.
I can't say that I disagree in the cautious approach Russian are talking in respect to protecting their soldiers' lives here. I expect that after all the training and prep work is done, in good Russian habits, we might see massive and concentrated offensives at various locales, with the build up not noticed. Same as the retreat from Kerson happened.
If you consider abandoning people who put their trust in you to the tender mercies of Ukraine and its Nazis, if you consider a lack of progress to be God results....
In Kerson, people had plenty of time to decide if they wanted to stay or go. I am sure that far fewer people that left actually wanted to go, but were afraid to stay, we know why. But this time people were not abandoned, so I think you are wrong here.
I really do not know what are the multiple reasons the operation is conducted the way it is conducted. I think only time will tell. I the meantime I can only keep my fingers crossed, hope, and hope some more.
Moreover, the Kiev regime needs propaganda victories such as these to ensure continued US support and to keep the EU on-side. Now the narrative is that this winter will be hard, but 2023 will belong to the regime.
Russian DoD and General Staff is making the real strategy that I am not privy to. I can only take things one day at a time. Can you do better?
As for 2023, will see how it goes. WWII lasted for 4, 5, 6 years. This is a light version of WWIII. Remember that the siege of Leningrad lasted about 900 days...
I can see the results, or lack thereof, against thugs that should have been an easy victory, but due to miscalculation and incompetence, was given more of a chance than it should have.
Anyway, a war of attrition against the West is not something Russia can win.
He is a frequent commenter on NC and worked for decades as high level public servant in the UK Foreign Office. He explains in many postings why rearming Europe and the West is an insurmountable task.
Even the US will struggle a bunch. And then is the logistics and the long supply chain to Ukraine. As for US / NATO directly fighting a land war with Russia, I really want to see that happening. I decided long time ago that it would cost Russians more to nuke my little harbour than any potential gains, so I am prepared to watch from a certain safe distance for the acute phase of a nuclear war.
In the novel The Years of Rice and Salt, the white race is almost entirely eradicated by the Black Plague in the 1200s. The novel is about the course of history after that. A WWIII would be something similar... Would the humanity and the world be better off or not is anybody's guess.
It was an operation started by necessity - the leadership itself was torn about doing it. Compare that with how the US prepared for the second Iraq War. You spot the difference?
That might be, but taking your statement as given, Russia still didn't manage sell such an existential war to its own population, and still can't sell a full mobilization.
Do you think that Europeans and the US would be able to sell to their population a full mobilization proposal against the combined Russia/China, because they are a threat to our democracy, our allies, and our values?
Maybe the guy in Vladivostok is saying that the ethnic Russians in Ukraine can very well emigrate to Russia, because there is lots of space and opportunities and need for bodies. The average Ivan doesn't see that the drawing on the wall for the Russian people and state, as conceived by the west, is a return to the 1990s...
Irrelevant what the US/EU could or couldn't do.
It's not as if Russia gets a consolation prize because the odds are really long or something.
I am talking here human behavior. I am saying, all considered and in comparison, Russian mobilization, or semi-mobilization, didn't turn out too bad.
I can't say that I disagree in the cautious approach Russian are talking in respect to protecting their soldiers' lives here. I expect that after all the training and prep work is done, in good Russian habits, we might see massive and concentrated offensives at various locales, with the build up not noticed. Same as the retreat from Kerson happened.
If you consider abandoning people who put their trust in you to the tender mercies of Ukraine and its Nazis, if you consider a lack of progress to be God results....
In Kerson, people had plenty of time to decide if they wanted to stay or go. I am sure that far fewer people that left actually wanted to go, but were afraid to stay, we know why. But this time people were not abandoned, so I think you are wrong here.
I really do not know what are the multiple reasons the operation is conducted the way it is conducted. I think only time will tell. I the meantime I can only keep my fingers crossed, hope, and hope some more.
Hope is not a strategy.
Moreover, the Kiev regime needs propaganda victories such as these to ensure continued US support and to keep the EU on-side. Now the narrative is that this winter will be hard, but 2023 will belong to the regime.
It didn't have to be that way.
Hope is my strategy.
Russian DoD and General Staff is making the real strategy that I am not privy to. I can only take things one day at a time. Can you do better?
As for 2023, will see how it goes. WWII lasted for 4, 5, 6 years. This is a light version of WWIII. Remember that the siege of Leningrad lasted about 900 days...
I can see the results, or lack thereof, against thugs that should have been an easy victory, but due to miscalculation and incompetence, was given more of a chance than it should have.
Anyway, a war of attrition against the West is not something Russia can win.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/11/congressional-amendment-opens-floodgates-for-war-profiteers-and-a-major-ground-war-on-russia.html
Have you read all the comments on that posting?
You are missing a substack in your list: https://aurelien2022.substack.com/
He is a frequent commenter on NC and worked for decades as high level public servant in the UK Foreign Office. He explains in many postings why rearming Europe and the West is an insurmountable task.
Even the US will struggle a bunch. And then is the logistics and the long supply chain to Ukraine. As for US / NATO directly fighting a land war with Russia, I really want to see that happening. I decided long time ago that it would cost Russians more to nuke my little harbour than any potential gains, so I am prepared to watch from a certain safe distance for the acute phase of a nuclear war.
In the novel The Years of Rice and Salt, the white race is almost entirely eradicated by the Black Plague in the 1200s. The novel is about the course of history after that. A WWIII would be something similar... Would the humanity and the world be better off or not is anybody's guess.